Saturday, July 30, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views .... July 29- 30 , 2016 .... Quick Hits 1. EBA Stress Tests Results Released Friday - Tables , Data And Items To Consider - Italian, Irish, Spanish Banks Perform Worst 2. Monte dei Paschi - Worst Performing In Stress Tests , Allegedly Bailed Out In Private Rescue , To Dump 27.7 BN In NPL at 33% of Value. 3. Libya In Focus - Oil Deal Between Jadran & GNA Announced , Questions Remain As To Whether It Will Amount To Anything. 4. Turkey Purge - Daily Details Of Sultan Erdogan Purge. 5. Odds & Ends.

EBA Stress Tests

( Much More At Twitter T.L )

Deutsche Bank slams ECB for NIRP. ECB responds by passing DB in a test that does not test for NIRP

Deutsche Bank may need to pass a few more "stress tests"

Stress test summary: Italian banks still have €360 billion in bad debt

The EBA Stress Tests are here --> EBA publishes 2016 EU-wide stress test results

As group, Germany's banks look weak in adverse scenrios according to the EBA stress tests

From EBA: Impact on CET1 capital ratio from 2015 to 2018 in the adverse scenario by bank in alphabetical order

has failed in stress test as website carrying the full results had collapsed initially.

Monet dei Paschi ....

RBC: After restructuring, Monte Paschi’s CET1 would remain unch while NPL ratio will drop to 18% from 34%, in line w/regulatory requirements


Monte Paschi officially says ECB has approved rescue plan

Much larger amount of NPLs sold by Monte dei Paschi , than initially thought would be sold.


Some notable events in this round up !

PC accused of treason , further protests called....

Deal to open Libya's Ras Lanuf and Es Sider oil ports


Peace talks Cairo have reportedly failed to bridge gap between UN-backed govt. Tripoli and parliament in Tobruk.

US wants transparency over Libya oil ports deal.

UN-backed govt re-opens key oil ports. Terms of deal not disclosed, may include special payment(AP)

Uncertain times Libya oil sector. Head state oil company threatens to quit if deal to open ports includes special payment.

Note reopening of oil ports does not mean more exports. Sirte Basin fields inactive, held by opponents of oil ports deal.


So-second coup rumor unfounded.Crowds mobilized (by social media / text messages?)-timed for arrival of US J.C.O.S.

Just a "safety inspection." Nothing to see here , move along folks.

This allegedly is something new , not from July 15th...checking into this but Fwiw

Could be real , could be paranoia....

File under rumor for now...second coup rumor involving Incirlik AFB....

US defense officials are visiting tomorrow, might announce its complete closure for US fighter jets.

These heavy dump trucks are being made ready to enter Air Base (are they trying to close it?)

Dani Rodrik analyzes US direct support vs tacit support for Gulen , opining difficult to rule out "tacit" support.

Turkey arrests 17 reporters as Erdogan tells critics to 'mind your business'

update: Erdogan is not pardoning people outside Turkey who insult him. The wanker.

"In Germany, FETÖ often acts under the guise of cultural or educational institutions"

ANALYSIS: Turkey and Russia use aftermath of to rebuild relations by

Pentagon says US general's comments on Turkey's failed coup attempt 'misunderstood'


15,846 detained , 8,133 arrested , 1,041schools /dormitories shutdown , 1, 229 Associations/ Foundations shutdown, 81, 704 Public Employees purged , 35 hospitals closed , 150 media outlets closed - all since July 15th.

Powerful series of tweets says all you need to know about the state of Turkey's democracy

‘Big risk’ of - migrant deal collapsing

BREAKING: Turkey’s military now clear of Gulen-linked elements: PM Binali Yildirim -

LIVE — President Erdoğan: No representatives of the EU, the EP or other western institutions have come to Turkey to offer condolences

EXCLUSIVE: UAE collaborated with coup plotters in Turkey weeks before it was launched

Turkey coup bid: Erdogan accuses US general Joseph Votel of "taking the side of plotters"

LATEST — US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dunford is scheduled to come to Turkey on July 31, minister says

Tourist revenue down 36% in Turkey. Not sure who reported that figure but they'll be in prison by sunset

BREAKING: 50,000 passports have been canceled in Turkey since the failed coup: Interior Minister - Reuters

Turkey: Gulenists did the coup. US: Turkey arrested our interlocutors. Q: Is Turkey lying or is the US mostly working with Gulenists?

Odds & Ends...

China's Industrial Bank to raise up to $3.9 billion to boost capital via @httpstwittercomasiatimesonline

Credit Bubble Bulletin: Weekly Commentary: Bubble Battles Doug Noland - Weekly Essay & Global Overview.

Brazil's Lula landed the Olympics for Rio in 2009. On eve of Games, he will now stand trial on obstruction charges

: Military Situation in pocket


Dozens of civilians arrive at Syrian Army checkpoints in central and south Aleppo

Eurozone growth slumps to 0.3% in Q2. So much for the claim made by Sadiq Khan and others during Referendum that EZ growing faster than UK.

it is the first time since the EU-Turkey migrant deal that the number of refugees has exceeded 7,000 in N Aegean