Sunday, December 20, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( December 20 , 2015 ) Spanish General Election News ( General background and data as it develops ) ...... Greece In Focus ( N.D Leadership Election Today , Domestic & International Politics Impacting Greece ) ...... Europe Broadly ( Croatia , Ukraine , UK ) ..... Refugee Crisis ( Items Of Note In The News ) ...... Emerging Markets / Emerging Nations Items Of note ( Middle East Markets , Kenya Bomb On Plane Scare , Turkey In Focus , Opec & Oil )




Europe .....






Spain In Focus......







- Counting almost over (96.3%). Results: PP 121 seats, PSOE 92, Podemos 69, Ciudadanos 40.






Spain election:Acc to JPM task of forming govt seems easier for left bloc given role of abstension in parl vote to elect govt amid stalemate







- Results with 84% of votes counted: PP 122 seats, PSOE 93, Podemos 69, Ciudadanos 38.







PP and Citizens do not have a majority. PSOE+Podemos+ERC could make it. Didnt see this coming..


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With 57% counted: 
PSOE + Podemos: 165 seats PP + Ciudadanos: 156 seats Abs maj= 176









: No majority in seats for PP-Ciud. (Exit-poll) Only PP-PSOE or PSOE-Podemos-Ciud. Otherwise new elections...

















Rajoy will claim right to form gov't as leader of most voted party. Far from obvious how he would achieve majority.












AMPLIACIÓN: Sondeo TVE: PP 26,%; Podemos 21,7%; PSOE 20,5% y Ciudadanos 15,2%


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Only coalition that can reach majority with two parties in is & -- 195 to 203 seats. 176 needed.











Antena 3 exit poll: PP 121-124; Ciudadanos 46-50; PSOE 79-83; Podemos 70-74














We explained before the what would happen if no stable govt could be formed


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exit poll (): PP 114-118 seats, PSOE 81-85, Podemos 76-80, Ciudadanos 47-50. Podemos second most voted party.











Full report on so far: no major incidents but many anecdotes



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Spain: Turnout declines in --strongholds, -strongholds face increase.



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Participation at 2.30pm down just under a point compared to 2011: Interior Ministry website










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Spain Votes In "Watershed" Election As Three Decade "Duopoly" Falls: Full Election Preview









Could Spain end up with a pony-tailed PM today? casts his vote


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This candidate could be first Black MP in Spain, if things go way today














Spain votes today. If The Economist had a vote it would go to liberal Ciudadanos


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- Polls close at 7pm GMT. I will be tweeting results from and some initial thoughts from this account. Watch this space.










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Recent tiny underperformance of 's govt bonds is mainly linked to late surge of Podemos in polls. (via RBS)


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Good morning. goes to the polls today in too-close-to-call election w/ PP+Ciudadanos govt most likely outcome


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Greece......






392,000 people have voted in New Democracy's leadership ballot so far, reports . More than expected but less than in 2009








About 200k have already voted in New Democracy leadership elections.











New Democracy leadership elections extended until 20:00 tonight, due to high turnout.












Interesting graph showing comparative levels of confidence in govts & changes since 2007. Switz. top, Greece bottom.





















€3Β supplementary budget required for Greece But how is this even possible? :-P











Whats in it for you Your occupies and still sends refugees to . Yr not fit for







Europe Generally ....









Croatia turns to Christmas tourism for economic cheer











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Carpet-bagging, term used in UK "during the wave of demutualizations of building societies":










Carpetbagging in UK: "speculators who pour money into building societies", hoping to benefit if they become banks:









Budget balance as % of GDP, 2015 Saudi: -12% Japan: -7% Brazil: -6% UK: -4.4% France: -4% S Africa: -4% India: -3.8% Italy: -3% Russia










Refugee Crisis .......







forcing people to migrate in southeast: PM



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Danish MEP quits party over government plan to seize ' valuables, supposedly to help pay for their stay









Three images that defined the . Where are they now? We found out



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The real reason for Merkel's U-turn over her open door policy for refugees is very simple. 


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Burundi's refugee crisis - Over 210,000 people fled Burundi since April

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Steinmeier: UNSC resolution to have positive effect on refugees in Germany



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Emerging Markets / Nations News ......









Rousseff's Impeachment Supported by 60%, Datafolha Poll Shows







's 10y default probability jumps to 33% as rout continues.


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Looks like a camel shaped stock market crash. stocks drop after extends losses.


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Update: Kenya Airports Authority updates statement to refer to 'suspicious object' and removes mention of 'bomb' found on board plane



















Several passengers questioned over suspected bomb found on Air France plane
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State, private sector to share burden from raise: PM


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OPEC’s mkt-share strategy has cost global industry $1.45tn as 2015 average Brent price 44% lower than 2014 avg.
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