Friday, October 2, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( October 2 , 2015 ) - HUGE MISSES - Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment Data From The US ( NFP - 142 K vs an expected 201K for September , Aug revised from 173k down to 136 K ! ! ) ...... Europe Updates ( VW news of the day , EZ data - Aug PMI released and deflation is the word , Country Specific data - Spain , Russia ) ...... Asia & E.M News & Data In Focus ( Brazil , Hong Kong , Japan , China , South Korea )


Evening wrap....




US....









ECONOMIST: The Fed is never going to raise rates via








The Carolinas will get as much as 15 inches of rain from hurricane Joaquin








At 95.5 BN , Total Return Fund approximately one third of its peak for Assets in the Fund.







Energy Coal SpA Files Chapter 15 Petition in Delaware.










DOUBLELINE CAPITAL'S JEFFREY GUNDLACH SAYS 'THERE'S GOING TO BE ANOTHER WAVE DOWN IN RISK ASSETS AND IT'S HAPPENING GLOBALLY'









| *FISHER FED ABILITY TO STIMULATE W/ MONETARY POLICY `PLAYED OUT' *FISHER SAYS FED CHAIR YELLEN `HAS BACKED HERSELF INTO A CORNER'








Europe.....






DB revises ECB call. Expects 6mth extension of QE to be announced in Dec as ECB has failed to prop up inflation expec



































German Chancellor Merkel: Leaders of Russia and Ukraine moved closed to each other in talks









doom deepens. Credit protection costs rise, implied 5y default probability jumps to almost 23%.













Morning Tweets....





US Employment Report - Way OFF The Mark !







Participation Rate Crashes: Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar By 579,000 To Record 94.6 Million







Headline unemployment not a complete picture. Low NFP makes labour market slack even more evident


















This chart shows whole US jobs story. Euro jumps as US NFP disappoints. Payrolls rise by 142k less than exp (200k).








10Y < 2.00%






September nonfarm payrolls: 142K, Exp. 201K









Non-farm badrolls.
So, will the start to monitor labour market developments now?





Non-farm payrolls in the US rise 142k in Sep (TR poll:+202k). Aug revised down to +136k (previously +173k). Jobless rate unchanged at 5.1%





Europe.....






Cheating doesn’t pay. Volkswagen has lost €33bn in market cap since scandal over falsifying emissions becoming public












| TRADING AT LOWEST LEVEL IN 4 YEARS







| AUG PPI M/M: -0.6% V -0.6%E; Y/Y: -2.4% V -1.6%E









Pressure an rises as PPI undershoots. Declined further to -2.6% YoY in Aug. vs -2.4% exp.











*SWISS SUSPEND NEW CAR REGISTRATIONS FOR SOME VW GROUP MODELS







| *SWISS DRIVER FILES CRIMINAL COMPLAINT AGAINST VOLKSWAGEN *GENEVA PROSECUTOR: COMPLAINT BEING ASSESSED, NO FURTHER COMMENT








| SEPT NET UNEMPLOYMENT M/M: +26K V +17.9KE









Feeding the glut: 's Oil Output Reaches Post-Soviet Record in September.










Asia and Emerging Markets....









| AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -1.2% V -1.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: -9.0% V -8.9%









| Aug Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -5.4% v -2.8% prior








| *PORT HEDLAND IRON ORE SEP EXPORTS TO CHINA 33.8M TONS (chart:Port Hedland Ore Loaded for Export)












| SEPT MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 35.1% V 33.3% PRIOR; MONETARY BASE END OF PERIOD: ¥338.4T v ¥327.4T













| SEPT CPI M/M: -0.2% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.6% V 0.8%E









Markets little changed ahead of US jobs numbers. Nikkei closed up 0.02% at 17725.13 while Yen unchg as well.















1998 Redux: Emerging Markets suffer record outflow.






























China Slowdown Spurs Record Sales of Notes Tied to Nation's Debt