Thursday, July 28, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views....July 28 , 2016....Quick Hits - 1. Market Moving News : US Data - US 7 Year Bond Sale A Hit , June US Trade Data Weaker Than Expected And Prior Report Revised Worse , US Final GDP Forecast Also Reflects Weakening Trend ; EU Data - Fitch Comments On EZ Fiscal Credibility Or Lack Thereof After Spain/ Portugal Situations ( No Fines Despite Breaching Budgetary Deficit Rules ) , German CPI Harmonized , UK Ten Year Hits Latest All Time Low In Yield. 2. Italy In Focus - Italy's Bond Spreads Widen Ahead Of Friday's ECB Bank Stress Tests , Italy Wages Continue To Lag , Items On Dicey Italian Banks Ahead Of The ECB Stress Tests. 3. Spanish Political Updates - Rajoy Continues To Baffle With Bull Turds - Rajoy Accepts King's Invite To Form Gov't , Unsure If He Will Pursue Confidence Vote. 4.Turkey Gulenist Witch Hunt Items De Jour. 5. German / French Leader Responses To Both Terror & Refugee Challenges. 6.Odds & Ends.



Market Moving News....















US sells $28bn 7y Notes: -B/C 2.51 (prev 2.56) -HY 1.34% (prev 1.497%) -WI 1.341% -Dir 7.7% (prev 9.1%) -Indir 65.5$ (prev 65.6%)









JUN ADVANCE GOODS TRADE BALANCE: -$63.3B V -$61.0BE - Prior Goods Trade Balance revised worse from -$60.6B to -$61.1B







Final US GDP forecast from Atlanta Fed model: following 1.1% in Q1 and 1.4% in Q4, 1.8% in Q2 would be pathetic










Fitch: Cancelled Fines Show Limit of Fiscal Credibility.






German CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) Jul P: 0.40% (est 0.30%; prev 0.10%) -(YoY) Jul P: 0.40% (est 0.30%; prev 0.20%)






GILT 10Y YIELD FALLS BELOW 70BPS TO ALL-TIME LOW





Italy......







Out of 8 Banks wooed to participate in proposed bailout - Morgan Stanley , UniCredit and Intesa SanPaolo walk away.









’s Bond Spread Widens Before Results of Banks’ Stress Tests.






Painful adaption to Euro reality: wages +0.7% in Jun, 6th mth of gains <1% YOY, unprecedented. (Chart via AP)





households on the hook as bank depositors own almost half of vulnerable junior bonds.





's banks may be biggest losers in plan to save them as >1/3 of Italy banks' bonds owned by other Italian banks






Good Morning from where output gap so high & inflation so low that fair interest rate should actually -1.55%.





Turkey....





“It seems that the routes have re-opened, so the chasing game has started again,” as per Coast Guard sources.









More demands from Turkey. Gulenist witch hunt continues..







Gulen gives his observation on current situation in turkey , with historical parallels drawn.







Not surprised MHP dissident group chief detained as a Gulenist. Erdogan seems to look out for the embattled MHP Head







Turkey claims Gulen could flee US. Any evidence for this ? Any evidence of Gulen's alleged coup involvement ?








Local Turkish prosecutor includes CIA, FBI allegations in Gülen indictment








Turkish police to receive heavy weapons. One reason: Regime knows it will mistrust military for foreseeable future.










France & German Leadership Terror Responses / Reactions , Refugee Related Concerns...





True , Erdogan keeps repeating that the EU hasn't up to its promises and threatens to unleash refugees on Europe.







New National Guard to be created to protest citizens - lack of confidence swipe at Police and Interior Minister ?









MERKEL ON REFUGEE CRISIS: STILL CONVINCED 'WE CAN DO IT'









German Army to be made part of fight against jihadist terror at home in Germany.









Not a surprise this raid occurred on same day Merkel addressed internal threats to Germany from jihadists.









Guess we shall see if that actually comes to pass...









MERKEL: 'WE NEED A BETTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEM' FOR RADICALIZED ASYLUM-SEEKERS





Spain.....















Journalists having to begin questions for Rajoy with "Excuse me, let me get this straight…".























LATEST: Rajoy accepts but says not currently enough support to form govt.







| Ciudadanos' proposes PP/PSOE/C's grand coalition without Rajoy as PM or minority Rajoy govt via PSOE/C's abstentions





Odds & Ends...





Greek GDP has contracted 26% Greek unemployment = +25% Greek riots & govt changeovers Hard to defend this outcome.







West has only itself to blame for mainstreaming AlQaeda in . People living in Mid East are the ones who will pay the price for this.





Pics: army captures Bani Zaid where terrorist rebels made hell canon missiles & shelled civilians for 4 years







Pic: army drops flyers on east Aleppo, detailing 4 humanitarian corridors for civilians wishing to leave










 


U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT SAYS IT SEES NO REASON SO FAR TO CHANGE ITS VIEW OF NUSRA FRONT. But they "amicably split" on youtube










The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is second Dem group hacked:










WHITE HOUSE SAYS FBI HAS NOT REVEALED ANY INFORMATION ABOUT WHO HAS PERPETRATED THE HACK OF DNC EMAILS











presidential council (appointed by UN envoy) in Ras Lanuf to follow up on UN envoy's deal with Ibrahim Jadran










 


1,095 migrants rescued off Libya this morning.



















AGOCO oil company able to pay only 1 month of salaries to its employees شركات-تجتمع-بطبرق-لمناقشة-سبل-الاستثم/








Jathran says oil exports will start today. NOC Chairman says no way that will happy. LNA says will bomb any tanker without permission











: Sarraj under threat from Al Jadhran oil agreement



















A wider political settlement is a prerequisite to increased Libyan oil production? ... -