http://yourakashikreader.com/?page_id=382
( if a new moon is the optimal time for an attack , it comes next week on October 15th... )
Moon Calendar
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-04/naval-update-t-minus-one-week-until-arabian-sea-destination-reached
Naval Update: T-Minus One Week Until Arabian Sea Destination Reached
The news surrounding the Middle East, particularly Iran and Syria, may come and go in waves, but for the most part it is loud political grandstanding, jawboning and largely noise. Or rather, it will be noise until these two catalytic events occur: the third US Aircraft carrier (CVN-74 Stennis) and the second big deck amphibious warfare ship (LHA-5 Peleliu), both dispatched as of several weeks ago with a destination the 5th US Fleet headquartered in Bahrain, reach their target - the Arabian Sea, located by the Straits of Hormuz and right next to Iran. As the following naval update map from Stratfor shows, both are now within a week of reaching their destination: conveniently so with at least two weeks to go until the presidential election. Needless to say, once on location, the naval and airborne support for any offensive operation, especially those launched during new moon cycles, will be simply suffocating.
http://www.infowars.com/nato-signals-readiness-to-attack-syria/
NATO Signals Readiness to Attack Syria
Kurt Nimmo
Infowars.com
October 9, 2012
Infowars.com
October 9, 2012
NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said on Tuesday the military alliance is ready to attack Syria following a week of theatrical performances on the Syrian border designed to portray Turkey’s neighbor as an ominous threat.
CIA and MI6 backed Free Syria Army terrorist in the western border town of Zabadani in January, 2012.
“Obviously Turkey can rely on NATO solidarity,” said Rasmussen. “We have all necessary plans in place to protect and defend Turkey if necessary.”
Despite evidence that the mortar used in the attack on Turkey was of NATO manufacture and Syria hasformally apologized for the attack it did not commit, Turkey has continued to pummel its northern neighbor with artillery barrages over the last week.
“Ankara may want an escalation in the stand-off with Syria, but there will be no NATO war without US backing,” John Glaser writes today. “Although the US has been meddling in Syria’s conflict – by sending aid to the rebel fighters and fueling the violence – many in the US still don’t see an outbreak of war in Syria as workable.”
In addition to CIA and MI6 backing, British and French Special Forces have been actively training members of the FSA from locations inside Turkey.In August, Moscow’s envoy to NATODmitry Rogozin warned that NATO is working toward intervention in Syria.
“NATO is planning a military campaign against Syria to help overthrow the regime of President Bashar al-Assad with a long-reaching goal of preparing a beachhead for an attack on Iran,” he said.
Following a statement by the Chairman of the UN Security Council critical of Syria on August 3, Rogozin said “[This statement] means that the planning [of the military campaign] is well underway. It could be a logical conclusion of those military and propaganda operations, which have been carried out by certain Western countries against North Africa.”
“The noose around Iran is tightening. Military planning against Iran is underway. And we are certainly concerned about an escalation of a large-scale war in this huge region,” Rogozin added.
“US, NATO and Israeli military planners have outlined the contours of a ‘humanitarian’ military campaign, in which Turkey (the second largest military force inside NATO) would play a central role,”Michel Chossudovsky wrote in February.
“We are at dangerous crossroads. Were a US-NATO military operation to be launched against Syria, the broader Middle East Central Asian region extending from North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border with China would be engulfed in the turmoil of an extended regional war.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-09/gold-iran-soars-23-one-week-all-currency-transaction-tracking-disappears
Gold In Iran Soars By 23% In One Week As All Currency Transaction Tracking Disappears
Just over a week ago we we were the first to shed light on the reality of hyperinflation on the ground in Iran - and subtley suggested the whole thing could be watched in real-time. Soon after, a mysterious cabal of 16 currency manipulators was arrested and the Rial jumped dramatically higher (according to official sources) - as if by magic there was no problem at all. This all sounded a little too good to be true (just like unemployment rates in slightly more controlled economies). Sure enough, by the power of social media, we now know it was too good to be true.
As open-market foreign exchange rates - not just Rial-to-Dollar - have disappeared from the major currency exchange sites, as trade has reportedly slowed to near suspension after the Central Bank 'imposed' a rate of 28,500 Rials to the USD this weekend.
Critically, though, via EAWorldView, while the 'real' rate for the Irainian Real is effectively blacked out, gold prices continue to soar. 'Old gold coin' is now selling for 16 million Rials, up 23% from the pre-suspension 13 million Rial levels - even as the
Central Bank tries to suppress reality (especially to the rest of the world's gaze) as hyperinflation continues - though less transparently.
and discount falling polls as a motivator for Obama.......
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-07/romney-trounced-obama-in-presidential-debate-newt-gingrich-says
Republican nominee Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by 4 percentage points among likely voters in a Pew Research Center poll that shows the Republican challenger getting a bounce from last week’s debate.
The survey taken Oct. 4-7, following the Oct. 3 presidential debate in Denver, gave the former Massachusetts governor 49 percent among likely voters and Obama 45 percent. Among registered voters, 66 percent said Romney won the debate and 20 percent said Obama did.
A Pew poll of likely voters taken Sept. 12-16 gave Obama a 51 percent to 43 percent lead, the widest margin of any nominee since Bill Clinton in 1996.
****
http://www.debka.com/article/22422/US-sources-US-Israel-plan-October-Surprise-Others-Israel-can-do-it-alone
US sources: US, Israel plan October Surprise. Others: Israel can do it alone
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis October 9, 2012, 1:53 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israeli KC-135 refueling craft
Four facts deserve attention with regard to a potential attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The first is that the Iranian-Israeli war is already at hand. Iran launched it by sending an unmanned drone into Israeli air space Saturday, Oct. 6, breaking new ground in belligerence with a cyber attack.
Israel countered by stationing Patriot missile interceptor batteries in Haifa and other parts of its northern region.
That Tehran initiated hostilities with a cyber attack on Israel cannot be wiped from the record any more than its score: two points, Iran; zero, Israel, whose air defenses proved no match against a large, slow-moving and cumbersome aerial vehicle loaded with electronic equipment.As many experts have pointed out, Patriots are not designed for intercepting aircraft, only missiles. Their deployment therefore aims at defending the country from potential Iranian or Hizballah missile strikes from Lebanon or Syria - depending partly on the state of the Syrian war.
Israel countered by stationing Patriot missile interceptor batteries in Haifa and other parts of its northern region.
That Tehran initiated hostilities with a cyber attack on Israel cannot be wiped from the record any more than its score: two points, Iran; zero, Israel, whose air defenses proved no match against a large, slow-moving and cumbersome aerial vehicle loaded with electronic equipment.As many experts have pointed out, Patriots are not designed for intercepting aircraft, only missiles. Their deployment therefore aims at defending the country from potential Iranian or Hizballah missile strikes from Lebanon or Syria - depending partly on the state of the Syrian war.
And indeed, Hamas and Jihad Islami spokesmen, when they assumed shared responsibility for the 55 Palestinian missiles and mortars fired against Israel Monday morning, Oct. 8, said quite openly that the rules of Gaza warfare had changed: IDF attacks on terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip, however limited in scope, would draw forth reprisals not only from that Palestinian-ruled territory but from Lebanon, they said.
DEBKAfile: As of mid-September, under newly-signed military pacts, the strings of the two leading Palestinian terrorist militias in the Gaza Strip are being manipulated from Beirut by Iran and Hizballah. It is they who now set the rules and dictate the scope of Palestinian anti-Israel operations from Gaza.
The drone’s incursion was a separate Iranian initiative.
The other three points pertinent to the Iranian-Israel confrontation are:-
DEBKAfile: As of mid-September, under newly-signed military pacts, the strings of the two leading Palestinian terrorist militias in the Gaza Strip are being manipulated from Beirut by Iran and Hizballah. It is they who now set the rules and dictate the scope of Palestinian anti-Israel operations from Gaza.
The drone’s incursion was a separate Iranian initiative.
The other three points pertinent to the Iranian-Israel confrontation are:-
1. US intelligence recently warned President Barack Obama that Iran’s nuclear breakthrough point is much closer than formerly estimated, i.e. approximately 7 weeks off. In late November, therefore, Iran will enough 20 percent plus enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb. American and Israeli intelligence see eye to eye on this estimate.
It flies, however, in the face of the assessments circulated in Israel by anti-attack factions who are now claiming that Iran has slowed the progress of its military nuclear program in order to divert much of its enriched uranium to civilian projects.
This claim is not only incorrect, but it is a valuable contribution to Tehran’s propaganda effort to prove that its program is entirely innocent and peaceful.
2. A US Congressional Research paper published internally on Sept. 28 asserts that Israel is capable of going it alone without the United States against Iran’s nuclear sites, including the Fordo underground enrichment facility.
This fact has been suppressed by the anti-attack camp, whose spokesmen have insisted that Israel lacks this capacity.
The experts commissioned by congress to determine the truth of the matter concluded: “… an attack on Esfahan, Natanz, and Arak might require deploying only 20% of Israel’s top-line fighters purchased from the United States. “…this yields an Israeli strike involving at least 100 aircraft. Most sources indicate that Israel has a total of “around 350 fighter jets.”
The US congressional research team adds that, although Israel received enough 7 KC-130 refueling planes from the US to cover the round trip to Iran and back, the Israeli Air Force has also secretly developed two more refueling options about which the US knows very little.
It flies, however, in the face of the assessments circulated in Israel by anti-attack factions who are now claiming that Iran has slowed the progress of its military nuclear program in order to divert much of its enriched uranium to civilian projects.
This claim is not only incorrect, but it is a valuable contribution to Tehran’s propaganda effort to prove that its program is entirely innocent and peaceful.
2. A US Congressional Research paper published internally on Sept. 28 asserts that Israel is capable of going it alone without the United States against Iran’s nuclear sites, including the Fordo underground enrichment facility.
This fact has been suppressed by the anti-attack camp, whose spokesmen have insisted that Israel lacks this capacity.
The experts commissioned by congress to determine the truth of the matter concluded: “… an attack on Esfahan, Natanz, and Arak might require deploying only 20% of Israel’s top-line fighters purchased from the United States. “…this yields an Israeli strike involving at least 100 aircraft. Most sources indicate that Israel has a total of “around 350 fighter jets.”
The US congressional research team adds that, although Israel received enough 7 KC-130 refueling planes from the US to cover the round trip to Iran and back, the Israeli Air Force has also secretly developed two more refueling options about which the US knows very little.
“Over the past two years, Israel Aerospace Industries-IAI bought up all the Boeing 707s coming on the international market and had them converted in IAI factories into KC-135 refueling planes,” says the report.
After the Congressional Research Center published these findings, David Rothkopf, who is close to US Democratic Party leaders, tested the ground with a report Monday, Oct. 8, in Foreign Policy, which said that the United States and Israel are considering the possibility of a joint "surgical strike" against Iran's nuclear facilities as an “October surprise.”
After the Congressional Research Center published these findings, David Rothkopf, who is close to US Democratic Party leaders, tested the ground with a report Monday, Oct. 8, in Foreign Policy, which said that the United States and Israel are considering the possibility of a joint "surgical strike" against Iran's nuclear facilities as an “October surprise.”
He quoted a source said to be close to the discussions, which claimed that “a small-scale attack is currently viewed as the most likely military option by air, using bombers and supported by drones,” which Israel would not be able to carry out on its own.
What Rothkopf was saying is that President Obama has no more than 20 days to decide if and when to conduct this US-Israel attack on Iran.
His clock, say our sources, is ticking at the same speed as that of former Mossad chief Efraim Halevi who on August 1 predicted an attack on Iran within twelve weeks; and Tzahi Hanegbi, the former Knesset defense and foreign affairs committee chair and close confidant of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who said in mid-September that the next 50 days would be critical for Israel’s destiny.
His clock, say our sources, is ticking at the same speed as that of former Mossad chief Efraim Halevi who on August 1 predicted an attack on Iran within twelve weeks; and Tzahi Hanegbi, the former Knesset defense and foreign affairs committee chair and close confidant of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who said in mid-September that the next 50 days would be critical for Israel’s destiny.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/08/wanted_a_truly_credible_military_threat_to_iran
Wanted: A Truly Credible Military Threat to Iran
The Israelis and the Americans are zeroing in on a strike option that has a real chance of deterring the mullahs -- and defusing Mitt Romney's attacks.
BY DAVID ROTHKOPF | OCTOBER 8, 2012
In Mitt Romney's "Hope Is Not a Strategy" speech at the Virginia Military Institute, the Republican challenger zeroed in on the current unrest in the Middle East as a sign that President Barack Obama's foreign policy is not working. The most biting implication in the speech is the assertion that al Qaeda is resurgent -- in other words that killing Osama bin Laden, emotionally satisfying as it was, was not the game-changer in the region that the Obama administration has implied it was.
http://www.wnd.com/2012/10/irans-secret-nuclear-bomb-plant-revealed/
( fwiw... note how this information comes out as we move further into October and drop dead dates for Spain and then Greece )
Iranian scientists are nearing completion of a nuclear warhead, having already successfully tested an implosion system and neutron detonator at a secret site while enriching uranium to weapons grade, according to a former Iranian intelligence officer.
The information comes from Hamidreza Zakeri, formerly with the Islamic regime’s Ministry of Intelligence and National Security, or MOIS.
Zakeri previously testified at the federal district court in Manhattan in the Havlish v. bin Laden civil lawsuit, where he provided proof that Iran had materially aided and supported al-Qaida before and after 9/11.
Zakeri, who has in the past provided credible information on another site to Western intelligence agencies, said that after the revelation of the existence of the Iranian atomic research facility in Lavizan-Shian, the team of scientists moved to a secret location in 2003.
The site was then demolished and the earth scraped clean by the Revolutionary Guards. Iranian authorities had denied an IAEA request to visit the site before the cleanup.
Lavizan-Shian is headed by the father of Iran’s nuclear bomb program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi.
A 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate concluded that Iran had halted work on its nuclear bomb project in 2003 around the same time that the Iranian atomic research facility in Lavizan-Shian became known. The information was based on intelligence that funding for Fakhrizadeh’s work on the project had been frozen.
WND reported last week that a source affiliated with high Iranian officials confirmed Iran could announce a halt to the nation’s nuclear enrichment before next month’s U.S. election in a move to save Barack Obama’s presidency.
The source, who remains anonymous for security reasons, said a three-person delegation of the Obama administration, led by a woman, engaged in secret negotiations with a representative of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The delegation urged the Iranian leader to announce a halt to enrichment, even if temporary, before the Nov. 6 election, promising removal of some sanctions.
The source said the delegation warned that a Mitt Romney presidency would change the U.S. relationship with Iran regarding its nuclear program.
The U.S. representatives reminded the Iranians that President Obama has stood in front of Israel, preventing the Jewish state from attacking Iran over its illicit nuclear arms policy.
The head of Iran’s Atomic Organization, Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, admitted last month that misleading facts were used to deceive the West and protect the country’s nuclear advances.
The revelation of the secret Iranian nuclear site, if verified, will dramatically change the Western outlook on the timing of Iran’s nuclear capability and will prove that not only the 2007 NIE conclusion was based on disinformation, but that the Islamic regime has already crossed Israel’s “red line” and is closing in on nuclear capability.
Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, a Revolutionary Guards officer and father of three, is on the U.N. Security Council asset freeze and travel notification list and was the key figure in negotiations and exchange of information with Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb project, over Iran’s nuclear program. According to the source, he travels under the pseudonym of Hassan Mohseni.
He has been a mysterious figure as Iranian authorities have continuously denied the IAEA’s request to interview him. He and his team of scientists have continued their work out of the new secret site, the source said.
and....
http://www.infowars.com/nato-designed-mortar-used-in-attack-blamed-on-syria/
( False Flag warning regarding Syria... they are picking up the pace , just need to put those chemical weapons into play....)
NATO Designed Mortar Used in Attack Blamed on Syria
Infowars.com
October 8, 2012
October 8, 2012
Photo by ISAF Public Affairs.
October Turkey’s Yurt newspaper reports that the mortar used to attack the Turkish town of Akcakale is of NATO design.
According to the newspaper’s Editor-in-Chief, Merdan Yanardag, the mortars were sent to the CIA-backed Free Syria Army. Yanardag cites reliable sources, Russia Today reports.
“Turkey is a longtime member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and they’re going to act in conjunction with other NATO powers, so it’s unsurprising that this has happened,” editor of the Pan-African news wire, Abayomi Azikiwe, told RT.
The establishment media in the United States has not carried the story and continues to blame Syria for the incident.
The New York Times, however, reported last week that it was not certain who was responsible for the shell landing inside on Turkey’s side of the border.
“It was unknown whether the mortar shells were fired by Syrian government forces or rebels fighting to topple the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The Turkish response seemed to assume that the Syrian government was responsible,” the newspaper reported on October 3.
http://www.infowars.com/turkey-shells-syria-for-sixth-day-says-worst-case-scenario-unfolding/
Turkey Shells Syria for Sixth Day, Says “Worst Case Scenario” Unfolding
Kurt Nimmo
Infowars.com
October 8, 2012
Infowars.com
October 8, 2012
The Turkish military shelled Syria for a sixth straight day Monday after the provincial governor’s office claimed a Syrian round landed in a cotton field near the town of Altinozu in the border province of Hatay.
The CIA-backed Free Syria Army is based in Antakya, the largest city in Hatay. The FSA is armed and funded by the Gulf States of Saudi Arabia and Qatar and receives logistics from the United States. As we noted in September, there is ample evidence that a large number of FSA rebels are in fact members of al-Qaeda.
The Hatay city of Akcakale is a key supply route for the FSA and other so-called rebels.
Turkish President Abdullah Gul warned of a regional conflagration and said “the worst-case scenario we have all been dreading” is unfolding on the border.
“You have to be ready as if you were going to war anytime,” Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday.
On Saturday, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said that the conflict on the border between Syria and Turkey may spread to neighboring countries and create a regional war.
In response to the latest incident, the Turkish military moved tanks and missile defense systems to the Syrian border. “A convoy of military vehicles towing howitzers headed toward the border town of Reyhanli in Hatay province today and the army sent reinforcements, including tanks and missile defense systems,” Bloomberg reports today.
According to Faruk Logoglu, head of Foreign Relations of the opposition Republican People’s Party in Turkey and the former Turkish ambassador to the United States, his country’s meddling in Syria has increased the possibility of war between the two nations and the prospect of a wider and far more devastating conflict in the region.
“This one-sided policy, aiming to remove Bashar al-Assad by intervention in the domestic affairs of our neighbor, really intensified the conflict, sharpened the conflict, and probably resulted in more deaths than would have [occurred] otherwise,” Logoglu said last week.
They better hurry because Europe definitely needs a redirection away from focusing on their PIIGS mess...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-30/ahead-major-october-redemptions-spanish-treasury-cash-slides-two-year-low
Ahead Of Major October Redemptions, Spanish Treasury Cash Slides To Two Year Low
A month ago, when we first presented the dwindling Spanish treasury cash position, we wrote: "once the next Spanish State Liability update is posted, we wouldn't be surprised to see this number plunge to a new post-Lehman low. Yet what is scariest is that all else equal (and it never is), at the current run rate Spain may well run out of cash by the end of the year even assuming it manages to conclude all its remaining auctions through year's end without a glitch." The August cash balance update was just released by the Banco de Espana, and there's good news, unsurprising news and bad news.
The good news: the new number, which came at €19 billion (compared to July's €23.2 billion) is not a now post-Lehman low. Yet. That number is still the €16.3 billion from August 2009.
The unsurprising news is that the August cash balance is the lowest it has been since August 2010, a time when Spanish banks were notopenly insolvent, and when Spain did not openly need a bailout.
The bad news, is that as we expected last month, the burn rate, of over €4 billion per month, is one which still would mean that absent a major cash injection, Spain will run out of money by the end of the year.
Actually, there is even worse news: while in September, which is now over, there were no material cash needs that we know of (aside from the endless budget deficit), October is a very different story.
As we wrote in "The Chart Spain's Mariano Rajoy Wishes Could Be Swept Under The Rug", Spain has a major net cash outflow in the month that has just started, an outflow which unless some magical source of cash is promptly procured, then Rajoy will need a real bailout, as opposed to the faux ECB-mandated one, which buys the country some time to fund itself for a few more weeks, before that can kicking exercise too fades.
Here is what else we wrote:As is quite obvious on the chart above, and explains Goldman's urgency with a formal Spanish ECB activation request, the closer we get to October, the closer Spain gets to running out of cash. And in that particular case none of the currently implemented reality countermeasures will do anything to hide the fact that Europe's emperor was naked from the very beginning.
The flowchart then becomes as follows:
1. Find out what the Spanish cash balance was as of August. If the economy indeed contracted far more than expected, which it likely did, this number should dip below €20 billion for the first time since August 2011.
2. The September number will not be known until a month later. However, it is safe to assume that it will not be a blockbuster cash surge.
3. If the total cash balance extrapolated going into October is close to the ~€15 billion needed to satisfy the Net Cash Requirement, watch out below, as "Plan Silvio" comes into play.3.5. What is "Plan Silvio" you may ask? Simple - in November 2011, the ECB made it very clear it would no longer purchase Italian bonds as long as Berlusconi was in charge. In essence, this was the first act of the now totally political ECB, courtesy of its then-brand new president Mario Draghi, who had replaced JC Trichet days earlier. End result: Italian bonds soared to their post-Eurozone highs, and Silvio was promptly replaced with a Goldman technocrat. Just as was planned from the beginning.4. Of course, Plan Silvio will be called Plan Marianoin its 2012 version. It will, however, manifest itself in identical terms to its prior iteration: a bond curve inversion which forces the current administration to do the biddings of the market. Should the Spanish bond curve, however, invert, it would mean that the 2 years will literally implode, as the matched yield will soar by 300-400 bps.
5. Next steps: in 2011, one firm that literally bet the farm that the ECB would not allow a curve inversion in Italy (it did), as a catalyst to replacing the current government, was everyone's favorite client money vaporized: MF Global. Should Plan Mariano be a "go", we can only wonder how many other hedge funds and prime brokers will suffer the MF Global fate, now that buying the Spanish short end is the "no brainer" trade of 2012.Naturally, all of the above assumes that the Spanish economic contraction has continued, and its funding needs are over and above those budgeted at the beginning of the year when the Treasury bond issuance schedule was announced.
Ironically, now that Silvio Berlucosni is being groomed by Mario Monti to reenter Italian politics, this time properly educated in the unconditional requirements of the global banking syndicate (never tell the truth; always do as your Goldman superiors tell you to; sit; smile; don't assume for a moment you are in charge and just play with the underage girls), it is Spain's Mariano Rajoy that is increasingly becoming a globalist headache, something which every other technocrat in Europe, and its banks, is becoming aware of.
Unless Rajoy changes his ways and very quickly, and by this we mean the next 47-72 hours, and demands a bailout, except the ECB to pull "Plan Silvio" on Monti, and quickly and quietly replace him with yet another Goldman field agent, currently getting his debriefing and ready to act unless Rajoy finally does as he is told...
then factor in the 3.8 bilion ESM payment Spain needs by 10/25 ....
The ESM Has Been Inaugurated: Spain's €3.8 Billion Invoice Is In The Mail
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2012 - 13:00Bridgewater Budget Deficit callable default European Central Bank France GermanyGreece International Monetary Fund Italy Monetization Primary Market Ray Dalio
Now that the ESM has been officially inaugurated, to much pomp and fanfare out of Europe this morning, many are wondering not so much where the full debt backstop funding of the instrument will come from (it is clear that in a closed-loop Ponzi system, any joint and severally liable instrument will need to get funding from its joint and severally liable members), as much as where the equity "paid-in" capital will originate, since in Europe all but the AAA-rated countries are insolvent, and current recipients of equity-level bailouts from the "core." As a reminder, as part of the ESM's synthetic structure, the 17 member countries have to fund €80 billion of paid-in capital (i.e. equity buffer) which in turn serves as a 11.4% first loss backstop for the remainder of the €620 billion callable capital (we have described the CDO-like nature of the ESM before on many occasions in the past). The irony of a country like Greece precommiting to a €19.7 billion capital call, or Spain to €83.3 billion, or Italy to €125.4 billion, is simply beyond commentary. Obviously by the time the situation gets to the point where the Greek subscription of €20 billion is the marginal European rescue cash, it will be game over. The hope is that it never gets to that point. There is, however, some capital that inevitably has to be funded, which even if nominal, may prove to be a headache for the "subscriber" countries. The payment schedule of that capital "invoicing" has been transformed from the original ESM document, and instead of 5 equal pro rata annual payments has been accelerated to a 40%, 40%, 20% schedule. And more importantly, "The first two instalments (€32 billion) will be paid in within 15 days of ESM inauguration." In other words, October 23 is the deadline by which an already cash-strapped Spain, has to pay-in the 40% of its €9.5 billion, or €3.8 billion, contribution, or else.
Spain will then have 2 years in which to fund the balance of its remaining €5.7 billion equity subscription commitment.
What happens, at least on paper, if Spain is ever "equity" deficient? Here is what the ESM Treaty has to say on this particular matter:
If any ESM Member fails to pay any part of the amount due in respect of its obligations in relation to paid-in shares or calls of capital under Articles 8, 9 and 10, or in relation to the reimbursement of the financial assistance under Article 16 or 17, such ESM Member shall be unable, for so long as such failure continues, to exercise any of its voting rights. The voting thresholds shall be recalculated accordingly.
And this:
If an ESM Member fails to meet the required payment under a capital call made pursuant to Article 9(2) or (3),a revised increased capital call shall be made to all ESM Members with a view to ensuring that the ESM receives the total amount of paid-in capital needed.The Board of Governors shall decide an appropriate course of action for ensuring that the ESM Member concerned settles its debt to the ESM within a reasonable period of time. The Board of Governors shall be entitled to require the payment of default interest on the overdue amount.
So , between the redemptions and the ESM payment , Spain is Greece - just by the end of October rather than November as Greece has claimed to be its drop dead date....then look at the Calendar for further political problems for Spain seeking a bailout in the near term....Due to the Regional Election on October 21 , 2012 , Spain will try not to seek a bailout before that date....Dates in November AFTER the US Election but before Catalonia has its Regional election on november 25th are similarly problematic ( the same issue as the Regional election poses on October 21) ..... can Spain stay afloat until after November 25th , can the EU intervene without a cover ? Paging Syria , Iran , Al Qaeda , Taliban..... you are needed in Brussels immediately.....
8-9 October: Eurogroup/ECOFIN finance ministers meetings. Our expectation is that some compromise will be found to bring some relief to Greece. Exit will be avoided. However, based on comments from Eurogroup President Juncker on 14 September the Troika conclusions on Greece are unlikely to be made in the first half of October but “hopefully” not as late as November. This points towards the EU leaders’ summit on 18-19 October as the most likely time for decisions. The October ECOFIN meeting was also when decisions were due to be taken on how to reduce the Irish legacy bank funding costs, for example, through swapping the promissory notes for EFSF bonds. This current sounds too ambitious a timeframe also.
18-19 October: EU leaders' summit. This is emerging as being the key political date for the EU to conclude the review of the Greek loan programme. Likely to be on the agenda for this meeting are the proposals for a common supervisory regime for banks under the ECB -- this will be the basis for a direct bank recapitalisation mechanism in the future and the second and more detailed euro integration roadmap from Van Rompuy, Barroso, Juncker and Draghi.
21 October: Spanish regional elections. The Basque Country and Galicia hold elections.
* * *
4 November: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. Meet in Mexico.
7 November: European Commission Economic Forecasts.
8 November: Spain auction. Bonds.
8 November: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference.
12/13 November: Eurogroup/ECOFIN finance ministers’ meetings.
22-23 November: EU Leaders’ Summit. Ostensibly to discuss the EU Budget for 2014-2020, but also an occasion to address crisis policies.
25 November: Catalonia regional election. Early elections for the parliament of the autonomous region called by Arturo Mas, head of the Catalan regional government.
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