Monday, May 16, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( May 16 , 2016 ) Overview Fro Monday ( 1. Markets & Data - S&P 500 Q 1 EPS Update , Global Equities - YTD Returns , Sovereign CDS Spreads - Highest & Lowest Spreads , Commodities Updates - Movers & Shakers , Bond Market Oddity Regarding Global Yield. 2. Turkey & EU Deal - State Of Play , Sultan Erdogan Setting Up His Power Moves In Turkey. 3. Greece Coming Closer To Terms With Its Creditors To Close The First Review For Bailout Three - Related Items Of Interest . 4. Brexit Items De Jour. 5. Libya Political State Of Play - International And Internal Developments. 6. Odds & Ends. )



Markets......




S&P 500: with 92% of companies reported, Q1 EPS down 1% over the past yr, the 6th consecutive YoY decline.








Equities, YTD Total Return Brazil: +20% Russia: +9% US: +2% UK: +.3% India: -1% Germany: -7% Japan: -13% China: -19%







Highest and lowest sovereign CDS spreads...







Crude Oil: from down 29% YTD on Feb 11 to up 29% today. 83% above its 52-week low.







US accounts for 89% of all positive yielding debt with a maturity < 1 year








Hmmmmm........






Turkey & EU Deal - State of Play....







June 2nd-German parliament intends to pass a resolution re: the 1915 genocide carried out by Turkey on Armenians.







"Obedience to the Leader is a must." Bow down , those that will , to the Sultan.







Not a shocker..








Erdogan's maneuvering to seize even more power & control in Turkey.









While Turkey has considerable leverage over EU on the refugee crisis , monthly expenses are spiking for Turkey.







386 refugees returned to Turkey. 8,000 new arrivals to Greece.






Greece .....






with 'objective' property value up to €140k.








Agreement on contingency mechanism clinched between gov't and institutions (via )









's 2015 prim surplus finally reached 0.63% of GDP, acc to ELSTAT Apr 21 data.









Greece set to live up to its end of the bargain ...







Including-mechanism for applying automatic cuts, the framework for the new privatization agency and sale of NPLs.











EZ favors staggered relief only starting in 2018 , the IMF is pushing for larger relief which kicks in immediately.







Brexit.........







Which poll to believe? UK ONLINE POLL ON EU SHOWS 43% REMAIN, 47% LEAVE: ICM UK PHONE POLL ON EU SHOWS 47% REMAIN, 39% LEAVE: ICM









There is a reason why Cameron isn't deemed believable. On the record statements divergent w/present positions.








Carney's "absurd" scaremongering is targeted by







Boris's statement - nothing wrong with the statement in full context....








Libya......






CBL Tunis meeting details emerge: Dinar devaluation, unified board and Governors sidelined -







Joint statement issued after today's key meeting in Vienna (signed by 21 countries + UN, EU, AL & AU)







: The assistance we ask from the international community is only logistical support and training.








MoU between NOC Tripoli HQ & rival incl agreement to resume Hariga shipments & ensure no more power disruption/pipeline sabotage








Handshakes in Vienna yday as head of 's NOC (r) signs MoU w/ eastern challenger aimed at uniting oil sector







UN-backed government asks ministers it has appointed to take office.







Odds & Ends





The officials executed by FSA were YPG Officials in charge of negotiations between YPG and Rebels in Azaz city. Both were non-combatants





There goes peace hopes… Small FSA group Jaish al-Shamal video shows killing of female PR official “Shirin” & 1st assistant Ziyad Jafar







- Jaish al-Shamal has claimed the killing as retaliation for this parade of rebel corpses in on 28 April:






Turkish police issue ISIL attack warning for May 19






SAUDI ARABIA HELD $116.8 BLN OF U.S. TREASURIES AS OF MARCH. that's it?






NYT reported in mid-April that Saudi Arabia has $750BN in Treasuries. Just a little off





Poland probably will move ahead with loan conversions-as politically , the Gov't will want to fulfill this promise.








ICBC announced to cease all personal wealth management accounts commencing June 01 !! To cope with NPL investigation !!






Good round the horn for Monday morning !