Monday, May 11, 2015

Economic News and Views ( May 11 , 2015 ) - Greece Updates ( Simply stated - catch up on the weekend news / meetings / political strategies / commentary ahead of today's EWG and Tuesday looming IMF payment ) .... The Critical EWG Meeting set for Monday afternoon , ECB data ( Overnight Loan Facility data , Excess Liquidity data , German Bunds watch ) ....... Poland Election News - First Round shocker as Conservative Challenger Duda surprises President Komorowski


Tweets.....


Marc poll for What should gov't do if negotiations not successful? Compromise 65.9% Rupture 30.7% No answer 3.4%





Marc poll for
Would thinks have been better/worse if ND had won elections Worse 56.6% Better 23.4% About same 16.7%





mtng on "will be important but not decisive. Things not ripe enough to allow to conclude": Sapin







's latest IMF payment is due in 24 hours — and Athens is desperate for positive news.













ONE TROIKA SCENARIO INCLUDES GREECE PAYING STAFF IN IOUS: WELT


Markets blew up the bunds and helped Greece:










BIG question: will GGB holders freak out if Greece does not pay IMF/ECB but promises to pay them and Europe loans.







Irony: Europe/Germany pushes GR over cliff re pensions/labour;Greece defaults on ECB/IMF and keeps paying Europe.






Why should Greece sacrifice countrymen to pay ECB after it dodged haircut in 2012. So thinks Syriza and co.






Tidbit: if Greece does not pay IMF/ECB, its not a credit event says S&P. Plus: no cross default on GGBs if GR does not pay ECB.







Word is that Greece has money to pay IMF on Tuesday. But what if it does not pay and then blames Europe. Divide and conquer!





Syriza pol to hedgie: if Europe does not bend tomorrow we will default on IMF



















Broader Europe.....








Bond markets still wobbly after last weeks crash: 10yr German Bund yields start around 0.55% to the week.













Eurozone finance ministers meet ahead of Greek debt deadline - live updates


















ECB SAYS 54 MLN EUROS BORROWED USING OVERNIGHT LOAN FACILITY, 108.48 BLN EUROS DEPOSITED






RT ECB: Eurozone Excess Liquidity Rose To €297.109 Bln From €294.442 Bln



















Looks as if opinion polls are losing the one election after the other these days. First UK. Now possible Poland.










Meanwhile in Poland






HFE expects another Bund crash as reflation trade just begun: Sees 10yr yields to rise to 2.5% by Jan, possibly 4.5%