Can someone please explain this whole "Grecovery" concept to use because neither we, nor apparently the people of Greece which are not only unemployed and broke, but have negative savings, and collapsing wages, social benefits and disposable income, seem able to understand it.
Here is the latest absolutely disastrous news from Elstat, reporting on Q2 Greek Non-financial sector accounts
During the second quarter of 2013, disposable income of the households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector (S.1M) decreased by 9.3% in comparison with the same quarter of the previous year, from 33.2 billion euro to 30.1 billion euro. This was mainly on account of a decrease of 13.9% in the compensation of employees and a decrease of 12.4% in social benefits received by households.
This was the biggest drop in household disposable income since Q3 2012. Is this part of the Grecovery?
Next, the savings rate of the households and NPISH sector, defined as gross savings divided by gross disposable income, was -8.7% in the second quarter of 2013, compared with -6.7% in the second quarter of 2012.
So, households are broke, unemployed, and have negative savings. But at least the stock market is up. Is this, too, part of the Grecovery?
Finally, remember that myth about the suddenly accountable and responsible Greek government, which has a primary surplus, and is living within its means? Then please explain the following:
Net borrowing of general government (S.13) during the second quarter of 2013 amounted to 14.0 billion euro, compared with 3.8 billion euro in the second quarter of 2012. The increase in the General Government deficit in the second quarter of 2013 is due to capital transfers in the context of the program of state aid to specific banks. Net borrowing of general government excluding the impact of the support to financial institutions in the second quarter 2012 amounted to 2.6 billion euro.
This was the biggest quarterly government borrowqing in well... ever. Is this the final component of the Grecovery?
And some other independent data points :
- Greek 2Q Govt Deficit Widens to 16.6% of GDP From 11.0% in 1Q - obviously, this spells Grecovery
- Greek Debt Swells to 169.1% of GDP in 2Q, Nearing Pre-PSI Levels - this definitely must be the Grecovery, right?
The good news for all the broke, unemployment, incomeless Greeks: you still have your precious Euro.
and.....
Troika convinced Greece has to shut down ELVO and EAS, sources say
By Nikos Chrysoloras
Brussels - The troika is convinced that Hellenic Defense Systems (EAS) and Hellenic Vehicle Industry (ELVO) need to be shut down, sources in Brussels have told Kathimerini.
Greece’s lenders do not believe it is possible to save the two state firms as they are a drain on public finances, in contrast to other European countries, where companies in the defense industry are profitable.
Sources also said that the troika will insist on fiscal measures in 2014 that are certain to meet their targets so that Greece meets the primary surplus goal it has been set. Greece’s lenders are not insisting that these be horizontal cuts to wages and pensions but that the savings have to come from fiscal, rather than structural, measures. There will have to be spending cuts amounting to 2 billion euros, sources said. |
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ekathimerini.com , Tuesday October 22, 2013 (15:31)
and......
Greece made largest fiscal adjustment, says EU paper published 'by mistake'
By Nikos Chrysoloras
Brussels - Greece performed the largest fiscal adjustment in the eurozone between 2011 and 2013, according to a research paper by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, which was apparently published by mistake on Monday.
The paper, which examines the systemic impact of deficit reduction programs, was taken down from DG ECFIN’s site and Twitter account a few hours after being published but Kathimerini has a copy of the study and proof that it was published.
A Commission spokesman told Kathimerini that the paper was a draft and had been published “by mistake”. He added that the study would be published “in the coming weeks” and that research papers “don’t represent Commission positions.”
The study, titled “Fiscal consolidations and spillovers in the euro area periphery and core” says that: “By far the largest fiscal consolidations have taken place in Greece, 9 percent of GDP on the basis of the change in the structural balance over these three years.”
“Portugal has also undertaken large consolidations, close to 7 percent of GDP, while the adjustment in Ireland amounted to 4 percent over these years,” adds author Jan in ‘t Veld.
The basic academic conclusion of the paper is that the simultaneous adoption of adjustment programs in the eurozone made it more difficult for periphery countries, like Greece, to achieve fiscal balance and regain competitiveness.
“Spillovers from consolidations in Germany and core euro area have worsened the overall economic situation. A temporary fiscal stimulus in surplus countries can boost output and help reduce their current account surpluses,” the author argues in his abstract.
Even though Greece’s current account balance improved by 2.3 percent of GDP during the period in question, Germany’s also improved by 0.6 percent, meaning that Germany essentially continued to compete against the eurozone periphery and pile pressure on the already struggling economies of the south.
The projections in the research paper suggest that the contraction of Greece’s economy would have been 2 percent smaller during the last three years if fiscal adjustment programs were not applied at the same time throughout the eurozone.
The negative impact of these programs on fiscal multipliers is most pronounced in Italy and then Greece, with a factor of 0.9. The author says the impact would have been smaller if the adjustment programs focussed more on revenues rather than spending. |
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ekathimerini.com , Tuesday October 22, 2013 (12:24)
and.....
Further delay for heating oil subsidies
By Chryssa Liaggou and Prokopis Hatzinikolaou
Taxpayers eligible for heating oil subsidies will now have to wait until at least the end of November before they can collect the deposit of the benefit, as the electronic system for their applications did not come online on Monday as planned and will not be launched before October 28.
The delay in the launch of the portal on the website of the General Secretariat for Public Revenues (GSIS) in effect defeats the purpose of releasing the deposit, as it was meant to offer consumers some cash to buy heating oil ahead of the period when temperatures drop considerably in many parts of the country.
Professionals in the fuel trade stress that the new delay will hit sales and say that consumers are poorly informed about the allowance and very suspicious regarding the deposit of 25 percent of the total subsidy they are eligible for during this winter period.
At the moment trading companies are reporting an increase in sales to fuel stations, but demand from consumers has not yet matched that increase. However, a small increase in sales has been reported in Attica over the last three days. |
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ekathimerini.com , Monday October 21, 2013 (22:26)
Bourse rally continues on high volume
The combination of last week’s investment news concerning Fairfax along with the progress finally seen on the privatizations front gave fresh impetus to the local bourse, whose benchmark on Monday recorded yet another year-high, while turnover (not including prearranged sales) soared to the highest level in five months.
The Athens Exchange (ATHEX) general index closed at 1,196.84 points, adding 2.64 percent to Friday’s 1,166 points. The large-cap FTSE/ATHEX 25 expanded by 2.63 percent to end at 397.72 points.
Just as more and more people had been anticipating a swift return to lower price levels following a five-week buying spree, the bourse defied expectations, with the majority of stocks enjoying another session of major gains.
Warrants continued to woo investors, with the bank index climbing by 6.94 percent. Eurobank Properties, which along with Pangaia SA landed the 28 state buildings in the sell-and-leaseback tender on Saturday, grew 9 percent. National, the owner of Pangaia, added 8.11 percent. OPAP lost 2 percent.
In total, 100 stocks recorded gains, 45 sustained losses and 22 remained unchanged.
Turnover amounted to 193.3 million euros, up from last Friday’s 163.6 million. |
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/22/2013 08:01 -0400
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