Friday, October 13, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views.....October 13 , 2017......Quick Hits For Friday-1) Markets - US : S&P / DOW / Nasdaq - All End Week On All Time Highs , Volatility For October On Pace For Least Volatile Month Ever ; Apart from Stocks , Rising Tide Floated Almost All Asset Classes This Week - Treasuries , Corporate Bonds , Gold , Oil ; Additional Items To Consider. 2) US Politics : POTUS Does Not Certify Iran Compliance With JCOPA & Sanctions IRGC - Response From EU , Europe / Russia & Iran ; Nafta Updates ; Healthcare State Of Play ; Las Vegas Massacre Sheriff / FBI Presser ; Puerto Rico Updates For Friday. 3) Spain- Clock Ticking For Puigedemont , Decision Time Comes Early Next Week On Declaring Independence. 4) Odds & Ends.


Markets....



Wall Street Week S&P: All-Time High Dow: All-Time High Nasdaq: All-Time High NYSE: All-Time High Global Dow: All-Time High





ZH-"Buy it all...On the week-Stocks are up, Treasury Bonds are up, Corporate Bonds are up, Gold is up, Bitcoin is up, and WTI Crude is up."


NY FX wrap...






October has historically been the most volatile month. This October: on pace for the least volatile month ever.





another timestamp





Bitcoin Poll Results: 39% say bubble, 17% say overvalued. Same poll at $2,200 in May: 51%/25%. Price up 141%, more say it's undervalued.




UMich 101.1, Exp. 95.0



Retail sales 1.6%, Exp. 1.7% Retail sales ex Autos 1.0%, Exp. 0.9%



Core CPI 1.7%, Exp. 1.8%



CPI 2.2%, Exp. 2.3%



US Politics....



NAFTA....



Where things stand for now..


Replying to 
U.S. tables NAFTA dairy demands but not seeking more access to Canadian market, CBC's Katie Simpson reports. Wants 'greater transparency.'



Replying to 
U.S. Commerce Secretary describes U.S. demand for drastic hikes in auto content rules as 'small changes.' Says NAFTA has been 'very unfair.'



NAFTA update...



Exclusive: U.S. seeks to include steel, aluminum in NAFTA autos rules - sources





Healthcare....



: 15 states sue Trump for ending key ObamaCare payments





JUST IN: Insurers rip into Trump for ending ObamaCare subsidies: "Costs will go up and choices will be restricted"




Open enrollment for plan year 2018 starts in two weeks...



POTUS tweet confirms insurance subsidies have been stopped. Will be interesting to monitor impacts.




JCOPA...



IAEA SAYS NUCLEAR RELATED COMMITMENTS UNDERTAKEN BY UNDER JCPOA ARE BEING IMPLEMENTED: RTRS.


IAEA SAYS SO FAR, IT HAS HAD ACCESS TO ALL LOCATIONS IT NEEDED TO VISIT IN : RTRS.


DG amano of reacts to policy and decertification of



Rouhani response to Trump <thread> Bottom line: Iran will continue to stay in as long as it's in national interest.


Replying to 
Rouhani: We will continue to respect the US nation. It's up to you to choose the right path and respect the Iranian people.



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Rouhani: The US's goal is to stop our economic progress, but despite these efforts we will continue to grow.



taking advantage of ’s speech to unite Iranians. Points to EU/Russia/China’s opposition “For the 1st time US is isolated.”



Iran’s President Rouhani says Iran will double its efforts to build weapons for deterrence, expand its missile programme



IRAN'S ROUHANI SAYS IRANIAN NATION HAS NOT, WILL NEVER YIELD TO PRESSURE BY ANY FOREIGN GOVERNMENT - TV


ROUHANI: WILL REMAIN IN DEAL AS LONG AS SERVES OUR INTERESTS



IRAN'S ROUHANI SAYS NO CLAUSES CAN BE ADDED TO NUCLEAR DEAL - TV



Treasury Department sanctions...


Russian foreign ministry slams Trump's Iran strategy, says nuclear deal intact



Replying to 
3 of 7 signatories to Iran nuclear deal reaffirm support. Britain, France, Germany 'concerned by the possible implications' of Trump's move.



Replying to 
2 other signatories (China, Russia) have also reiterated their support for the nuclear deal in recent days.



Joint UK/France/German leaders' statement: We are concerned by possible implications of Trump decertification. 1/



Replying to 
May/Macron/Merkel: We stand committed to the JCPoA & its full impl'n by all sides. Preserving JCPoA is in our shared nat'l security interest



Pres Trump's speech ran 18mins 30 secs. Now up to Congress to decide whether to reimpose sanctions or enact new Iran Nuclear Review Act.



Replying to   
“I am announcing today that we cannot and will not make this certification,” says .



Replying to  
sanctioned by “and I urge our allies to join us.”



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"We will deny the regime all paths to a nuclear weapon,” declares .



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“I am announcing a new strategy to address the full range of Iran’s destructive actions.”



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“There are also many people who believe that Iran is dealing with North Korea,” says calling for a US thorough intelligence analysis.


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It has also intimidated international inspectors, according to .



Replying to  
has committed multiple violations of the , contends .



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2015 “was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.”


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“Worst of all the deal allows Iran to continuing developing” elements of its nuclear program.



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Saddest part of deal of for the US is money was paid upfront instead of the end of the deal, declares .



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“I am directing my administration to work with Congress and our allies,” to address flaws in , including sunset clauses.



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Flaws include “insufficient enforcement and near total silence on Iran’s missile programs.”



Replying to   
- wants all restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities permanent under US law.



Replying to   
“We hope that these new measures directed at the Iranian government” will compel it to re-evaluate, says .



Replying to   
If Congress can’t take sufficient remedies, then says he’ll terminate .



Subject: EMBARGOED President Donald J. Trump's New Strategy on Iran


Puerto Rico.....


Gov Rosselló says he asked speaker Ryan to help with rebuilding Puerto Rico "better than before"


One of speaker Ryan's focus was the agriculture sector, which was "essentially wiped out", said Rosselló


On the debt, gov Rosselló did say that the level of devastation left by Maria needs to be considered



Gov Rosselló argued the strategy to restore the electric service is a two-prong approach: 1st is to energize all areas 1/2



The 2nd step would be establish a more modern system. One that resembles more closely the systems in the states 2/2


"The healthcare system is working at suboptimal level"- Rosselló and says hospitals need electricity from the grid soon


Puerto Rico governor says that months long schedule to restore electric power is unacceptable


. says main focus atm is to save lives, keep hospitals running. More phases to come.



. says that he is fully invested in Puerto Rico; more aid coming down the pike.



Questions rising about what Prepa is up regarding Palo Seco Power Station...




USVI governor asks Congress for $5.5 billion aid package -




Important updates regarding status of electric grid - fourth system failure since Maria causes fresh round of BOs.






"There is a healthcare crisis here", says a volunteer nurse. She is part of a group of 50 volunteer nurses from AFL-CIO



AFL-CIO rep says they were able to provide volunteers because "of the strong collaboration with mayor Carmen Yulín"


T-Mobile rep says they have signal in 38 municipalities and are now focusing on municipalities in the center of the island


T-Mobile rep says damages in PR's telecommunications grid are more expensive than "starting a system from scratch"



23 days later-electric grid concerns continue & distribution of aid concerns continue. News for Friday.




Las Vegas....



Sheriff: This press conference will be a little bit different. More informational. Less Q&A.




Las Vegas Sheriff presser ....timeline discrepancies





FBI: We have no evidence of any ideology or allegiance to any group.



FBI: We are still reviewing hours upon hours of video footage from the Strip



FBI: We have a 24/7 command post and have deployed people across the country to the United States. Nothing will be overlooked.



Sheriff: I still stand by time of 9:59, but I agree with MGM's statement. Jesus Campos encountered the door at 9:59, hadn't been shot yet




Sheriff: The shooter adjusted his fire and aimed specifically at police vehicles.



Sheriff: There is no conspiracy between the FBI, the LVMPD, and MGM.



Sheriff: As of 8:00 this morning, 547 injured. 501 of those have been discharged



Sheriff: 58 is the number of people who have died. 45 are still in the hospital. 58 may raise. By the grace of God, hopefully it doesn't.



Sheriff: The shooter changed the way he registered and paid for the room on 28th, therefore the information at the beginning was inaccurate



Sheriff: We performed a very preliminary visual inspection of shooter. Autopsy showed no abnormalities, but we still have ways to go on that



Spain...



LATEST: Spanish Deputy PM warns government would revise economic forecasts downwards "if there weren't a solution to events in Catalonia".



LATEST: Spanish Deputy PM says government has asked Puigdemont "a simple question to put an end to a complex matter".


LATEST: Spanish Deputy PM says only thing that can be demanded from all political leaders is not dialogue but to comply with the law.


531 Companies have moved Corporate HQ from Catalonia since October 1st !



Clock is ticking...



Really no reason to keep suspension in place when there is no real opportunity for mediation.



⚠️ Juncker says Brussels cannot mediate between Catalonia and Spain if only one side asks it to do so





Odds & Ends....


Twitter deleted data that may be important in Russia probe: report




French judge is investigating Danske Bank over Magnitsky money-laundering allegations via



Britain must pay EU budget liabilities estimated up to £47 billion to avoid a Brexit cliff edge, Juncker says



North Korea



Replying to 
Trump on North Korea "if it's going to be something other than negotiation, believe me we are ready, more so than we have ever been"





Guam threat revived by NK. Something to keep an eye on...




Replying to 
P-3 anti-Sub aircraft, F-15k, FA-18,A10 fighter jets. Lynx, AW-159,UH-159,UH-60 & MH-60R helicopters will all take part.




Replying to 
South Korean Battleships & submarines will also take part in the waters around South Korea. 40 battleships will take part.



Replying to 
USS Ronald Regan aircraft carrier accompanied by Aegis Destroyers will take part in the military exercises.



USS Michigan a US Submarine has arrived in Busan, South Korea ahead of joint military exercises between US & SK.




Kurdistan....



Jenan Moussa thread on the ground in Kirkuk.





Iraq PM reiterates no attack on Kurdistan in the cards.






Regardless of what you see in the news about IQ/Kurd/TR, the oil just keeps on shipping without ANY problems. 1M barrels today.




Is conflict looming between Peshmerga and Iraqi forces ? Hard to tell from the news flow....




: Peshmerga chief of staff and Peshmerga commanders are holding emergency meeting south of Kirkuk, Rudaw reporter