Tuesday, October 22, 2013

September Non Farm Payrolls miss expectations ( actual 148 , 000 vs expectations of 180 , 000 ) , Unemployment rate drops allegedly to 7.2 Percent - Taper Talk off the table with those headline numbers ! Labor Force Participation remains flat at 63.2 Percent - lowest in thirty years !


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-22/dismal-jobs-reports-sends-sp-new-all-time-high



Dismal Jobs Reports Sends S&P To New All-Time High

Tyler Durden's picture






The 3rd miss in a row for private payrolls was enough to spark an engorgement of all things Federal-Reserve-liquidity related. Gold is jumping, Bond yields are tumbling, the USD is crumbling, and the S&P 500 is soaring to new all-time highs... sure, why not...



But but but the unemployment rate is at 5 year lows.... oh, we forgot, its irrelevant now that its "improving"... just as we always said it was when it was held up by any and all as 'proof' of the recovery

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-22/us-somehow-adds-691k-full-time-jobs-september


US Somehow Adds 691K Full-Time Jobs In September

Tyler Durden's picture





 
The last time we caught the BLS systematically making up data, specifically as pertains to the NFP-parallel JOLTS survey, the result was truly epic: a one time adjustment in which the Bureau did everything it could to, in one month, plug the gap we had highlighted, resulting in the most skewed (and hilarious) data series we had every observed.
This time around, the BLS has once again outdone itself, focusing however not on the JOLTS survey, but on the one aspect of the labor force that has dominated public attention: the impact of Obamacare on the distribution of jobs by full-time vs part-time. As is well-known, and as we have been reporting for the past three or so years but becoming particularly acute in the last 3 months, virtually all job gains reported by the BLS had come in the ranks of the part-time workers, and to the detriment of full-time jobs. This resulted in substantial criticism of Obama, and the impact Obamacare has on jobs.
Well, some time in the past month and a half, the Obama administration called up the BLS and told them to remedy this.
Sure enough, while the September Establishment Survey was a disappointing +148K, far below expectations, it was the Household Survey where the fun was.On the top line, the gain in jobs was comparable to the Establishment number: a timid 133K.
However, looking at the breakdown between Full-Time and Part-Time jobs reveals something simply hilarious. The chart below summarizes it.
In brief: according to the BLS' magic calculations, in one month, the month during which the so-called uncertainly surrounding the government shutdown hit its peak (if one listens to CEO apologists), the US work force saw the rotation of some 594K part-time workers into a whopping 691K full-time jobs, in addition to adding over 100K net new jobs in the month.
And like that, the mouths of all those who criticize Obamacare have been shit for good, all courtesy of Arima X 12 and a few goalseeked tweaks in Excel.




and.....





http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-22/september-nonfarm-payrolls-miss-148k-vs-exp-180k-unemployment-rate-drops-72



September Nonfarm Payrolls Miss 148K vs Exp. 180K; Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.2%

Tyler Durden's picture






September jobs are a disappointment at 148K vs expectations of 180K and private jobs only 126K well below the 180K expected, but August was revised higher this time, from 169K to 193K. Net for the two months, largely a wash.
From the Household Survey:
The unemployment rate, at 7.2 percent, changed little in September but has declined by 0.4 percentage point since June. The number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, was also little changed over the month; however, unemployment has decreased by 522,000 since June.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.1 percent), adult women (6.2 percent), teenagers (21.4 percent), whites (6.3 percent), blacks (12.9 percent), and Hispanics (9.0 percent) showed little or no change in September. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. 
In September, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.1 million. These individuals accounted for 36.9 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 725,000 over the past year.
Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio at 58.6 percent, were unchanged in September. Over the year, the labor force participation rate has declined by 0.4 percentage point, while the employment- population ratio has changed little.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was unchanged at 7.9 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
And the establishment:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in September, with gains in construction, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing.Over the prior 12 months, employment growth averaged 185,000 per month.

Employment in construction rose by 20,000 in September, after showing little change over the prior 6 months.
The Labor Force Participation Rate was flat at 63.2%: the lowest in over 30 years.

3rd monthly miss in a row for Private Payrolls...

as the unemployment rate drops to Nover 2008 lows...






Expectations beforehand......



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Complete Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview


  • Deutsche Bank 170k
  • Bank of America 170k
  • HSBC 171k
  • Citigroup 180k
  • UBS 195k
  • JP Morgan 195k
  • Barclays 200k
  • Goldman Sachs 200k

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