Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Economic News , Data and View ( July 14 , 2015 ) - Broader Europe ( Economic Data Splash - ZEW July German Economic Sentiment Index , Industrial Output For EZ , Business Confidence - France and Italy , Italian Inflation data - June ) ...... Greece in focus ( Finding The Bridge Financing , State Of Play - Domestic Greece Politics and International Scene , Creditor Talk tidbits )


Broader Europe....




ZEW July German Economic Sentiment Index at 29.7 (31.5 in June); Current Conditions Index at 63.9 (62.9 in June)




Industrial output in falls 0.4% m/m in May. : -5.1%. Full table here:






Business confidence in rises to highest since February 2014





Weaker service sector confidence in drags overall business expectations lower






June inflation up at 0.2% says Istat: Driven by 'holiday factor'







Greek financial situation ‘doesn’t support’ Czech entry, Czech President Zeman says. (BBG)












Greece Evening Wrap....





IMF Gre update goes much further than prev. Admit totally self defeating surplus targets. Tying themselves in knots













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So why would any Athens MP tomorrow vote for deal to make Greeks poorer when IMF ridicules surplus & growth targets, & governance of banks?




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So Germans ordered Greece to accept IMF in bailout, against wishes of , & now IMF says it won't touch deal with barge pole. Nice




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IMF blows up Greek bailout: "Greece’s debt can only be made sustainable through debt relief far beyond what Europe willing to consider".





IMF sustainability analysis - CONCLUSION - Greece is insolvent





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UPDATE: Greek PM Alexis Tsipras says banks may not reopen until a bailout deal with the eurozone is finalised





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Merkel should fire him now.






How is Schauble's Grexit push viewed in Germany?





his approval rating is highest it's been. 70% or so





IMF Declares War On Germany: In "Secret" Report Lagarde Says Greece Will Need Massive Debt Relief







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Greek laws written by foreign powers - will be invalid unless to the letter of EU-IMF diktat


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Potential countries against EFSM bridge loans to Greece UK Czech Denmark Finland Sweden





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Exposure of Eurozone countries to Greece up from around €150bn in 2009 to more than €300bn now. When will this end?











Greece Morning Beat ......





IMF declares war on Germany: WITHOUT HAIRCUT, GREECE WOULD NEED 30-YR GRACE PERIOD ON ENTIRE EUROPEAN DEBT STOCK, INCLUDING NEW LOANS -IMF







Schaeuble's Modest Proposal For Greek Bridge Loan: Pay Salaries In IOUs








EFSM Likely a dead letter - Germany backing UK position of NO...
















*STATHAKIS: GREECE WILL GET EU6B-EU7B BRIDGE LOAN TO REPAY DEBT








EC's plan to use EFSM of v. dubious legality, never mind politics. EC lawyer asked at Sun eurogroup if use possible. 'No,' was answer







Commission on Greek bridge financing: "We have to discuss calmy and go through different options...to pick up the most workable option"







*EU EXPLORING ALL POSSIBLE OPTIONS ON GREEK BRIDGE FINANCING





Dijsselbloem says bridge financing for Greece will not be easy










RT BABIS SAYS CZECHS DON'T WANT TO SHOULDER COSTS OF GREEK AID << rare UK ally emerges








Told that inside finmins meeting, "furious" at suggestion EU-wide EFSM may be used for bridge financing









Got my hands on bridge financing options memo for 8:30am euro working group call. Details at here:










Got my hands on bridge financing options memo for 8:30am euro working group call. Details at here:







Euro Working Group considering 6 options for bridge financing this AM, including EFSM, bilateral loans, ECB-held bond profits








Other 3 bridge financing options for : transfer of "buffer" cash from natl treasuries, securitizing Greek assets, EU structural funds










Unlike coalition partner , Left Platform's Lafazanis unequivocal: asks PM to reject deal, says lenders 'callous blackmailers'








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Finland's PM Juha Sipilä: If deal fails, a Greek time-out and Greece temporarily having two currencies is an option









Check out 's comments here: “I don’t think the Finns parliamentary group will vote for any loans to Greece”









If there is no bridge loan to Greece, it will default on the ECB on Monday, forcing the ECB to cut off Greek banks







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ECB could increase ELA only after 1st review of hypothetical 3rd programme concluded (late autumn?)-sourc-Meanwhile capital controls









Darkness at dawn: fragile plan to rescue Greece "We had serious doubts whether Tsipras understands" the source says







This is pretty much the feeling I had yesterday. If true, it's very sad. The quote comes from FT






*SCHAEUBLE SAYS RISK DURING NEGOTIATIONS LIES WITH GREECE




  1. *SCHAEUBLE: NEGOTIATIONS ON GREEK PROGRAM TO BE VERY DIFFICULT








Syriza ministers who broke ranks on Sat, Lafazanis & Stratoulis, may be replaced today, says, with broad reshuffle after Wed vote








Kammenos: won't be a problem with passing measures this week. Not clear if he says that's 'cos he'll vote or 'cos he knows opposition will









Kammenos says his party will only vote for what was agreed at leaders' meeting last Monday. "No more than that," he says










After meeting with Ind Greeks MPs, Kammenos says "there was a coup, Tsipras was blackmailed, forces in Greece want gov't to fall"









Govt's 2 lines of argument: They wanted to kick us out of euro so we're staying in & they wanted a coup so we're not going anywhere










Italian FinMin Padoan: "Only the French, tiny Cyprus and Italy were in favour of a compromise with ". ()







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Athens drafts bill as lenders look for ways to cover short-term funding







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missed another 460 M€ payment due to yesterday. Arrears now total 2bn€.










New board meeting on Greece expected today Another missed payment, an even more pessimistic DSA & a third program should provoke some debate







Greek bonds continue to rally in anticipation of QE or OMT or what ever. 2y yields drop to 24%, 10y to 12%.











fails to make another payment but repays Samurai bonds to avoid official default.






Greek drama far from over. Now Tsipras faces the toughest sales job in order to get the deal through parliament.