Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Economic news , Data & Views ( March 1 , 2016 ) Overview ( 1. High Yields Rally Continues. 2. EM FX Continues Slight Bounce . 3. Debt Watch - YTD Showing Improvement In Riskiest Sectors . 4. Fed Hike Expectations - Sept 2016 Coming Into View Rather Than June 2018. 5. Global Commodities - More Signs Of Improvement. 6. Global Equities- More Green Shoots. ) Europe In Focus ( 1. Refugee Crisis / Border Security . 2. Spanish Politics - PSOE Seems Unlikely To Be Able To Move Forward With Ciudadanos Gov't. 3. Greece In Focus - News Of The Day. ) Odss & Ends ( Global Items To Consider. )

Asia as news comes online....... and updated as required !


US Said To Impose 266% Tariff On Imports Of Steel From China -- BBG

Capital flight delivers a verdict on China. Will a normal slowdown follow, or a bust?

Less talked about but more impt (it's now the biggest part of the economy), China Services PMI fell to 7-year low

Share of world GDP (PPP). 1991 Japan: 9% Germany: 6.2% Italy: 4.2% China: 4.3% 2015 Japan: 4.3% Germany: 3.3% Italy: 1.9% China: 17%


At 7.7%, this is the biggest rally in CCC High Yield Bonds since they peaked in June '14.

EM Currency Index: longest stretch w/o a new low since the bounce last March-May. Pos sign, want to see continue...

YTD returns EM Bonds (local currency): +2.98% EM Bonds (USD): +2.96% US High Yield: +1.45% US Leveraged Loans: +.04%

Expectations for next Fed hike: Feb 11 (S&P @ 1810): Jun '18 Mar 1 (S&P @ 1978): Sep '16

Commodities: good to see Copper turn pos YTD with everyone extremely negative on China. Want to see this continue.

Global Equities: up to 10 countries with positive YTD returns, top 9 are all Emerging Markets. S&P: -2.8% YTD.


Refugee situation / Border Security.....

Greece & Italy are going to appreciate this proposal.

Tusk to push Turkey for 'more intense' work on migrants

Merkel: migrants must be registered in Greece. Doen't say Austria&Balkans should reverse restrictions.

Debacle. ..

Greece refusing to play ball , not participating in becoming an island version , of a well of souls.

EU to call for emergency humanitarian aid to Greece

police dismantle migrant camp at , many there

Chllr : Situation at the Greek border shows, that decisions of all 28 (EU members) are necessary. Unilateral measures are of no help.

Big fire in donations depot of near the Traiskirchen migrant camp. Cause not yet known.

Map: The Balkan RouteZoom
Map: The Balkan Route


Podemos number two Errejón says Sánchez speech "was even worse than we were expecting".

SÁNCHEZ VOTE: Speech ends. Pablo Iglesias calls Sánchez's remarks "disappointing".


Drop in PMI and economic sentiment

Medium and high incomes face more tax

Demo against NATO’s Aegean patrols

ELA dropped in January, Bank of Greece data show

Europe on cusp of self-induced humanitarian crisis, UNHCR says

Odds & Ends ......

API full numbers: Inventory build +9.9MM, Exp. 3.6MM Cushing +1.8MM

"Lula" targeted in corruption probe....

Wise words from the Constitution Court's Top Judge.

executes 8 Dutch jihadists for 'desertion & mutiny' in Iraq

Now that is a layoff...


March 9th is date for next round of Syria Talks.

Not just Syria facing millions of citizens fleeing fighting. Iraq has millions of displaced citizens.

UNSC meeting tomorrow is key. UN wants a yes vote by then.

Unclear if recognised parliament (Tobruk) to vote today on UN unity government plan. Meeting yesterday cancelled.