Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Economic News , Data , & Views ( February 2 , 2016 ) US News For Tuesday (1. IOWA Caucus Surprises 2. Exxon Halts Stock Buybacks . 3. US Treasury Bonds On Fire . 4.WTI Crashes Below 30 USD Again. 5. ISM Collapses. 6. Odds & Ends ) Europe In Focus ( 1. Greece Items For The day - Economic , Political , Protests , Refugee Situation . 2. Spanish Political Updates - PSOE Gets Mandate From King To Try To Form Gov't. 3. EU- UK Negotiations Updates. 4. Around the European Horn - Finland , Austria , Germany , Italy , ECB , France , Denmark , Sweden , Portugal , Switzerland In Focus . ) MENA Updates ( 1. Syria Talks & Battlefield Updates 2. IS In Focus . 3. Libya Items Of Note. 4. Refugee Situation - Lebanon & Jordan )



Overview ......











Developed economies, past yr Cut rates: Switz/Sweden/ECB/Denmark/Japan/Canada/Norway/Australia Hiked rates: US
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Fed not expected to hike rates again until Dec '16. Expectations for first hike in...
UK: Nov '17
Eurozone: Jul '19
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US - Election Items , Economic Data  ...









Iowa revealed the three themes that define the 2016 campaign












. on : “The fact that coin flips are in the rules are raising eyebrows.”


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BREAKING - Final result: Clinton wins Iowa Democratic caucus over Sanders, 49.8%-49.6%


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US Yield Curve continues to flatten, at new expansion lows today: 111 bps (10-Yr yield minus 2-Yr yield)
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10Y Treasury Yield Crashes To 10-Month Lows, Down 40bps Since Fed Rate-Hike



















WTI Crude Crashes Back Below $30






















Europe...














to get on its feet w/ 50% income tax + 30%:in social contributions - too sad Greeks get on their knees + die












43 jihadists caught , one can only wonder & guess how many got through ?











Greece faces stepped-up EU demands to stem tide of refugees


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Drivers in for more woes as farmers resume highway blockade


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farmers are blocking highways and border crossings to protest 15% pension cut plans
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Migrant arrivals in Greece unabated, despite risks via




















major news from spain; king asks socialist leader to form govt. socialists came 2nd posted worst election results in party's history










- After 2nd round of consultations, Rajoy says he still lacks majority to form gov't. King Felipe to announce his decision shortly.















To be, or not to be together, that is the question... My proposal for a new settlement for











Early reactions from various Gov'ts...










Poland's EU minister: “The U.K.’s first three demands are acceptable, The fourth one is the problem. via










Majority of Tory MPs waiting on results of renegotiation before committing themselves to either Remain or Leave











EU Commission spox: Tusk proposal paves way to start sherpa process. Sherpas [Govt officials] will meet on Friday.











Boris Johnson says Cameron needs to do 'much much more' on Europe, says Britain should have power on emergency migration brake










will have to spend 50 billion euros for refugees in 2016 and 2017.









MERSCH: DON’T ASSUME ECB WILL BEEF UP STIMULUS IN MARCH:WSJ




















FINNISH TWO-YEAR NOTE YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW MINUS 0.427%










It's no surprise the French are losing faith in Hollande's war on terrorism:
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. slams ‘perverse’ EU rule on spending and budget deficit
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further extends border controls
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Special Stockholm police squad set to stop far-right vigilante violence in Swedish capital

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European Commission set to ask Portugal to tweak its 2016 budget











Swiss bank Julius Baer warns it may start passing negative rates onto individual depositors in Euros












MENA .......








Iran, Saudi Arabia must compromise, resolve Mideast tensions: UN Khorasan











Syrian army threatens to encircle Aleppo









Turkmen commander: We may retreat to Idlib if Bayırbucak falls










So , neither US , France or UK plans to send combat troops to Libya. What about Advisors ?












43 jihadists caught , one can only wonder & guess how many got through ?











Italy's Trevi to sign Mosul dam contract in coming days











IS Moves Money to Avoid Coalition Air Hits












Libya has collapsed in the grip of civil war and much of it is in the control of Islamist extremists linked to IS













The rd connects / z cut off due 2 the regime advancing & support. Towns r empty,huge displaced movement again













This is rapidly falling apart..














opposition HNC demands “immediate, serious & clear steps” to ensure UNSC Res 2254 implemented prior to talks


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My new article + map update: The Battle for – the “Mother of all Battles”















: Syrian opposition says it will not attend afternoon meeting with UN envoy. UN has confirmed meeting is cancelled - via
















Under heavy bombardment for 2-days straight, FSA rebels now demanding opposition HNC insist on halt, or withdraw from talks.













PT: , & regime coordinating major E->W (from Nubl/Zahra) & W->E (from Retyan/Bashkoy) push to cut off N. rebels.














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Syria conflict: Jordanians 'at boiling point' over Via
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Senior opposition negotiator Alloush says not optimistic on talks
















Syria refugee women in Lebanon face abuse, exploitation: Amnesty















U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warns of ' efforts to take control of 's oil
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John Kerry, Kobler, Italy FM Gentiloni & Qatari FM Al Thani discuss support for 's unity govt in Rome meeting
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crude output only 360,000 bpd as war wrecks fields, pipes, terminals in Forum


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