Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( September 29 , 2015 ) - Troubled Credits Watch ( VW and Glencore Data , Price action , Default probability ) ......... Greece Tuesday Morning Updates ( Economic data of the day , Bank recap items ) ........Deflation Watch ( Germany and Spain showing troubling deflationary signs ) ......... Broader Europe Concerns ( EZ Area Sept economic confidence rises , Turkey declines to host Europe processing centers , More QE to the rescue - traders pray yes ) ...... Asia / Emerging Markets / Commodities Crush Updates ( India cuts interest rates by 50 bps , Brazil CDS continues to widen , Japan closes down 4.1 % as part of broad Asian equities sell-off , China items of note , E.M currency routs continue )


Evening Wrap.....



Greece.....



Next Cliff - hanger deadline date for Greece.
















Earners of over 12,000 euros per year will see tax hikes




VW.....









VW: 1.8 million commercial vehicles affected by emissions cheat









Russia says didn't violate its environment standards. - Is Russia now buying Volkswagen shares together with China?






Spreading like the flu......







Five of VW Group Family of vehicles - Audi , Seat , Skoda , VW and VW Commercial implicated in Spain








Broader Europe.....











 










Glencore’s management will meet debt investors on Wed: BBG. - does being short the debt make you an "investor"?


















  Retweeted






With ultra-nationalist, anti-immigrant, xenophobe, with far-right legacy candidate throwing hat in the ring








Morning Tweets....







Europe.........








Amid Europe's migrant tensions, kindness arises too




















Investors continue to dump Germany Inc. Credit protection cost and so default probability rise for & Co.












VW 5y default probability continue to rise to almost 25% as company signaled it would recall up to 11mln vehicles.












Turkish PM: Turkey will not host EU processing centres









Euro-area Sept economic confidence rises to 105.6 Vs est 104.1... I'll have what they're having.









now down just 0.2%, as Glencore (+11.1%) displays what may, or may not, be a dead cat bounce.











+10%. Biggest decline on record followed by biggest pop on record.













Sep Economic Sentiment +7.9 points to 83.1, Consumer Confidence +0.6 points to -64.2 (EC).






















Deflationary pressure rises in Germany: German regional CPIs show weakness. (via Citi)










120 tractor is early on.








Merkel's conservatives dip to year low on refugee crisis: poll











*NBG SAYS PREDICTIONS ON SPECIFIC RECAP OPTIONS `PREMATURE'










*NATIONAL BANK SAYS EXAMINING RANGE OF OPTIONS FOR RECAP









De-risking continues in Europe. 's Dax trades 1.5% lower after open.











Spain Sept. CPI -0.9% Y/Y









2016 draft budget to be tabled on Oct 5 may assume recession ~1.5% this year vs insitutions' estimate of 2.3% (via )










IELKA expects the estimated drop in food retail trade by 1.9% in 2015 will lead to a decrease in VAT revenues by 14-15% (€90-100mln)










Investec analyst on with me 8am UK









*GREEK BUDGET TO FORECAST SMALLER GDP DROP THIS YR: KATHIMERINI









govt to try to renegotiate 2015 & 2016 fiscal targets claiming lower-than-expected recession. GLWT: Public revenue worse-than-expctd














to increase QE in the next six months say traders: Reuters poll - Reuters -











Glencore (GLEN LN) 5-year jumps 127 bps to 992











Spain Sept HICP inflation HICP -1.2% Y/Y








Morning Note: 1. India slashes interest rates. 2. Icahn warns 'danger ahead' 3. Asian stocks hammered. Nikkei -4%


















Who caused the ? explains why it's unfair to condemn Hungary and Serbia









Good Morning from Berlin. Global market rout deepens, Credit protection cost rise as investors smell some Lehman rat.












Emerging markets , Asia , Commodities ........







Holy crap 5yr CDS 540 +45











sets yuan midpoint at 6.3660 v 6.3729 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since Sept 18th)










Risk off continues: Nikkei closes down 4.1% at 16930.84 and Yen strengthens as mkts seem to prepare for credit event.









The other refugee crisis of 1.2 million Syrians by













1998 redux? Global sell-off accelerate as investors smell a Lehman type credit rat. Nikkei down >4%.












Watch: Powerful typhoon hits Taiwan and mainland China












CPC expels Xi Xiaoming, former VP of China's Supreme People's Court under graft charges












New Islands, new power: airstrips and strategy in the South China Sea.












The Lehman of the commodity complex? Glencore shares drop 27% in Hong Kong.









China To Implement Annual Cash Withdrawal Limits Of CNY 100,000 At Overseas ATM's -- MNI







INDIA UNEXPECTEDLY CUTS KEY INTEREST RATE TO 6.75% FROM 7.25%












China's Xi Says to Prioritize Energy and Financial Cooperation With Iran










Weak Reserves Spur Ringgit's Biggest Quarterly Loss Since 1997











Zambia's Kwacha Falls Most Since 2001 After Moody's Downgrade











Russia Reconsiders Tax Proposals to Ease Oil Producer Fears












Brazil's Ibovespa Posts Longest Losing Streak Since 2012 as China Weighs