Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( May 18 , 2016 ) Overview For Wednesday ( 1. FOMC Minutes Spark Large Reactions In Bond , Precious Metals and FX ; Non Opec Crude Supply Barely Nudges Downward Over Last 12 Months ; Divergence Between German Bund & US Treasuries Continues. 2. Brexit Daily Tidings. 3. Greece - Creditor Talk Updates & Related Matters , Refugee Related Matters . 4. Libya - Around the Political Horn. 5. Odds & Ends. )


Markets & Market Moving News....




US 2y yields jump to highest since March as FOMC Minutes point to a Fed that wants to pull the trigger in June.






and get hammered by hawkish FOMC Apr minutes.







Big levels have broken post FOMC minutes, acc to Citi. What to watch for.







Fed hike odds for June move from 12% yesterday to 32% today. September moves from 47% to 62%.






Non-OPEC Crude Oil supply down 1.7% over the past year.








Unbelievable spread between US and German bond yields. The great divergence...





Brexit......




Project Fear not working with business leaders ...






This poll seems a bit of an outlier , but we shall see.






Deferred until after Spain's re-run election and UK referendum. ..







Decision two days before vote ....









Greece.......








Can kick past German Elections in 2017...








Debt for Greece will remain a distant mirage , if this flies...









EU's Dombrovskis: One option to ensure IMF stays in Greek program is to buy back earlier IMF debt & move it to favorable EU conditions (BBG)









 

563 asylum seekers relocated in past two months , only 1500 total relocated since "scheme" announced. Epic fail.









Takeaway - Are IMF's relations w/ other creditors becoming so strained as to imperil the entire bailout process ?












Libya......









Congress appears to be awake and not neglecting its duty to carefully examine lifting this arms embargo re : Libya.







More mischief...






Report - 18 Misratan forces dead in battles today with IS west of Sirte.






no sign of cooperation between LNA & GNA in fight against Daesh. Attempts to achieve unity continue in Cairo today.







more trouble from Agilah Saleh. PM Serraj in Cairo to meet with him, but Agilah refused to meet despite agreeing to meet previously.





General Haftar unloads , GNA and their sponsors try to ignore this for now.






Odds & Ends ......






Olive branch extended to Conservatives...









Venezuela police fire tear gas, block anti-Maduro protest in Caracas

 







Cash crunch ?








Did Bill clear his remarks with Hillary before blasting Poland & Hungary?






Political pressure mounting on not just SPD , but CDU/CSU.








Classified documents reveal theEuropean plan to send cameras, scanners & servers for refugee registration to Sudan