Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( February 3, 2016 ) Overview ( 1. Goldman Changes Its Forecast On Fed Policy For 2016 / 2017. 2. Puerto Rico In Focus . 3. Great Charts From Charles Bilello - Crude / Fed Forecast / Total Returns Since 2009 - Selected Big Banks ) Oil Related News For Wednesday ( Fundamentals / Weekly Chatter On Production Cuts ) Europe In focus ( 1. Spain - Political Updates , IBEX Falls 4 % 2. UK- EU Negotiation Updates , Reactions From European Capitals 3. Merkel Still Falling In Popularity In Germany . 4. Refugee / Migration / Border Security Updates . 5. Ukraine's Failure To Crack Down On Reforms - Economy Minister Quits. 6. NIRP Updates. 7. Greece Related News. 8. Odds & Ends.9. Data Splash - Major Economic Data Releases For EZ Area , Germany , Spain , France , Italy , UK , Russia and BDI )


Overview......






Goldman: "We are revising our Fed call, and now expect the FOMC to keep policy rates unchanged at the March 15-16 meeting"









Goldman: "We expect the next rate increase in June, and see a total of three rate increases this year"









Huge: Puerto Rico has not provided final 2014 financial docs to according to federal court testimony










Crude Seasonality, last 25 years... Tends to bottom in January (on avg).
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BOOM: The Market is now pricing in NO rate hikes in '16 & only 1 hike in 2017. World War ¥€$


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Total Returns since Nov 2009...

: -8% : -9% : -16% : -24% : -76% Long-Term US Treasuries: +61%

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Oil..........









"Iran is not opposed to a meeting but there would be to a consensus about what to do," an Iranian official tells the Wall Street Journal.










Iran's position of not joining an immediate OPEC cut as reported before remains the same










. to Cut 6,000 Jobs as Industry Downturn Worsens via


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Chart: US gasoline inventories at record high -
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Chart: US crude oil inventories hit new highs (the only time it was higher was in the late 1920s?) -
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Of course, this is all theoretical unless agrees. The 6 are likely: , , , , plus another










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Europe.........







Catalan separatists have registered a petition in the regional parliament to begin drawing up key breakaway laws.
















Merkel's popularity falls below 50% for the first time ever. [ Infratest/Dimap poll]: 46% -8 points
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Good summary by of what Cameron obtained so far: Question is if this will be sufficient for UK citizens








Ukraine's economy minister quits over reform obstruction

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Check latest polling numbers in Germany !









Anthony Sanders: European 2Y Sovereign Yields Go MORE Negative, Deutsche Bank CDS Explodes








*SCHAEUBLE: `DIFFICULT' FOR GREECE TO RECOVER W/O DEVALUATION








FinMin Schäuble says Europe needs a common army.







*IBEX FALLS 4 PCT, HITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MID-2013










Everything just going swimmingly , I see.








Yes, that's the yield on the German 2-year... -0.5%

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France reiterates its long-standing position. Now , back to Cameron discussing his wonderful deal.









DETAILS: German mayor says schoolgirls shouldn't walk nr refugee center to avoid harassment

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The police chiefs of Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia and Macedonia agreed not to let though travelling without documents













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Keep your eyes on the ever-growing chorus to ban cash.










Cameron confirms EU referendum won't be held within 6 weeks of Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish elections though date not fixed yet










SNP's calls on Cameron not to call EU referendum in June due to clash with Scottish, Welsh & Northern Irish campaigns




















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Data Splash.....  Key Europe Items - much more at Timeline (Twitter)









| Almost a 2 handle! Baltic Dry Bulk Index -2.3% at 303 points ...record low obviously

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Final Markit Composite : 53.6 in Jan'16 (Flash=53.5, Dec'15=54.3)


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Markit Services at 50.3 in Jan'16 (49.8 in Dec'15).










Final Markit Composite Output Index at 50.2 in Jan'16 (50.1 in Dec'15).
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Final Services Business Activity Index at 55.0 in Jan'16, down from 56.0 in Dec'15 (3-month low).










Composite Output Index at 54.5 in Jan'16, down from 55.5 in Dec'15 (3-month low).
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Markit/ADACI Services at 53.6 in Jan'16, down from Dec'15 69- month high of 55.3



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Markit Services at 54.6 in Jan'16, the weakest increase since Dec'14.

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Markit/CIPS Services at 55.6 in Jan'16, little-changed from 55.5 in Dec'15

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Markit composite at 48.4 in Jan’16, up from 47.8 in Dec’15.

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