http://silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-gold-has-bottomed-at-1321-to-rise-into-june-5th-turn-date/#more-27310
Gold has bottomed at $1321.
I know not one person that has been willing to go on the record and post what I have posted. No individual has yet called the bottom for gold, and I have already gone on the record announcing the bottom only two days after gold hit $1321. The recent drop (just a re-test, in my view) was just four trading days and only $100 off—and folks seem to have forgotten that my Bottom call of April 18 has (so far) held beautifully! I sold my gold at $1900, as you are aware, and the $1321 bottom has not failed me.
I know not one person that has been willing to go on the record and post what I have posted. No individual has yet called the bottom for gold, and I have already gone on the record announcing the bottom only two days after gold hit $1321. The recent drop (just a re-test, in my view) was just four trading days and only $100 off—and folks seem to have forgotten that my Bottom call of April 18 has (so far) held beautifully! I sold my gold at $1900, as you are aware, and the $1321 bottom has not failed me.
For those of you who simply buy and hold Gold and Silver: sleep well, my friends, and know that your decision is a wise one into the year 2020, when they will top!
I have received numerous requests for an Update to the prior dates and charts posted on jsmineset.com. I have waited this week as I have been closely watching the gold market, and I wanted to be certain of the next date I post.
I have received numerous requests for an Update to the prior dates and charts posted on jsmineset.com. I have waited this week as I have been closely watching the gold market, and I wanted to be certain of the next date I post.
Submitted by Bo Polny
I have attached my most recent gold chart for your review. Please take the time to review the information within it:
Original Post April 19 stating that April 17 was THE bottom (Perfect and Holding to Date).
TURN DATES:
(I) May 3 (Perfect Turn Date)
(II) May 13 Expected Turn Date; May 17 Actual Turn (only four days after expected turn)
(III) June 5 – NEXT TURN. NOTE: This anticipated turn will likely coincide with a simultaneous Equity Market Correction (6/6/2013)
(IV) All dates forward are PRIVATE — For Subscribers only.
I know not one person that has been willing to go on the record and post what I have posted. No individual has yet called the bottom for gold, and I have already gone on the record announcing the bottom only two days after gold hit $1321. The recent drop (just a re-test, in my view) was just four trading days and only $100 off—and folks seem to have forgotten that my Bottom call of April 18 has (so far) held beautifully! I sold my gold at $1900, as you are aware, and the $1321 bottom has not failed me.
For those of you who simply buy and hold Gold and Silver: sleep well, my friends, and know that your decision is a wise one into the year 2020, when they will top!
I leave you with this…
By carefully studying history, we will never need to guess what our world will look like tomorrow—for tomorrow has already happened in our past! We must remember: our grandparents awoke one morning to worthless paper. History tells us where we are headed and how it ends!
Thank you,
CIGA Bo Polny
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/canadas-gold-and-silver-maple-leaf-sales-increase-in-a-big-way
¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD & SILVER
Gold had a couple of smallish rallies during the Far East trading session on their Thursday, with the high in the Hong Kong market coming shortly after 2:00 p.m. local time...and above the $1,400 price mark. From there the price drifted lower...and back below $1,400 spot by 8 a.m. in New York...about twenty minutes or so before the Comex open.
Then at 8:30 a.m. EDT, the price ran up to its high of the day, which came around 10:20 a.m. in New York. From that point, gold got sold down about five bucks before trading sideways for the remainder of the day.
Gold's low was a hair under $1,390 spot...and that came at 10:00 a.m. in Tokyo on their Thursday...and the high tick of the day in New York was $1,419.10 spot.
Gold closed at $1,413.70 spot...up $21.00 from Wednesday's close. Net volume was around 145,000 contracts, with most of that trading volume in the new front month, which is August, now that the month of May has officially gone off the board.
The price pattern in silver was more or less the same as gold's...but that correlation died at 12:30 p.m. in New York...when a thoughtful seller sold the silver price down about 30 cents going in the 1:30 p.m. Comex close. After that, it didn't do much.
The low in silver [just below $22.40 spot] came about 10:30 a.m. in Tokyo...and the high tick was at 10:20 a.m. EDT in New York...and Kitco recorded that as $23.21 spot.
Silver finished the Thursday trading session at $22.77...up 32 cents on the day...but 44 cents off its high. Gross volume was pretty decent...around 55,000 contracts.
The dollar index closed the Wednesday trading day at 83.63...and proceeded to drift gently lower until it hit its interim low of 83.28 at 11:00 a.m. BST in London. From there, it rallied back to unchanged by the time Comex trading began at 8:20 a.m. EDT in New York. But by 10:15 a.m. it had fallen down to 83.00...and traded almost ruler flat into the close...finishing the day at 83.01.
* * *
The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that there were no further deliveries posted for the May delivery month. The total deliveries in gold for May totaled 3,050 contracts...and in silver it as 3,416 contracts. The link to the May delivery data is here.
First Day Notice numbers for the Day 1 of the June delivery month were also posted on the CME's website late yesterday evening. They showed that 4,571 gold...and 20 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday within the Comex-approved depositories.
In gold, it was virtually all JPMorgan Chase as they were the short/issuer on 4,551 of those contracts. The biggest long/stoppers by far were HSBC USA with 2,143 contracts...and Barclays with 1,431 contracts. Surprisingly, Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia only stopped 144 contracts on Day 1...but the delivery month is still in its infancy.
There were a couple of dozen long/stoppers in gold besides the crooks mentioned above...and yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is definitely worth your time...and the link ishere.
By the way, the 20 silver contracts mostly involved "all the usual suspects."
For a change, there were no reported withdrawals [or additions] to either GLD or SLVyesterday...and the U.S. Mint didn't have a sales report, either.
Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, they reported receiving 430,085 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 50,054 troy ounces out the door. The link to that activity is here.
In gold, these depositories reported receiving 14,143 troy ounces...and shipped out a smallish 1,901 troy ounces. The link to that activity is here.
Here's a chart from the stlouisfed.org website. Casey Research's own Jeff Clark sent it our way...and his comment that "The U.S. monetary base is now officially off the chart…" pretty much sums it up.
* * *
selected news and views......
Big Banks Still Write the Rules: Former Inspector General of Bank Bailout
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul A. Volcker has announced he’s taking on the public’s eroding faith in government with a new foundation called the Volcker Alliance. He’s set to address an audience today in New York on the challenges facing regulatory reform, including how slowly Washington has moved on putting Dodd-Frank financial reform into effect.
But according to CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, barely a third of the rules have been written to actually implement the law.
"Much of Dodd-Frank is dying on the vine,” Chilton writes in an email exchange with The Daily Ticker. "Lobbying, litigation and lawmakers who have tried to defund and defang Dodd-Frank have all brought rule-writing to a crawl. Regulators themselves have become overly concerned about finalizing rules. Over-analysis paralysis, fears of litigation risks, and the lack of people-power have all contributed to the slowdown."
He describes the so-called Volcker Rule – a key aspect of Dodd-Frank meant to keep big taxpayer-backed banks from speculating – as “apparently dead in the water.”
This article was posted on the finance.yahoo.com Internet site on Thursday...and is very much worth reading. It's the second story in a row from yesterday's edition of the King Report.
David Stockman: "The Error Of Central Banking Has Become Universal"
In the old normal ("when we had an honest Fed," under Volcker), David Stockman explains to CNBC's Rick Santelli, "the market could judge what Congress and the White House was doing and decide where the risk/reward equation was and how to price the bond, the note, the bills," but in the new normal, "today, the market is entirely rigged."
Stockman is no fan of deficits and as he notes "is no fan of money-printing," pointing out that "it's not honest," for the Fed to fund these chronically growing deficits and "created an unsustainably dangerous financial system."
In this brief interview...5:12 minutes...Stockman (of The Great Deformation fame) sums it up perfectly to a just-as-concerned Santelli, when he notes, "the error of central banking has become universal." We're taxing the futures generations, he concludes, "they're [not] going to thank you for the massive disaster that was handed to them."
I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending me this Zero Hedge piece from yesterday afternoon.
No saviour in sight as world credit cycle rolls over
Any country that has failed to lock in a self-sustaining recovery by now must expect to pay the price for the failings of its policy establishment, and some risk a slide into outright deflation.
“We see building evidence of a cyclical downturn,” said Fredrik Nerbrand, HSBC’s global asset guru. “We find it highly troubling that the eurozone is still marred in a recession at the same time as our cyclical indicators appear to have peaked.”
The bank said there is a market “disconnect” between the world’s gloomy outlook and talk of tapering by the US Federal Reserve, the supposed moment when it starts to wind down its $85bn of monthly bond purchases.
It is surprising to me that HSBC’s leading indicator has taken so long to buckle, since commodities topped in September and the Dutch CPB index of world trade contracted over the February-March period. Rarely has there ever been such an equity boom on such quicksand.
This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering was posted on the telegraph.co.ukInternet site on Wednesday evening...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for sharing it with us.
Capital flight continues as savers flee Cyprus banks
Private bank deposits in Cypriot banks fell by 7.3 percent in April to €41.3 billion, on top of a 4 percent fall in March.
The continued flight of capital from Cyprus in April came in the aftermath of a clumsily agreed bailout in March which initially threatened to impose levies on almost all bank savings.
The first bailout package agreed by eurozone finance ministers in the Eurogroup would have imposed a 6.75 percent levy on all deposits worth between €20,000 and €100,000 - a clear breach of existing EU law which protects savings worth up to €100,000.
Although the first proposal was rejected by the Cypriot parliament, the rescue package eventually agreed upon, targeted wealthy investors in the island's two biggest banks, Bank of Cyprus and Laiki bank.
This news item was posted on the euobserver.com Internet site early yesterday morning...and it's another article courtesy of Roy Stephens. It's certainly worth reading.
A Perfect Storm: Why South Africa's Currency Has Been Getting Destroyed
The South African rand [ZAR] is getting absolutely brutalized lately.
The currency has fallen from levels around 9.00 against the U.S. dollar just three weeks ago to levels around 10.00 today.
"The key negative risk from headlines out of the mining sector wage negotiations is playing out in a text book fashion – alongside plummeting gold prices and rising [U.S. Treasury] rates – creating a perfect storm for ZAR," write Bank of America Merrill Lynch currency strategists.
The ongoing unrest in South Africa's mining sector – which relies heavily on exports of gold and other metals – is dragging down the country's economy, as worse-than-expected first quarter GDP growth figures revealed earlier this week.
All commodity-related currencies are pretty much in the same boat at the moment...Australia, New Zealand...and here in Canada as well. But the circumstances in South Africa are demonstrably worse. This is another story from Roy Stephens...and this one was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site during the New York lunch hour yesterday. It's worth skimming.
Japan's Falling Stock Market Triggers Fear of Collapse
The 13 percent plunge in Japanese stocks since May 22 has sparked concern that an all-out meltdown may ensue.
"What worries me a little bit is when some of those foreign buyers who have dominated the rally in recent weeks wake up in the U.S. or Europe and take a look at their Japan portfolio," one equity salesman told the Financial Times.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average is still up 32 percent for the year to date. That gain stems from the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus pushed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
"Japan's great stock rally officially entered correction territory on Thursday," the Times stated.
But what apparently began as a mere correction for stocks has snowballed into something far worse.
"What worries me a little bit is when some of those foreign buyers who have dominated the rally in recent weeks wake up in the U.S. or Europe and take a look at their Japan portfolio," one equity salesman told the Financial Times.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average is still up 32 percent for the year to date. That gain stems from the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus pushed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
"Japan's great stock rally officially entered correction territory on Thursday," the Times stated.
But what apparently began as a mere correction for stocks has snowballed into something far worse.
It's always possible that a buyer of last resort may be standing in the wings should things get too far out of control. This moneynews.com article was posted on their website very late yesterday morning EDT...and I thank Elliot Simon for another contribution to today's column.
Three King World News Blogs
The first interview is with Keith Barron...and it's headlined "Why This Summer May See Huge Upside For Gold and Silver". Next is Dr. Stephen Leeb. The title to this commentary is "West Desperate as Gold Heads East and Silver Set to Soar". And lastly is this blog by Michael Pento...and it's entitled "This Entire House of Cards Will Collapse".
Canada's Gold and Silver Maple Leaf Sales Increase in a Big Way
According to the Royal Canadian Mint’s newest quarterly report just released, Gold and Silver Maple Leaf sales increased substantially Q1, 2013. During the first quarter of 2013, Silver Maple Leaf sales were up 65% at 6.6 million ounces compared to 4 million ounces during the same period last year.
The Royal Canadian Mint had a total of 18.1 million Silver Maple Leaf sales in 2012. If the current sales trend continues, there will be an estimated 23 million Silver Maple Leaf sales for 2013 — 27% higher than 2012.
Even though first quarter 2013 Silver Maple leaf sales were impressive, the increase of Gold Maple leaf sales were even higher.
This must read commentary, along with three excellent charts, was posted on the srsroccoreport.com Internet site on Wednesday...and I thank reader "Rocky R" for bringing it to my attention...and now to yours.
Barrick's Pascua-Lama gold project frozen for at least 1-2 years: Chile regulator
Barrick's suspended Pascua-Lama gold project will likely be reactivated in one to two years at the earliest, given the infrastructure that needs to be built to avoid water pollution, Chile's environmental regulator told Reuters on Thursday.
Last Friday, the new regulator ordered the $8.5 billion project be halted and fined the company $16 million, citing serious environmental violations.
A Chilean court in April had already temporarily halted the unpopular project, which straddles the border of Chile and Argentina, to weigh claims by indigenous communities that Barrick has damaged pristine glaciers and harmed water supplies.
The water management canals and drainage systems that were only partially implemented cannot be built "from one day to the next," environmental regulator Juan Carlos Monckeberg said in an interview.
This story, filed from Santiago, was posted on the Reuters website early yesterday morning EDT...and I thank Roy Stephens for his final contribution to today's column.
Industry executives said the government may limit the amount of gold imported by state-run agencies such as MMTCLtd and State Trading Corp. of India Ltd.
Until mid-May, bullion dealers could place gold import orders with a designated bank by paying a margin upfront and the rest on delivery, but a new rule stipulates they pay the entire amount before importing.
Analysts added that rebound in domestic demand would exert further pressure on policymakers as they struggle to contain a runaway current account deficit (CAD), partly stoked by large gold imports, even after hiking the customs duty on gold to 6% from 4%.
This very short must read story, filed from New Delhi, was posted on thebullionstreet.com Internet site on Thursday afternoon India Standard Time...and it's Ulrike Marx's final contribution to today's column.
China’s Gold Demand to Slow From April Surge
Gold demand in China, the world’s largest consumer after India, may slow in the second half of this year after surging in April, said Zhang Bingnan, secretary-general of the China Gold Association.
“The kind of frenzied buying in late April and early May won’t be repeated,” Zhang said. Some of the jewelry demand earmarked for festivals or weddings later this year may have been brought forward to April and May after prices fell, he said.
Demand reached a record 294.3 metric tons in the three months to March, the gold council estimates. China’s purchases in 2013 should be better than last year, he said. The country consumed 776.1 tons in 2012, little changed from the previous year, according to the gold council.
China’s consumption reached 320.54 tons in the first quarter, with purchases of gold bars surging 49 percent to 120.39 tons and jewelry gaining 16 percent to 178.59 tons, according to the gold association.
Today's last story from Bloomberg also falls into the must read category. It was filed from Beijing and posted on the bloomberg.com Internet site late yesterday evening MDT...and I thank reader Ken Hurt for sharing it with us.
¤ THE WRAP
Certainly one of the chief guarantees of freedom under any government, no matter how popular and respected, is the right of the citizens to keep and bear arms. [...] the right of the citizens to bear arms is just one guarantee against arbitrary government and one more safeguard against a tyranny which now appears remote in America, but which historically has proved to be always possible. -- Hubert H. Humphrey, 1960
Although I was more than happy to see the pop in the gold price yesterday, it's too soon to get out the party favours just yet.
As Ted Butler pointed out yesterday, both gold and silver are flirting with their respective 20-day moving averages once again...but neither metal closed above them yesterday. Ted says that some of the technical funds that are short these metals will begin to cover once that particular moving average is penetrated with some authority...and that point we'll find out what JPMorgan et al intend on doing.
Here are the 6-month charts with the 20 and 50-day moving averages superimposed, so you can see what he is referring to.
(Click on image to enlarge)
(Click on image to enlarge)
The major moving averages...the 50 and 200-day...are still miles away to the upside, so this budding rally in both metals are just the first baby steps as the metals crawl off the bottom.
But, having said that, the price action in the shares over the last two days has been a wonder to behold...as the HUI is up ten percent in total over that period. One can only hope/pray that this is the start of something of significance, but it's way too soon to...as I said above...break out the party favours.
Later today we get the all-important Commitment of Traders Report for positions held at the close of Comex trading on Tuesday. As I've said several times during the past week, I'm expecting great things, but reserve the right to be wrong! But whatever the numbers show, I'll have all the gory details in tomorrow's column.
It was pretty dead in Far East and early London trading on their Friday. Volumes were about average in both metals for that time of day...and the dollar index was up 16 basis points. And as I hit the 'send' button on today's column at 5:10 a.m. EDT, gold is up a dollar or so...and silver is down about a dime.
And as I mentioned in the previous paragraph, today is Friday, so I'm psychologically prepared for any price scenario that develops during the New York trading session today...and so should you.
That's all I have. Enjoy your weekend...or what's left of it if you live west of the International Date Line...and I'll see you here tomorrow.
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