Key dates in Europe for the next 4 weeks.... redacted ZH schedule for May - July to note May / June high points !

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/complete-european-calendar-events-may-july

Complete European Calendar Of Events: May - July

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/27/2012 15:38 -0400

• Central Banks
 
• Deutsche Bank
 
• European Central Bank
 
• European Union
 
• Germany
 
• Greece
 
• Italy
• Mexico
 
• None
 
• Portugal
 
• Shadow Banking
• Transaction Tax

There are still 3 weeks until the next so very critical Greek elections (which if we are correct, will have an outcome comparable to the first, and not result in the formation of a new government absent Diebold opening a Santorini office), meaning the power vacuum at the very top in Europe will persist, and while the market demandssome clarity about something, anything,nothing is likely to be implemented by a Germany which is (rightfully, as unlike the US, Europe does not have the benefit of $16 trillion in inflation buffering shadow banking) concerned by runaway inflation if and when the global central banks announce the next latest and greatest global bailout, which this time will likely by in the $3-5 trillion ballpark. However, none of this will happen before the market plummets as Citi explained last weekend, and Europe has no choice but to act. Luckily, as the events calendar below from Deutsche Bank shows through the end of July there are more than enough events which can go horribly wrong, which ironically, is precisely what the market bulls need to happen for the central-planning regime to once be given the carte blanche to do what it usually does, and believe it can outsmart simple laws of Thermodynamics, regression to the mean, and all those other things central bankers believe they can simply overrule.

May

• 31 May: Irish referendum on Euro zone ‘Fiscal Compact’. A recent poll published in the Sunday Business Post showed a 6 point increase in support  for ‘Yes ’ after the first week of formal campaigning by the government. The yes vote was up 6pp to 53% versus a month ago, the no vote down 4pp to 31% and don’t know down 2pp to 16%. Excluding the ‘don't knows’, Yes leads No 63% to 37%. An alternative poll published in the Irish Independent on 17 May similarly showed a 60% Yes vote when the ‘don’t know’ contingent is excluded. However, in that poll the ‘don’t knows?’ represented 35% of the total. The average ‘don?’t know’ proportion in the opinions polls on the Fiscal Compact since the start of the year is 24%. The question is whether the ‘don’t knows’ swing in favor of the ‘No’ camp. In the last 5 opinion polls in the month ahead of the Lisbon Treaty rejection in 2008, the ‘don’t knows’ averaged 31%. Excluding the ‘don’t knows’, ‘Yes’ had a lead over ‘No’ of 56% to 42%. In the event, the Lisbon Treaty was rejected 47% to 53%. (see “Eurostress” in this issue of Focus Europe)

June

• 6-June: European Commission proposed Directive on crisis management/bank resolution. The EC is due to present proposals for a bank crisis resolution scheme, potentially including plans for creditor write- downs, before the G20 leaders
• 
  
  • 10 June: French legislative election (first round). Elections to entirely renew the deputies in the National Assembly (lower house of parliament). A risk is that the socialist party alone fails to secure an absolute majority and has to depend on the support of the radical left, which could push to try to transform what we hold
    for pure campaign rhetoric in actual legislation. However, it would be
    wrong to simply replicate Melanchon’s score in the first round of the
    presidential election into the number of deputies the radical left would
    secure, as the “personal factor” was important in Melanchon’s strong
    performance and as the “two rounds?” majority system of the
    parliamentary election should favor the socialists.
  
  
  • • • • 13 June: New timeline for ratifying ESM and Fiscal Compact in Germany. German government and opposition will decide on the final timeline for ratification of ESM and Fiscal Compact. In return for their support to approve the Fiscal Treaty (two-third majority in the Bundestag required), the opposition (SPD and Greens) want to see a broad growth initiative for the euro area. Meanwhile, the opposition has indicated that the elements of a growth strategy discussed at the informal EU dinner on Wednesday will satisfy their demands in this regard (in their statement the SPD joined Chancellor Merkel in rejecting Eurobonds at this point in time). The crucial issue remains the opposition's call for concrete steps to introduce a financial transaction tax which is supported by the ruling coalition in principle but cannot be realised at short notice. Moreover, the second chamber - representing the German states - has to approve the legislative pieces with two-third majority also. There, the states face budgetary problems in implementing the budget rules of the Fiscal Compact until 2014 (stricter than the German debt brake so far) and demand financial support from the federal level to comply with them - which is likely to be granted in some form. Government and opposition will convene again on June 13 to decide on the final timing for the legislative process. The ESM should be ratified in time for the July 1st deadline to allow its entering into force but the ratification of the Fiscal Treaty might well slip into July.
  
  
  
  
  • • 17 June: Greek elections. A repeat of the national elections in Greece was called by the President after the three largest parties from the initial election on 6 May (New Democracy, SYRIZA and PASOK) were each in turn unsuccessful in forming a coalition and talks between all party leaders failed to produce a unity government. An emergency government led by the senior judge Panagotis Pikrammenos has been tasked with taking Greece through to the new election. Some polls showed a sharp rise in support for the anti-bailout SYRIZA, while others showed a stronger backing for New Democracy (see “A Containment Strategy” in this issue of Focus Europe for further details).
    • 
      
    • 18-19 June: G20 Leaders Summit, in Los Cabos, Mexico. Gathering of the leaders of the world’s twenty biggest economies. European Commission?’s plan to resolve failed European banks among the issued to be discussed (see the entry above).
  • •