http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2012/05/chinas-industrial-production.html
This irks me to no end. Ed Steer in his commentary writes on the shortfall of the SLV and GLD.
the SLV increased their short interest by 1.522 million shares (ounces)..a 13.54% rise.
the total short interest is a massive 12.76 million troy oz (shares)
the GLD was worse.The short increase increased by 5.360 million shares (.53 million oz.)
the GLD in total is short 1.76 million oz or 56 tonnes of gold.
no doubt the crooks covered some of their shorts during the past week's drubbing as the next reading will be on May 23.
(Courtesy Ed Steer and shortsqueeze.com:)
This irks me to no end. Ed Steer in his commentary writes on the shortfall of the SLV and GLD.
the SLV increased their short interest by 1.522 million shares (ounces)..a 13.54% rise.
the total short interest is a massive 12.76 million troy oz (shares)
the GLD was worse.The short increase increased by 5.360 million shares (.53 million oz.)
the GLD in total is short 1.76 million oz or 56 tonnes of gold.
no doubt the crooks covered some of their shorts during the past week's drubbing as the next reading will be on May 23.
(Courtesy Ed Steer and shortsqueeze.com:)
Well, the new short interest figures were posted over at shortsqueeze.com last night...and I wasn't impressed. It showed that the short position in SLV increased by 13.54%...or 1,522,300 shares/ounces. The SLV short interest is now up 12,766,500 troy ounces/shares...which is in the neighbourhood of 397 tonnes...more than six days of world silver production.
And if you think I wasn't impressed with the increase in short position in SLV...I was gobsmacked by the change I found over at GLD. Its short position increased by 42.76%...or 5,360,700 shares. GLD is now short 1.79 million ounces of gold, about 56 tonnes of the stuff, which is not an insignificant amount.
Of course these numbers don't include what happened to silver and gold during the last couple of weeks....and I would suspect that there have been major reductions in these short positions in both SLV and GLD since then, but they won't show up in the above mentioned report until May 23rd.
and....
The following is very interesting if Kelkar wins and forces the Bank of India to retrieve most of its foreign held, 265 tonnes of gold repatriated. It is my contention that much of the Bank of England's gold has been lent out to various operations and/or swapped with entities like the GLD. As I have mentioned to you on previous occasions, I do not think that Venezuela got any of its gold stored at the Bank of England. I think it would be safe to assume that the Bank of International Settlements has gold stored there belonging to India who in turn loaned India money to help in international settlements.
We will have to wait and see how this case develops.
(courtesy GATA)
We will have to wait and see how this case develops.
(courtesy GATA)
Indian central bank challenged in court to repatriate country's gold
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2012-05-10 14:37. Section: Daily Dispatches
RBI Gets High Court Notice to Explain Gold Deposits with Bank of England
By Dinesh Thite
Pune Mirror, Pune, India
Friday, May 4, 2012
Pune Mirror, Pune, India
Friday, May 4, 2012
A technocrat-turned-public interest litigant, Raghunath Shankar Kelkar, has challenged the Reserve Bank of India's move to deposit abroad 265.49 tonnes of gold out of its total stock of 557.75 tonnes by filing a public interest litigation in the Bombay High Court and has demanded that the precious metal be brought back into the country according to the provisions of the law.
Kelkar, 56, who used to manufacture computers, has filed the petition as he found that the move by the central bank contradicts Section 33(5) of Reserve Bank of India Act of 1934, which stipulates that 85 per cent of the bank's gold reserves should be kept in India.
The Bombay High Court bench, comprising D.D. Sinha and V.K. Tahilramani, heard the petition recently. The court noted that no one appeared for the RBI. The order stated, "Considering the issue involved in the present public interest lititation, we grant one opportunity to the RBI to put an appearance through its lawyer on the next day of hearing and assist the court."
Kelkar filed the petition on March 1. He said that he had sent three notices of the issue to the RBI, eliciting no reply. He has made the Government of India another respondent in this case. Kelkar is an avid RBI watcher.
He read the 17th half yearly report of RBI on management of foreign exchange reserves, in which the bank has said, "The Reserve Bank held 557.75 tonnes of gold, forming about 9.2 per cent of the total foreign exchange reserves. Of these 265.49 tonnes are held abroad in deposits or safe custody with the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements."
He said that the RBI move was in violation of the legal provision as the bank had put 46 per cent of its gold reserves out of the country.
The reason given for the action is that of safe custody. "Does the RBI mean that gold is unsafe in India? Does the RBI think that Indian security forces are incapable of guarding the gold treasure of the country?" Kelkar asked.
He raised a question in the petition: "In case there is a war between India and England in future, will our gold held by Bank of England be safe?"
He has made three demands in the petition: that the RBI be ordered to transfer the gold reserves of the country from the possession of the Bank of England and Bank for International Settlements to its own possession within the country; that until the final disposal of the case, the bank not be allowed to take any more gold out of the country; and that a detailed report be filed as to which bank officers are responsible for the breach of Section 33(5) of RBI Act.
The price of gold deposited outside the country is about Rs 80,000 crore. Kelkar is pleading his case himself, instead of appointing a lawyer. Earlier, when he thought that the country had suffered a loss of more than Rs 65,000 crore due to alleged mistakes of RBI regarding its market stabilisation scheme, he filed public interest litigation in the High Court in 2008.
His argument was that RBI lost Rs 65,065 crore in 2006-07 due to a fall in its valuation of investments in foreign exchange. The RBI had not taken this loss to its profit and loss account and the central government was also not accounting this in its accounts presented to the Parliament, he said. The petition was dismissed in 2009 on technical grounds, Kelkar said.
and....
Our first story is from Greece where we see that the unemployment rate hit a massive 21.7% last month rising from 21.3%. What is more alarming is the rise in the unemployment of the youth under 24 years of age to 54%. Greece has a total population of 10 million people and only 3.87 million are working (38.7%).
The USA employment picture is not pretty yet its total population to employment is 64%. The Greek government is certainly taking lessons from the BLS: the total unemployed Greeks totals 1.1 million souls out of the employment pool of 3.87 million which calculates out to 28.9%. If you look at industrial production, it suffered another loss of 8.5% which followed a 8.3% contraction in February and 5% in January. Greece is not in a recession, ladies and gentlemen, they are in a full fledged depression:
(courtesy zero hedge)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/10/2012 07:02 -0400
The USA employment picture is not pretty yet its total population to employment is 64%. The Greek government is certainly taking lessons from the BLS: the total unemployed Greeks totals 1.1 million souls out of the employment pool of 3.87 million which calculates out to 28.9%. If you look at industrial production, it suffered another loss of 8.5% which followed a 8.3% contraction in February and 5% in January. Greece is not in a recession, ladies and gentlemen, they are in a full fledged depression:
(courtesy zero hedge)
Greece's Jobless Soar By 42% As Unemployment Rises To Record, Industrial Collapse Accelerates
- BLS
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- default
- Greece
- Gross Domestic Product
- International Monetary Fund
- Reality
- Recession
- Reuters
- Tax Revenue
- Unemployment
As noted earlier this week, while the theater of Greek elections serves as a convenient distraction from the epic depression the country of 10 million is undergoing, the reality is that very soon it won't matter at all who is left to govern this ruined country. Because if previously we demonstrated the collapse in two primary drivers of government tax revenue, namely tourism and commerce, today we show the logical follow through to economic flatlining: jobs and industries. Sadly, both are getting trounced. As Reuters reports, "Greece's jobless rate hit a new record in February, underscoring the pain austerity policies required by the EU and IMF have inflicted on the debt-laden country which is struggling to form a government. More than one in five Greeks and one in two youths are out of a job, statistics service ELSTAT data showed on Thursday. The unemployment rate hit 21.7 percent from a revised 21.3 percent in January. In the 15-24 age group, joblessness stood at a record 54 percent." It also appears that Greece has been getting ideas from the BLS: a 10 million population, and a pool of employed at a record low 3.87 million! "Nearly 1.1 million people were without a job, 42 percent more than in the same month last year, the data showed. The number of those in work declined by 8 percent over the same period to a record low 3.87 million." In other words, less than 4 million people are working to pay off the country's bailout package and debt which at last check was about 200% of GDP? At least of all indicators, the GDP is collapsing the fastest. Very soon Greece will be treated to a merciful #Div/0 when attempting to calculate its debt to GDP ratio. We can't wait to see the IMF's face then.
From Reuters:
Budget cuts imposed since 2010 under the terms of the country's international bailout to save Greece from a chaotic default have caused a wave of corporate closures and bankruptcies.This has fuelled anger with established, pro-bailout political parties, which suffered a stinging defeat in May 6 elections that created a hung parliament in which half the seats went to anti-bailout groups.Joblessness was the highest in the country's biggest urban centres, particularly Athens, where the anti-bailout Left Coalition party (SYRIZA) fared particularly well in the elections, becoming the biggest party.Greece's economy is estimated to shrink by about 20 percent in 2008-2012, marking the country's deepest and longest post-war recession. More than 500,000 jobs, about in 10, have been destroyed in the process.
Recession? Make that the country's biggest depression ever, further confirmed by the collapse in Industrial production. Just observe the year over year implosion in this indicator: January-5%, February -8.3%, and now March -8.5%. The trend isnot your friend.
Greece's industrial production fell 8.5% on the year in March, after declining 8.3% on the year in February, the Hellenic Statistical Authority, also known as Elstat, said Thursday.Electricity production declined 8.9% compared with the year earlier, while manufacturing production fell 8.8%. Mining and quarrying output declined 7.9%, while water supply production was 0.5% lower.Austerity measures introduced as part of Greece's initial EUR110 billion bailout plan have taken a heavy toll on economic activity, weighing on consumption and investments.Earlier this year, Greece clinched a EUR130 billion second bailout needed to help stave off bankruptcy after promising European partners and the International Monetary Fund a tough reforms agenda and severe budget cutbacks.
Little to add here.
and....
In the following Bloomberg article, here is a summary of what Greece, the sovereign, owes the rest of the world. The total sovereign debt owed is approximately 395 billion euros. The creditors are the following:
1. the ECB
2. private bondholders
3. other public bodies like the EFSF and IMF
the total amounts owing to the ECB amounts to 172 billion euros made up of loans by the ECB and the target 2 balances. If Greece defaults then there will be massive margin calls on the 17 members which will cause Europe into spin out of control. Greece has also 143 billion euros owing to private bonds and bills with the remainder of euros owing by official organizations like the EFSF and the IMF at 80 billion euros.
Thus for future reference:
Greece's total liability to the ECB: 172 billion euros
Greece's total liability to private bondholders; 143 billion euros
Greece's total liability to official organizations like EFSF and IMF; 80 billion euros
total liability; 395 billion euros.
(courtesy Bloomberg)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/10/2012 11:35 -0400
1. the ECB
2. private bondholders
3. other public bodies like the EFSF and IMF
the total amounts owing to the ECB amounts to 172 billion euros made up of loans by the ECB and the target 2 balances. If Greece defaults then there will be massive margin calls on the 17 members which will cause Europe into spin out of control. Greece has also 143 billion euros owing to private bonds and bills with the remainder of euros owing by official organizations like the EFSF and the IMF at 80 billion euros.
Thus for future reference:
Greece's total liability to the ECB: 172 billion euros
Greece's total liability to private bondholders; 143 billion euros
Greece's total liability to official organizations like EFSF and IMF; 80 billion euros
total liability; 395 billion euros.
(courtesy Bloomberg)
Greeks May Hold $510 Billion Trump Card in Renegotiation
By John Glover - May 10, 2012 6:04 AM ET
Greece’s next government may hold a trump card worth more than $510 billion if it heeds voters’ demands to renegotiate its bailout with the European Union.
The nation owes about 400 billion euros ($517 billion) to private bondholders, public bodies such as the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank and other creditors, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About 252 billion euros of that’s due to official organizations that used their status to avoid the losses suffered by ordinary bondholders when Greece restructured its debt two months ago.
Greek voters are demanding their leaders renegotiate the terms of rescue packages that have imposed unprecedented austerity on the country since 2010. One potential prime minister, Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras, has pledged to tear up the EU-led bailout agreement. With Greece owing a sum roughly equal to Switzerland’s economy, the fallout for taxpayers could be calamitous if the country walks away.
“Greece has got some strong cards to persuade them to go easy on austerity,” said John Whittaker, an economist atLancaster University Management School in England. “Everyone fears a Greek departure from the euro because they’ll lose money and lose political capital.”
EURO INTEGRATION
European governments have poured money into Greece since its first rescue was agreed in April 2010 in a bid to keep the country in the euro and prove that monetary union, a symbol of European post-war integration, is irrevocable.
After receipt of a 7.5 billion-euro tranche in March, Greece now owes other countries more than 80 billion euros in bailout funds. The European Financial Stability Facility said 4.2 billion euros of rescue cash will be disbursed to the nation today.
The ECB also stands to lose much if Greece walks away from its obligations. First, the central bank bought about 50 billion euros of the government’s bonds to push down yields and help the nation retain access to the capital markets.
In addition, the ECB’s so-called Target2 system -- which tallies trade imbalances between the 17 national central banks using the single currency -- indicates that the Bank of Greece owes its counterparts 104 billion euros, according to Whittaker.
The Athens-based central bank has also issued 18 billion euros more banknotes than the size of its economy would indicate as Greeks tuck bills under their mattress or spirit them out of the country, Whittaker said. That would bring Greece’s total liability to the ECB to 172 billion euros.
‘MEANINGFUL HIT’
The ECB “would have to do a capital call on the rest of the members if there was a default,” said Darren Williams, chief European economist at AllianceBernstein Holding LP inLondon, which manages about $420 billion. “It would be a meaningful hit. So, yes, the Greeks do have some leverage.”
European politicians are openly discussing the possibility that Greece will leave the euro after voters flocked to anti- bailout parties in May 6 elections. Five of the seven parties in parliament reject the packages, with Tsipras condemning them as a “memorandum of barbarity.”
Political parties differ on exactly what terms of the rescue agreement should be renegotiated. New Democracy and Pasok, which have alternated power since 1974 and put in place this year’s bailout, are seeking to ease Greece’s current international-aid obligations.
On the other side of the debate, Tsipras’s Syriza party wants to renege on all Greece’s bailout commitments. As it stands, the composition of the next government is far from certain, meaning new elections may be necessary next month.
ELECTION RISK
“From a political perspective, there is a considerable risk that a left-leaning coalition is formed at the next election with a more explicit mandate to reject the EU/IMF program,” Credit Suisse Group AG economists including London- based Yiagos Alexopolous said in an e-mailed note. Their main scenario is that a national unity government will be formed that changes part of the bailout program but keeps its “broad thrust” on track, they wrote.
Greece also has 143 billion euros of bills and bonds outstanding, Bloomberg data show, taking total liabilities to 395 billion euros.
None of the numbers include money owed by private debtors including banks. Greek lenders, which are locked out of debt markets, in January borrowed 73.4 billion euros from the ECB to fund their operations, the Bank of Greece said May 3. Lenders typically use government bondsand bills as collateral when borrowing from central banks.
and....
As New Greek Bonds Tumble To All Time Lows, Is Greece About To Re-Default In 5 Days?
Back on May 5th, before the shocking outcome of the Greek elections was known, and before anyone had even heard of the May 15th €430 million bond maturity, we explicitly warnedthat in the case of continued anarchy in the country (predicting the inability to form a gogvernment) that, "it is unlikely that Greece can persist under anarchy, especially with another critical event coming due: a €430 million payment on an international law bond that matures on May 15, and whose owners have held out from the PSI process(remember that? apparently not all has been swept under the rug). In fact we now know that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund could very well be the entity that will demand payment and when it doesn't get it will promptly proceed to sue Greece." Indeed, as explained, the bond is held by non-PSI holders, and it has international-law covenants, in other words by parties non compliant to the PSI agreement and whose claims must be satisfied unless total chaos were to break out in the sovereign arena! Which means that for all the rhetoric about the successful Greek PSI with acceptance rates of nearly 97%, it is one tiny issue that can derail the whole process and send Greece into an out of control default.
Recall what only Zero Hedge warned back in January: "while the bulk of the bonds, or what is now becoming obvious is the junior class, can be impaired with impunity (pardon the pun),it is the UK-law, or the non-domestic indenture, bonds, which are the de facto fulcrum security. And since the notional outstanding here is tiny, it is quite easy to build up a blocking stake in the bonds and to obtain full control of the process" It appears that more have grasped this outcome, and now 5 days ahead of D-Day are once again dumping all exposure to the bond which some other hedge funds called a "No-Brainer" and the "Trade of the Year."
First: here is what Bloomberg followed up with a few days after our post:
through the biggest-ever sovereign bond restructuring, Greece once again faces the prospect of becoming the first developed nation to default on its debt.A decision to pay the holdout foreign-law bond investors may have to involve the so-called troika of the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF, which are supervising the country’s bailout.“If they decide to pay, Germany and the troika have to come up with the money,” said ITC’s Koutras. If Greece doesn’t pay, the foreign parties “will have to approve it,” he said.Amadeu Altafaj, a spokesman at the European Commission in Brussels, said in an e-mail that a decision on whether to pay holdouts “is a decision of Greece and only of Greece.” An ECB spokesman in Frankfurt declined to comment and an IMF spokeswoman in Washington didn’t respond to an e-mail.As Greece struggles to restructure its economy and stay in the euro region, politics may trump longer-term considerations such as continued access to capital markets. Along with a decision on the bonds, the new government will be under pressure to implement 3 billion euros of cuts immediately, followed by another 12 billion euros in 2013 to 2014, according to UBS AG analysts led by Stephane Deo in London.Greece achieved a high participation rate in the PSI debt exchange because almost all of its debt was governed by domestic law. Parliament legislated to insert so-called collective action clauses, or CACs, into terms of the notes retroactively, allowing a qualified majority of bondholders to agree on a loss that holdouts would also be legally obliged to accept.Bonds governed by foreign law aren’t susceptible to such treatment by the Greek Parliament, meaning that any decision to default may land a new government in a foreign court where it would have to defend its actions.“So far, everything has been done legally in Greece,” said Athanasios Vamvakidis, the head European currency strategist at Bank of America Corp. in London. “Failure to pay would be clearly illegal. They will lose in court, and it will cost Greece and the euro zone more in the end.”In other words, a verbatim, if rather dumbed down, transposition of everything we warned back in January.And second, here is why anytime someone tells you a trade is a "No Brainer", and is "the trade of the year", you should run...So yes: not only has nothing been fixed in Greece (sorr y all you PSI fans), but the country may now be forced to default (again) next Tuersday, when nobody expects it, only this time, there will be no government at all for damage control.
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