Friday, April 20, 2012

Around the horn - The guardian liveblog....


12.42pm: Interesting story on the FT site about results expected from Greek banks this afternoon after the markets there close.
Not surprisingly it says the results are expected to be dismal after the banks were involved in the biggest sovereign restructuring in history. The FT reports that analysts expect the banks to suffer losses of €33bn on their Greek government bond holdings of €42bn. Hopefully more on this later.
12.21pm: While we're waiting for Christine Lagarde to speak in Washington it might be worth looking more at the issues around her plea for more money from IMF members.
The key is to get more from so-called emerging nations such as Brazil and Russia. According to Reuters, the latter is offering $10bn and said that countries were ready to commit enough funds to fulfill Lagarde's request for at least $400bn to draw a line under the euro-zone crisis.
"Trust me that the G20 will announce the final amount. This will be an amount that will satisfy the management of the International Monetary Fund," said Sergei Storchak, Russia's deputy finance minister.
But Brazil, Reuters says, wants more concrete promises of more say for emerging countries written into the G20 communique in exchange for their support.
It reports:
They are frustrated over delays - particularly by the United States - in implementing an agreement to lessen Europe's sway at the IMF and lift China into the No. 3 voting slot. "What we want and demand in every meeting is that this commitment be reaffirmed," Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said.
8.52am: The rise in Spanish yields is no surprise in the City where there has been a fair amount of scepticism about the, shall we say, transparency of the bond auctions there this week.
This post yesterday from City veteran David Buik is typical:
This morning I sent out a rather cryptic tweet on the subject of the day's Spanish bond auction – words to the effect that Tuesday's sale of 1 year and 18 months bills at an average yield of 2.6% by predominantly Spanish banks, which were filling their boots with ECB money at 1% was a doddle and not really in need of the services of a rocket scientist to work out the locked in benefit of that transaction.
I then implied that the 2year and 10-year auction would sort the men out from the bys! Not a bit of it! The punters appeared to gobble up the auctions with indecent enthusiasm. Both auctions were oversubscribed 2 and 3 times respectively.
Eventually the market smelt a rat – possible skulduggery? The market eventually decided on a sell off, as it was convinced that today's auction was rigged with massive support from the ECB and other Central banks to make it look like an unqualified success! At the end of the day the kissing has to stop. If austerity measures, however painful, are not implemented, the level of unsustainable debt will not only turn out to be toxic, but also be a real threat to democracy. Spain is too big to fail; so the EU must be honest in telling the markets that it will take care of it. Spain is different from Greece. There is a smidgen of hope in the long term!
8.39am: The rise in 10-year Spanish bond yields (borrowing costs currently at 6.009%) links directly to the goings-on in Washington, where the IMF boss Christine Lagarde is trying to convince memebrs to stump up more cash to help pay for future bailouts.
If Spain gets into trouble - and 6%+ borrowing costs are the first sign that a country's fiscal position is becoming unsustainable - the EU/ECB/IMF troika will need a huge fund to rescue what is Europe's fifth largest economy.
But as Michael Hewson of CMC Markets UK points out this morning, it might not be enough.
Yesterday's claim by IMF chief Christine Lagarde that an agreement on an extra $400bn of funding should be reached this weekend is rapidly becoming beside the point. Even if a promise of more funds is agreed from some members it is extremely unlikely that any money will be forthcoming from the US anytime this side of the election in November, if at all, or from Canada for that matter. In any case the amount would be totally inadequate if Spain's fiscal situation, with respect to its banks were to deteriorate to such an extent to require some form of bailout in the coming weeks and months, let alone by the end of the year.
A spat last night between Canadian finance minister Flaherty and German ECB member Asmussen highlights the differences simmering beneath the surface among a number of countries who believe that Europe has not done anywhere near enough to deal with its own problems, and resent being asked to put their hands in their pockets when Germany seems unwilling to go the extra mile for a currency that has benefitted them enormously.
The reluctance of Germany to accept the urgency of the situation unfolding in Spain and the rest of southern Europe can probably be traced to the fact that the German economy is not experiencing the hardships or harsh realities of the austerity measures being imposed on the rest of the squeezed European economies.
8.16am: That market jitteriness that we expected has been reflected already with Spanish bond yields on benchmark 10-year money going back above 6% this morning. They crept above the danger mark on Monday for the first time this year but investors clearly still concerned about the country's prospects.
8.00am: Good morning and welcome to the euro crisis blog.
Today's agenda looks like being dominated by the IMF/G20 finance ministers meeting in Washington and Christine Lagarde's attempts to squeeze an extra $400bn out of members in order to bolster funds for future euro calamities. Members include the UK of course with chancellor George Osborne in the US capital for the meeting, but also emerging nations such as Brazil who will stump up the cash but only in exchange for more say in how the organisation is run.
There's a meeting between officials from the various countries and the IMF later today after which we expect an announcement. Our own Larry Elliott is there.
Otherwise today more nerviness expected in the markets ahead of the first round of the French elections on Sunday and continued uncertainty around Spain and Italy's economic prospects.

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