http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0525/breaking62.html
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0522/1224316502245.html
Yes campaign on course for victory in referendum
The Yes campaign is on course for victory in European stability treaty referendum on May 31st, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, but the outcome is still in the hands of undecided voters.
Asked how they were likely to vote on the treaty, 39 per cent of voters said Yes, 30 per cent said No and 31 per cent either didn’t know or won’t vote.
When undecided voters are excluded support for the Yes side stands at 57 per cent with No support at 43 per cent.
Support for the Yes side has increased by nine points since the last Irish Times poll five weeks ago while support for the No has gone up by seven points.
The number of undecided voters has come down by 17 points since the last poll.
The poll was taken between lunchtime on Wednesday and lunchtime yesterday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.
Apart from reducing the number of undecided voters the strong campaigns being waged by the Yes and No sides has resulted in stalemate with no significant shift in support since the campaign began.
After the exclusion of undecided voters the Yes side is down one point and the No side up one point compared to five weeks ago.
However, it would take a dramatic shift to the No side in the final days of the campaign for the treaty to be defeated.
At a similar stage in the second referendum on the Lisbon treaty in September, 2009, the Irish Times poll produced a similar result with 59 per cent Yes and 41 per cent No after the exclusion of undecided voters. .
In the event the treaty was carried by 67 per cent to 33 per cent.
Still the Government will be worried that the number of undecided voters remains stubbornly high and is capable of changing the final outcome.
When undecided voters are excluded support for the Yes side stands at 57 per cent with No support at 43 per cent.
Support for the Yes side has increased by nine points since the last Irish Times poll five weeks ago while support for the No has gone up by seven points.
The number of undecided voters has come down by 17 points since the last poll.
The poll was taken between lunchtime on Wednesday and lunchtime yesterday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.
Apart from reducing the number of undecided voters the strong campaigns being waged by the Yes and No sides has resulted in stalemate with no significant shift in support since the campaign began.
After the exclusion of undecided voters the Yes side is down one point and the No side up one point compared to five weeks ago.
However, it would take a dramatic shift to the No side in the final days of the campaign for the treaty to be defeated.
At a similar stage in the second referendum on the Lisbon treaty in September, 2009, the Irish Times poll produced a similar result with 59 per cent Yes and 41 per cent No after the exclusion of undecided voters. .
In the event the treaty was carried by 67 per cent to 33 per cent.
Still the Government will be worried that the number of undecided voters remains stubbornly high and is capable of changing the final outcome.
On the positive side for the Government there has been a big change in public opinion since last October when the fiscal treaty was still being negotiated. At that stage just 37 per cent said they would vote Yes to the treaty while 63 per cent said No.
The details of today’s poll show that the Yes campaign continues to have strong backing from middle-class voters while working-class voters remain opposed to the treaty.
One big change in the course of the campaign is that the significant gender difference, between men and women has been eliminated with both now equally supportive of the treaty.
In party terms Fine Gael voters are easily strongest the supporters of the treaty with 74 per cent Yes and just 8 per cent No. Labour voters are not as strongly committed with 46 per cent Yes and 29 per cent No. Fianna Fáil voters are more strongly in favour of the treaty by 50 per cent to 23 per cent.
Sinn Féin supporters are the strongest opponents of the treaty with 66 per cent No to 13 per cent while supporters of Independents and smaller parties are also against the treaty by 41 per cent to 34 per cent.
The details of today’s poll show that the Yes campaign continues to have strong backing from middle-class voters while working-class voters remain opposed to the treaty.
One big change in the course of the campaign is that the significant gender difference, between men and women has been eliminated with both now equally supportive of the treaty.
In party terms Fine Gael voters are easily strongest the supporters of the treaty with 74 per cent Yes and just 8 per cent No. Labour voters are not as strongly committed with 46 per cent Yes and 29 per cent No. Fianna Fáil voters are more strongly in favour of the treaty by 50 per cent to 23 per cent.
Sinn Féin supporters are the strongest opponents of the treaty with 66 per cent No to 13 per cent while supporters of Independents and smaller parties are also against the treaty by 41 per cent to 34 per cent.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0522/1224316502245.html
Sharp exchanges and accusations in TV debate
HARRY McGEE, Political Correspondent
LEADING CAMPAIGNERS from both sides of the referendum debate clashed sharply several times in the course of the televised Frontline debate on RTÉ last night, with each side accusing the other of peddling “fairytale” solutions.
The hour-long debate descended into chaos on several occasions, with the four speakers being interrupted by their rivals and by members of the audience. At one stage, host Pat Kenny was forced to shout down a farmer advocating a No vote, who claimed that passing the fiscal treaty would end the Common Agriculture Policy for Ireland.
Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore and businesswoman Norah Casey were the speakers advocating a Yes vote, with Sinn Féin’s deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald and businessman Declan Ganley arguing for a No vote.
There were several heated exchanges between the speakers from each side on whether or not Ireland could access the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in the event of a No vote. Both Mr Gilmore and Ms Casey argued that the ESM would be the only source of funding available to Ireland in the event of the State needing a second bailout, and that was only available if the referendum was passed.
Ms McDonald and Mr Ganley contended separately that the ESM would still be available to Ireland and that there was room to negotiate.
Mr Ganley said that Ireland could veto a change to Article 136 of the separate Treaty for the Functioning of the European Union, which would effectively prevent the ESM from coming into being. Mr Gilmore strongly disputed that this could materialise.
The Tánaiste opened the debate by claiming that No proponents were forwarding “fairytale solutions”. Both Mr Ganly and Ms McDonald argued that the final shape of the treaty might not be known until the summit of EU leaders in June, when the growth agenda advocated by new French president François Hollande will be discussed.
Ms Casey and Mr Gilmore argued that the treaty would not be changed but that the French might succeed in achieving a protocol in much the same way as Ireland did for the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
The Tánaiste was put under pressure several times when defending the Government’s handling of the bank debt issue at EU level. When he argued that Ireland had achieved a reduction in interest rate, and a deferral of the payment in the promissory note in March, Mr Ganley taunted him with his own slogan: “It’s Frankfurt’s way or Labour’s way”.
“You failed, Tánaiste,” he said on several occasions.
But Mr Gilmore said that neither Sinn Féin nor Mr Ganley could put forward alternative solutions.
“If this country does not get back into the markets at the end of 2013 and we need emergency money to pay for hospitals, schools and welfare, the only source of that funding will be the ESM.
“If we reject the treaty we are heading into the unknown,” he said.
He said that the treaty and the ESM funding that would be guaranteed was the only source of stability.
Ms McDonald also claimed that the Tánaiste’s acknowledgement that there might be a need for a second bailout showed that “we are headed straight into bailout number two”. “The only fairy tale is that somehow by sucking additional billions of euro out of the economy you will get growth,” she said.
Ms Casey said the referendum was about common sense, about being calm and being diplomatic. She said that the ESM would give Ireland a cheap source of money that would not be available from any other source.
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http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0525/1224316665143.html
Undecided TD finally supports No vote
ONE OF three Independent TDs who had not taken a public position on the fiscal treaty last night declared he would be recommending a No vote.
Finian McGrath, sitting in Dublin North Central, said he would be urging constituents to vote No in the poll next Thursday.
Another of the undecided group, Shane Ross, a Dublin South TD, last night said he had “no news” on his intentions. It is not known whether he will make public his intentions ahead of next week’s vote. He had no further comment.
The third TD, Tipperary South’s Mattie McGrath, was not contactable last night.
Setting out his reasons for recommending a No vote, Finian McGrath said: “It was a difficult decision, but after weighing up all of the facts I concluded the treaty did not inspire confidence in Ireland and across the EU.
“Economic growth and jobs should have been the heart of this treaty, and a deal on the debt should have been a priority. The Government and the Yes side have thrown in the towel, and people across Europe are dismayed by their gross incompetence.”
For his part, Mr Ross tried unsuccessfully earlier this week to introduce legislation in the Dáil that would delay the referendum.
At a press conference last week he complained people were being asked to vote in a vacuum without knowing the final shape of the treaty. He had said he would wait until after Wednesday’s summit of European leaders before declaring. He denied as “nonsense” suggestions his inclination was to a No vote, but that he was not saying so publicly because his constituents were overwhelmingly in favour of the treaty.
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