Friday, August 14, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( August 14 , 2015 ) - Greece In Focus ( Greece's Parliament approves Third Bailout - after a long night of political bickering , Tsipras wins the vote - but the political cost is high - one third of Syriza MPs abstain or vote against Bailout and Snap Election could loom , Eurogroup today - remains to be seen whether Troika + ESM approve the Bailout before August 20th ECB payment comes due or if another bridge loan is required ) ..... For Broader Europe - Spectre of Deflation and lower than expected GDP Data will be a focus today , Oil and Commodities crush continues to be harbinger of slowing economic growth !


Morning Tweets....


Greece....




No comment from SYRIZA's Left Platform chief Lafazanis as he leaves Parl't. Y'day he declared intention to launch anti-bailout party





Greek PM Alexis Tsipras wins bailout vote, faces widening rebellion via







*IMF IS SIGNALING IT WILL TAKE PART IN GREEK BAILOUT, WIRTZ SAYS






Turkish fishermen claim Greek coast guards harmed a dinghy with 50 Syrians on board yesterday.








*GREEK DEBT RESTRUCTURING OPEN TO DISCUSSION, WEISSGERBER SAYS






Commission's tweets that bailout package totals €85.5bn, not €91.7bn as reported yday.








Greek media say Tsipras will ask for vote of confidence on August 20.






Tsipras loses minimum constitutional majority for minority gov't. It's up to him if he'll resign or not now.








parliament approves loan & MoU bill with 222 Yes votes vs 64 No votes. 11 MPs abstain.






Parliament approves 3rd bailout with 222 Yes votes, 64 No, 11 abstentions & 3 absent but 32 SYRIZA MPs vote against & 11 abstain







Skai TV puts gov't MPs who voted for 3rd bailout at 118. Below min of 120 needed to survive confidence vote & may lead to snap polls






*SAPIN SAYS GREEK DEBT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN OCTOBER





*SAPIN SAYS GREEK DEBT WILL NEED TO BE `RE-PROFILED'




's 2y yields drop to 13.5% as Greek govt secures votes to pass bailout in parliament.












Commission has agreed to prepare further bridge financing for Greece of €6.04bn in case 3rd bailout does not allow near-term payments (RTRS)







Broader Europe.....







Eurozone Finance Ministers to Discuss Backing Greek Bailout







Morning Note: 1. PBOC strengthens reference rate. 2. France + German GDP disappoint 3. WTI lowest since March '09











  • European GDP releases just keep missing forecasts: a chart







  • Finland stuck in a 3-year recession. Obviously needs a serious dose of "structural reform".













    Germany wants onboard4 bailout . wants debt relief commitment. ( ) is against. Another long ?








    saved from returning to stagnation. 2Q GDP grew by 0.3%, after 0.4% in 1Q, below exp 0.4% expansion.










    Very weak GDP data from Austria and Finland. Economies have both stagnated.








    Eurozone economy grows just 1.3% Y/Y in the year ending Q2 2015








    EURO-AREA JULY CONSUMER PRICES DECREASE 0.6% VS PREV MONTH







    EURO-AREA ECONOMY GREW 0.3% IN SECOND QUARTER VS 0.4% ESTIMATE







    Italy's economy grew just 0.4% Y/Y in the year ending Q2 2015






    ITALIAN ECONOMY GREW 0.2% IN SECOND QUARTER VS 0.3% ESTIMATE







    2Q GDP a touch soft: Grew +0.2% on Qtr undershooting forecast of +0.3%.







    Inventories and Fixed investments have ruined Q2 GDP numbers. (via Morgan Stanley)










    French Economy posted 0% growth in Q2: Private Consumption +0.1% Investment -0.3% Govt Spending +0.3% Exports +1.7% Imports +0.6%








    Despite ZIRP, $50 oil, and weak exchange rate, Germany & France are still tracking a GDP growth rate less than 1.5%





    Net exports save the day for German Q2 GDP data. But Morgan Stanley expects to shrink by 0.1% in Q3.













    GERMAN ECONOMY GREW 0.4% IN SECOND QUARTER VS 0.5% ESTIMATE ... very weak







    German economy grows just 1.3% Y/Y in H1








    German economy tracking just 1.4% growth for 2015








    German Exporters See Long-Term Fallout From Yuan Decline






    WTI Crude falls to 41.35, lowest since March 4 2009




     
    Oil prices head for seventh weekly fall




    Glencore sells stakes in copper, nickel mines for $290 mln







    From a year ago, price of WTI crude is down 56%, gold by 15%, copper by 27%, and sugar by 35%.