Thursday, April 30, 2015

Economic News , Data and Views ( April 30 , 2015 ) - Greece in the forefront as the Creditor Talks shift toward May , state of play on financial condition / banks / economy / political front , Moody's downgrades Greece to Caa2 ....... Very Early Europe Updates and very early data ( Spain GDP - economy grows stronger than expected for Q1 , SNB in news after massive Q1 losses , German Bunds tommy hammered of late due to rising negative sentiment ) ...... Pre- US Market Open items ( Fed Hold on Wednesday , Apple in news for Apple Watch defect causing shortage , not demand ) ..... Japan items focus of Asia news cycle ( BOJ refrains from additional easing , yen strengthen against dollar as a result ) ... RBNZ holds off touching rates , more dovish than expected NZD weakens as a result


Tweets.....


( Updates as news flows in at the blog tweet feed .. )



Greece...




FT cites Greek Finance Ministry Official stating there has been a "sharp decline" in tax revenues in April










GR off red lines? GR ready to sell a majority stake in its two biggest ports /concede on VAT rates /some pension ref




Supreme Court to declare austerity cuts in pensions as unconstitutional, reports say. Ruling could completely derail fiscal position





Looks like some fruit and vegetables exports to Russia from Greece and Hungary could start as soon as early May













Deposit outflows from Greek banks slow in March, credit shrinks via




Cabinet meeting 1400 GMT over proposed austerity measures and reforms toward an agreement with the Institutions. |





Can default AND keep the euro? via





close to minimum agreement deal with creditors, says deputy PM







Min Interior Voutsis talks about "important bilateral deals" that might happen with Russia. Venezuela. Then Mars. Andromeda.










Econ Min Stathakis told he expects an agreement with institutions incl financing before May 11 .







A positive outcome on negotiations w/ institutions is expected by May 3, acc 2 gov't sources (via ).






Greek 5yr default probability rises again as Moody's cuts 's rating deeper into junk.










Moody's: 's Caa2 rating is historically associated w/ one in four probability of default over a 2yr horizon.









Another downgrade. Moody's Caa2 from Caa1







Moody's estimates that 's priv sector deposits fallen by €32bn (18% of GDP) since Dec2014 to €132bn at end-Apr











gov't considers selling a 51% stake in Piraeus and Thessaloniki Port Authorities - RTRS (via )








GPO poll for Mega TV Remain in "at all costs": 75.6% No to referendum on deal with lenders: 61.9% No to snap elections: 72.2%





State of negotiations on Greece (via )








Broader Europe and US  ....





Youth unemployment data startles

Looks like some fruit and vegetables exports to Russia from Greece and Hungary could start as soon as early May



jumps to 2mth high of 1.1247 in tandem w/ Bund yields. 10yr yields spike to 0.36%








Italy sees unemployment rise for March !





In Italian - Plan B involving replacing Tsipras being discused within EZ ?








's economy grows stronger than expected: GDP rises 0.9% in Q1 (0.7% in Q4 2014, consensus: 0.8%) ~









Spanish GDP. Still below 2008 levels.







Spanish GDP stronger than expected in Q1 via























There Was Another Huge Move in German Bunds Today via








WOW.... Q1 loss CHF 30bln; Q1 FX positions loss CHF 29.3bln; Q1 exchange rate losses CHF 41.1bln




German Bunds get hammered after big investors say to get out.








FOMC downplayed importance of recent weak data & failing to provide change in their stance, even tho most think June hike is off the table






Gross says June rate increase is off as BlackRock sees september.





















































Asia ....








JPY strengthened after the BoJ refrained from additional easing





RBNZ left rates on hold while providing a more dovish than expected stance, weakening NZD





BREAKING: retains plan for 80trl annual rise in monetary base, as expected; Kiuchi dissents again