Monday, February 29, 2016

Economic News, Data & Views ( February 29 , 2016 ) Overview ( 1. Bond Watch. 2. Commodities In Focus. 3. Global Equities After Two Months. 4. FX Watch - February's Best - Worst Performers.) Asia Items From 3/1 & 2/29 ( 1.China PMI DATA Plunges , More Stimulus Demanded As Economist Cry for More Bourbon To Cure Alcoholism 2. Yuan Game Of The Day - Currency Strengthens Today , Offsets 50 BPS RRR Cut From Yesterday . 3. Aussie Housing Bubble Bursts - Building Approvals Crash Most In 4 Years. ) Europe In Focus ( 1. Refugee/ Border Security Items. 2. Greece News Of the Day. 3. Brexit Items. 4. Spanish Politics. ) Odds & Ends For Monday ( 1. Global )


US High Yield Spreads have tightened over 100 bps in the past few weeks after hitting their widest levels since '11.

Biggest rally in CCC high yield bonds in almost a year. Good sign, want to see this continue in March.

Germany's 2y yields hit fresh life-time low of -0.56% as pressure on rises after Eurozone turned into deflation

9y yields turn negative. Hits fresh life-time low at -0.012%

2y yields of 11 EZ countries now negative: Everything you need to know about negative rates.

Bloomberg Commodity Index: 8th straight monthly decline, lowest close since Feb '99, down since inception in '91.

Lean Hogs a slightly better hedge than Gold YTD, leading all commodities. Interesting to see Copper almost flat.

Global Equity Returns through 2 months. Interesting: 7 countries positive, all Emerging Markets...

's Yen is the biggest winner in Feb w/ a gain of >7%.


Actually March 1st & February 29th........

Euribor futures continues rallying to new record high, that's tough for EUR ...

China PMIs Plunge, Economists Demand Stimulus To "Prevent Economy Falling Off A Cliff"

FEB CAIXIN PMI 48.0 (prv 48.4, est 48.2)

50 bps RRR cut effective today, PBoC suspends open-market operation for first time b/c "ample liquidity leading to weak reverse repo demand"

NBS PMI FEB 49.0 (prv 49.4, est 49.3)

Despite $1 Trillion In Liquidity, China Manufacturing & Services PMIs Plunge To Dec 2008 Lows

China NBS PMI expects 49.3 (prv 49.4), Caixin PMI expects 48.2 (prv 48.4) tomorrow. NBS released ahead of A-Share opened. So PBoC knows ...

Pboc lowers RRR 50bps!


( Much more at Twitter TL ! )

Refugee Items ....

Refugee deal with Turkey EU’s only option, no plan B, says Germany’s Merkel | Front Page

' has resources, lacks political will to resolve ‘critical’ migrant crisis' – UNHCR spox

We shall see if the EU meets the expectations of Turkey.

From Before.......

Border restrictions aren't going to deter people fearful of losing their lives -whether they are Afghans or Syrians.

For a brief moment, the border between and was open today. Afterwards tear gas, chaos, wounded...

Very ugly optics for the French.

Dog chasing it's own tail Summitry.

⚡️ "Calais Jungle dismantled" by



Significant gap between European institutions & vs at tonight's Working Group, acc to .

Lawyers extend strike to Friday, accountants rally

Ominous divisions between Greece's Creditors augor more draconian measures potentially being imposed on Greece.

Greek farmers end road blockades over pension reform ahead of bailout talks

Any time actions are taken to reduce transparency , as well as access by the free press - not a good sign.

Brexit .....

Conservative Opposition to Cameron's "Project Fact" and their rejection to Remain arguments , becoming heated.

True ! When he was negotiating with the EU , he did say he could campaign for BREXIT , if negotiations failed.

Cameron says again that he won't resign as PM if there's a vote.

The PM has proved the Leavers' case. @danhannmep on fire.... via

Spanish Politics......

United Left leader Garzón confirms its two MPs will definitely be voting 'no' to the PSOE-Ciudadanos deal.

- Socialists made one more try to get Podemos on board ahead of this week's confidence votes. No success.

Odds & Ends......

Can the ceasefire hold until March 7th ?

ISIS appears very paranoid in Mosul. Mass arrests/executions -including for failing to fight, a recent trend there.


SG expects to cut depo rate by 20bps in Mar to -0.5% & to extend QE til Dec2017. Sees BS to grow to 39% of GDP

Syrian Army within 7 km of large Turkish border-city: map

NEW MAP: Military situation in northwestern . HD version:

Donald Trump hits 49 percent support in new national poll ahead of Super Tuesday.

US releases Iraq dam collapse evacuation advice

Erdoğan’s remarks on journalists’ release sparks parliamentary row