Typhoon Francisco....
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/18/double-whammy-drenching-in-japan-super-typhoon-francisco-may-follow-wiphas-path/
Double whammy drenching in Japan? Super typhoon Francisco may follow Wipha’s path
Just one week following a deadly dousing from Typhoon Wipha, a second typhoon could deluge Japan. On the heels of Wipha comes super typhoon Francisco, about 250 miles west-northwest of Guam, tracking north-northwestward.
Long-term track guidance takes super typhoon Francisco on a course generally towards Japan, with another round of rain and wind possible some time between Wednesday and Friday next week.
Typhoon Francisco (NOAA)
Over the last 36 hours, Typhoon Francisco has rapidly strengthened and, with maximum sustained winds around 155 mph, is the equivalent of a high-end category 4 hurricane. As its peak winds exceed 150 mph, it has earned super typhoon status.
Its current satellite presentation exhibits the traits of an extremely powerful cyclone, with a well-defined eye surrounded by heavy thunderstorms.
Francisco is expected to hold its own over the weekend, before steady weakening is forecast next week.
By next Wednesday, around the time Francisco may be approaching Japan, peak winds are expected to have decreased to 80-85 mph.
Still, should even a much weakened Francisco make a direct hit on Japan, it would likely bring a second round of torrential rain following up to 33 inches of rain from Wipha.
Wipha’s rain caused mudslides and flooding, leading to 18 deaths. At the Fukushima nuclear plant, the level of radioactivity spiked after heavy rains may have lifted contaminated soil according to EuroNews.
Track forecast for Typhoon Francisco (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center cautions forecast confidence for Francisco’s track is low, so it’s certainly possible the storm just grazes or avoids Japan altogether.
It’s a storm worth monitoring, and we will update on it next week.
Tropical Weather Discussion
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ReplyDeleteHi fredw.
DeleteThis storm and the last,Wipha, occured following solar flares. The flares are occuring because Mercury transited between Venus and the Sun. Same set up as last spring when we had the only X flares of 2013.
Mercury is about to transit between us and the sun in the next couple weeks so i think we'll see more flares. Tune in to solarham.net to see the show,click on CME prediction animations and click on the Goddard set to see Mercury/Venus /Earth.
All of the hurricanes/typhoons in the last 2.5 years have followed solar flares, since I've been watching solar flares at Nat's blog following the 3/11/11 Japan quake.
Including Sandy one year ago next week.,that flare made the solarham top 10 list for cycle 24.
Also ALL the large quakes have followed solar flares,(like the one in the Phillipines last week.
cheers,NW
And although we are now seeing solar flares, this cycle is the smallest in 190 years. http://iceagenow.info/2013/10/current-sunspot-cycle-weakest-190-years/
DeleteThe next 3 cycles are predicted to be nill.
Welcome aboard NW ! Good to see you here , was hoping you would come through at some point to chat !
DeleteThanks fredw,great blog ;-)
DeleteMy new profile pic shows the cme on 10/16, the day Typhoon Fransisco became a TD. I've saved many similar sets ,it's been fun watching the show !
If I wasn't at Nate's blog ,I never woulda known..
cheers, NW
Morning NW ( glad to see you are able to post here successfully ! ) I know you have followed the solar flares and your comments regarding CMEs are also welcome here ! I think we all gleaned valuable info from Nate and each other at Nate's Economic Edge !
DeleteIt just amazes me that after watching major storms and earthquakes follow solar storms, and finding out there were major solar storms during the Katrina/Rita hurricane season, that there is really no info of the connection on the net.
DeleteOne might get one of my comments made somewhere if googling the subject and that's about it. That's just weird. I'm no astrophysisist, shit, I can't even spell it.
But to me, after watching solarham and weather sats and also the earthquake monitoring sites all at the same time, it's all so obvous, right in plain view.
And more recently, learning about the solar storms being induced by inter-planetary rotations and watching it happen as predicted,it's one of the coolest thing I've ever seen. I've always been a weather watcher, that's why I bought my first computer, but I never knew it was all so connected .
Thanks for puting up with my ravings, I know I'm obsessed with the suject ;-)
NW