Thursday, May 19, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( May 19 , 2016 ) Overview For Thursday (1. Markets & Market Moving News/ Data - ECB's Coeure Dissects Easing Via 4 Yr TLTRO Vs NIRP , FOMC Minutes Still Causing Higher Rates Anxiety , S&P Index Has Mild 4% Pullback Since April 20th - Start Of A Trend Or Natural Pullback Pondering , EZ Unemployment Rate Chart 2007 - 2016 . 2.Poland Defies EU On "Rule Of Law" Reforms Before EU Deadline . 3. Poroshenko Once Again Under Scrutiny Regarding Offshore Secretions Of Cash . 4. France Sees Protests Continue , A320 Between Paris And Cairo Goes Missing today . 5. Greece Updates Regarding Debt Relief Positions Between The Creditors , Refugee / Migrations Matters. 6. Austria's Presidential Election Looms This Weekend , TTIP Good As Dead Due To Incoming Austrian President , Austria Comes Up With Solution To Rescue Austria Region From Bankruptcy . 7. EU-Turkey Updates & Political Developments Within Turkey. 8. Odds & Ends - Around MENA Horn. )



Markets & Market Moving News....









’s Coeure: Credit easing via 4yr TLTRO's more important than negative rate.








Good analysis from Mish. Nothing in the data to date , suggests a June interest rate hike is warranted. Fwiw.








Fed angst pushes Dollar higher. Gains in Greenback haven been bad news for stocks this year.








S&P 500: 4% pullback from the April 20 high. How this compares to the 19 prior corrections since Mar '09.










Fathom: Hawkish FOMC Minutes leads us to believe that Fed likely to raise rate by July, & probably again in December







French Unemployment Rate stabilized at 10.2% in 1Q BUT in 2013 the UR for Eurozone was 2 full ppts >France. (via AP)







Europe In Focus .....





Poland.......






Poland defies EU..







Ukraine.......





accused of transferring cash to despite a ban of National Bank








may unlock bailout funds for Ukraine in June






France......







UPDATE: EgyptAir Flight MS804 was destroyed instantly, flight data shows:








Has ISIS already followed through on terror threat to France or just the opening Salvo in next round of attacks?









Huge demonstration against , burning tires blocking access to the city, Le Havre - France.
 









EgytptAir A320 missing , 66 passengers on board = Flight from Paris to Cairo...





Greece.....





Some tidbits from the IMF today...








IMF: we welcome the beginning of the debt discussions







IMF: we have not yet finalized our new DSA, what we presented in EWG is our preliminary debt analysis







IMF:achieving 3,5 is very ambitious target, it is unrealistic to sustain it for many years, leads to too much austerity, we don't want that







Split between IMF and EZ on debt relief ( in this instance timing and certainty of same ) continues.








It remains unclear whether Greek leaders will have any say or how Plan B would reduce migrant flows to Europe.







Senior finance ministry officials discuss ways to make Greece’s 321 billion euros of obligations sustainable.








Austria......








Note Tweets from Alberto Nardelli....








I'm hearing in Strasbourg that TTIP deal is as good as dead: both Austria's Presidential hopefuls anti & can veto, if Hollande doesn't first










EU-Turkey......






End of June deadline seems set to be missed. Both EU & Turkey believe ball is on other side's portion of the field.






Key numbers on Bill to strip immunity - 367 (to become law), 330 (Bill goes to referendum) , 348 - present support.







Odds & Ends .......





Coalition warplanes drop Leaflets over Raqqa asking Civilians to leave the city








Lebanon nixes UN Refugee Plan...








REPORT: YPG blocks trucks transporting fuel into Idlib province, creating shortage.









NATO allies divided over bigger role in stabilizing