Monday, July 13, 2015

Greece Report ( July 13 , 2015 ) - Overview the Day After The Tentative Agreement Reached To Reopen Bailout Three Talks ( Greece Needs 7BN By Next Monday - ECB / IMF Obligations Coming Due Or Overdue , Bridge Financing Details , Market Relief After Deal , Political Impacts For Syriza , Greece Reaches Deal Significantly More Restrictive Than Rejected 8 Days Ago Sums That Up Neatly - Some Key Provisions / Links To Full Deal In Principle With Lists Of Tasks , Odds and Ends )


Evening Wrap.....






Another month of arrears due to IMF ....













If is right, then Stathikis's statement that all deposits are safe is not remotely credible:






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Seem to be the point - Afraid of a European spring --- Slovakia's Finance Minister -->






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What thinks about the deal: 52% for new loans vs 44% against; 57% say reform measures ok (22% want more; 13% less). (1/2)





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Greek civil servants union calls strike for Wed; local authority staff & pharmacists to walk out too to protest Parlt vote on new austerity.






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Important: Even if Greece fulfills conditions, these are only the "minimum requirements to start the negotiations"









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Parliament speaker Zoe Constantopoulou tells she has no intention of resigning ahead of apparent censure motion









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STUBB: NO EUROGROUP AGREEMENT ON BRIDGE FINANCING FOR GREECE






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MPs from SYRIZA's Left Platform will likely abstain/be absent from vote on prior actions but not considering resignation - Skai TV








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confirms he talked with Greek opposition leaders to "secure measures will pass" in Parliament. Protectorate.








Brill, harrowing account of a brutal night in € history by (Juncker fell asleep)


















Morning Tweets...








GREEK FIN MIN OFFICIAL SAYS GREECE WILL EXTEND BANK HOLIDAY. Unclear for how long






GERMAN VOTE ON GREEK BAILOUT EXPECTED JULY 17: SPEAKER







Stubb of Finland:"I'm a little bit miffed that the hardlines are getting shafted here". Says IMF involvement is a sine qua non for Europeans








Tentative Deal Strips Greece of Sovereignty, Makes Debt Relief Dependent on Complainece: The tentative deal de...









Think I figured why needs €7bn by Mon: €3.5bn bond, €0.6bn interest on that bond; €1.5bn arrears, €1.6bn owed IMF in July








Here's amt of bridge financing still to be decided by : €7bn by Mon, €5bn by Aug.














Lest everyone forget, final statement makes clear there's no bailout yet. This deal just on reopening talks










Bond markets cheer that Greek bonds will become eligible for 's QE programme, ones Greek bonds transferred to ESM











SYRIZA senior official tells me:"with such an important rupture within party- how can we avoid elections"








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which means that by January 2016 there will be nothing left to bail-in in Greek banks beyond ELA & insured deposits.











Citi: Tsipras returns to Athens w/ a deal significantly more restrictive than that rejected by Greeks 8 days ago.









participation in ESM program, a precondition for the Eurogroup, would first depend on paying its arrears, EU spokesman says.









Tsipras & Kammmenos meeting this afternoon & Independent Greeks MPs to hold talks at 8.30 a.m. tomorrow, reports









SYRIZA senior official tells me dissent w/in SYRIZA likely to lead to elex; opposition parties to vote in new bailout










risks still high, €50bn in Asset sales not realistic, ABN says.








Read it and weep - full Council statement on Greek humiliation









"Grexit might have been avoided for a couple of weeks or – in a best-case scenario – for a couple of months" -












also bound by agreement to reverse any legislation that bactracks on previous reforms or to offer compensating measures










The biggest risk now is implementation in the coming days, weeks, months against the background of a deepening recession









said to hold Emergency Funding ELA for Greek banks steady at €89bn. (RTRS)














Dijsselbloem 'The banks have to be refinanced from aid program, but after that I take it that they’re worth money and then we can sell them'











Slovak PM not sounding very optimistic “It would be a small miracle if Greece meets the commitments that Prime Minister Tsipras has pledged”












1. Worst deal offered to Greece in last 6 months 2. Germany lost monpol argument, still owns fiscal policy 3. Huge slap for Podemos







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How past (IMF) predictions for Greek privatisation proceeds turned out. (From the latest DSA)
















Copies of what EU officials said were 'final conclusions' from 14-hour summit via on Greece. Via











A small victory re €50-bln assets fund. To be set up in Greece + managed by Greek authorities (under supervision of European institutions).














Clarification:Merkel called for laws passed in Greek Parl since Feb to be annulled, saying Greece will be given help for humanitarian crisis














. concedes deal will be difficult to implement and 'may be recessionary' but says Greeks will back as gives hope of recovery.










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Deal agreed in princple but no complaceny, plenty of hurdles to fall over - approval of Greek & other parliaments as well as final details









And again - no haircut.










has to get this deal(tougher than what was rejected) into law by Wednesday - Syriza splits & new elections inevitable.








Summary of talks: agrees to everything & more that he told ppl to reject in . (temporarily) off table.








It's official!







Some More  Key Provisions of Sunday Agreement.....






The new Greek fund. Read carefully, please.









The Greek authorities must legislate without delay a first set of measures. These measures









Greek banks: The ECB/SSM will conduct a comprehensive assessment after the summer. Try to imagine the shortfalls








The part of Euro Summit statement about debt sustainability. Conditionality everywhere.