Saturday, October 14, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views ...... October 14 , 2017..... Topics Of Interest For Saturday-1) Global Market Weekly Highlights And Items To Consider : Doug Noland's Credit Bulletin For The Weekly Rundown ; KSA May Choose To Limit IPO of Aramco Shares to Riyadh Exchange ; Weekly Updates Regarding Global Bonds & China's Credit Bubble ( H/T Holger S ) ; Bitcoin Items & Additional Items Of Interest. 2) Hurricane Orphelia - As Orphelia Tracks Toward Ireland And The UK , Strong Winds & Downpours In Forecast For Early Next Week. 3) Iraq/ Kurdistan - Updates For Present State Of Play In Tense Aftermath Subsequent To Kurdistan's Recent Independence Referendum. 4) Syria Updates - Al Mayadin Has Been Taken From ISIS By SAA Forces , SDF Makes Further In-roads At Raqqa & Deir Ezzor Governorate. 5) US Politics Updates On Puerto Rico ; Swampland News , Additional Items Of note. 6) Odds & Ends !

Global Markets...

Always interesting Doug Noland Essay compares current market conditions with 1999....good wrap for news and weekly data , as well.

Saudi Arabia is not ruling out the option of limiting the initial sale of Aramco shares only on the Riyadh stock exchange.

Bond bubble begins to inflate again. Value of global bonds rose $566bn this week following a miss in US CPI & dovish reports on QE.

credit bubble continues to inflate. Loan growth exceeds estimates despite regulatory curbs.

Fink and Dimon have been banging drum hard against crypto-currencies. Keep an eye on what key regulators do.

JP Morgan Boss Can’t Stop Talking About Bitcoin — Calls Investors “Stupid”

Hurricane Orphelia..

Orphelia now a Cat 3 Hurricane !

Hurricane Advisory 22: Ophelia Becomes a Rare Category 3 Hurricane South of The Azores.

Hurricane Orphelia on track for Ireland on Monday....

View Meteosat at of Hurricane now with satellite intensity estimates exceeding 100 knots (major!) T 5.5-5.8

The braces for powerful winds and downpours from early next week:



Situation continues to escalate in as Iraqi forces collect to the south of the city.

See my quick-skim info-graphic on "splitting the difference" on Iraqi/Kurdish control of the sensitive Kirkuk Regional Air Base (KRAB).

Iraq also wants to re-enter K1 base, where there might be opportunities for a joint HQ, and similar reassurance measures as with KRAB.

Iraq also seeks re-entry to the Bai Hassan, Avana & Khabbaz oilfields, and again, there are confidence-building options in these areas also.

Keep your eyes on this ....

Turkey & Turkey businessmen have a lot of money at risk if the pipeline is shutdown , so for now it will remain open.

Fwiw , various statements are being made regarding Kirkuk , so what you read with grains of salt.

1 hour ago
What happens the next time Iraqi forces ( PMU & Federal Police ) demand Peshmerga withdraw from their positions ?

PUK spox: No decision made by party to enter into talks with Baghdad unilaterally

Large reinforcements sent towards the border with as Iraqi forces prepare to liberate the last remaining Da'ish bastion in 🇮🇶

"We have never and will in no way leave our positions," said , a high-ranking official in

Replying to 
Confirmed: Peshmerga💩did flee many areas around Kirkuk, checkpoints, bases, roads, villages were all emptied out in just hours

Good morning! Though fighting between Iraqi and Kurdish forces broke out last night, KRG oil continues to ship out today from Turkey.


SDF military source told AFP - buses/trucks waiting outside Raqqa. Surrendered fighters to go further east in Deir Ezzor province.

Various accounts report Al Mayadin has been taken from ISIS.

: fully capture from v +

Al-Mayadeen is fully Liberated from , killing a very large number of terrorists: well done .

Civil Council/local Arab tribal elders work to minimize civilian casualties as SDF & prepare for major defeat in Raqqa

1 hour ago
ISIS controlled sections of Raqqa getting smaller !

1 hour ago
North : / / free Khirbat, Husayn +Al Jannā from v

Jafra Oil Field and Jafra CPF under Syrian Democratic Forces control Map:

US Politics....

Puerto Rico....

"El director ejecutivo [de AEE] tiene mi plena confianza para seguir ejecutando [su trabajo]" dice Gob Rosselló
Translated from Spanish by 
"[EEA] executive director has my full trust to continue running [his work]" says Gob Rosselló

Dir de AEE dice q 86% de los empleos q ha perdido la autoridad en los últimos años son "operaciones", (ej celadores de línea)
Translated from Spanish by 
Dir of EEE says q 86% of jobs that has lost authority in recent years are "operations", (warders line ej)

Rosselló dice que nuevo sistema de red eléctrica cambiaría ubicación principal de generación de energía al norte de la isla
Translated from Spanish by 
ROSSELLO says that new mains system would change main location of power generation in the North of the island

Dir de AEE dice q unidades de gas de Palo Seco están energizando planta de San Juan pero areas de Palo Seco están clausuradas
Translated from Spanish by 
Dir of EEE says that units of gas of Palo Seco are energizing San Juan plant but areas Palo Seco are closed

Rosselló indica que primer desembolso de FEMA fue principalmente para combustible. Partida de $128 irá a brigadas y materiales
Translated from Spanish by 
ROSSELLO indicates that first disbursement of FEMA was mainly for fuel. Starting from $128 will go to brigades and materials

De la Campa indica q FEMA ha dado $97 millones a la AEE y que se está procesando otro adelanto de $128 millones
Translated from Spanish by 
De la Campa indicates that FEMA has given $97 million to ESA and other advancement of $128 million that is processing

Power Authority dir can't say how many clients have electric service b/ they have problems matching info w/ their data bank

Dir de la AEE indica que llega 145 toneladas de materiales por día para arreglar el servicio eléctrico
Translated from Spanish by 
Dir of ESA indicates that 145 tonnes of materials reaches per day to fix the electric service

Corps of Engineer rep says 400 generators are on the way but some will be use to replace previously installed generators

Rosselló indica que servicio eléctrico a zona montañosa probablemente será difícil darle "servicio estable" para diciembre
Translated from Spanish by 
ROSSELLO indicates that electrical service to mountainous area will probably be difficult to servicing "stable" for December

Gob Rosselló indica que le solicitó a FEMA el desembolso para tener efectivo ($) para invertir en restablecer la red eléctrica
Translated from Spanish by 
GOB Rosselló indicates that it asked FEMA disbursement to have cash ($) to invest in restoring the power supply

Actualmente hay 294 brigadas de energía eléctrica. Se espera que en la próxima 3 semanas suban a 966 brigadas
Translated from Spanish by 
There are 294 brigades of electric power. It is expected that in the next 3 weeks go up to 966 brigades

Rosselló indica que meta del mes es q el servicio eléctrico esté a 30% y que a mediados de diciembre esté a 95%
Translated from Spanish by 
ROSSELLO indicates that goal of the month is that electricity is 30% and in mid-December is 95%

Rep del Cuerpo de Ingenieros dice que hay 400 generadores en camino pero algunos son para remplazar generadores q se afectaron
Translated from Spanish by 
Rep from the body of engineers says that there are 400 generators on road but some are to replace generators that affected

Dir. de AEE dice q Area Metro está aislada y los otros puntos en la isla energqzados, por 4 plantas, no han sufrido apagones
Translated from Spanish by 
Dir. of EEE says that Area Metro is isolated and other points on the island energqzados, 4 plants, have not suffered blackouts

Gobierno comienza presentación sobre status dei sistema eléctrico en especial central de Palo Seco
Translated from Spanish by 
Government begins presentation on status dei especially central electrical system of Palo Seco

Gov't gives presentation about the status of the electric system specially the Palo Seco Central

Gov assured the press that the water from the aqueduct system is clean and safe for consumption


Not a good look !

"UNESCO withdrawal harms American national security"

Nikki Haley was Trump’s Iran whisperer

Iranian president to Trump: We will not bend down before a dictator

"I’m generally skeptical of the ability to fix it. I hope I’m wrong"

Ex-Obama defense chief: Trump is "anxious to blow up agreements" but has no strategy after doing so

Mnuchin contradicts Trump: Repeal of estate tax will "disproportionately help rich people"

Trump’s frustration with Congress reaches a breaking point

Republicans worry they'll be blamed for ObamaCsre problems after Trump ended subsidies

Very proud of my Executive Order which will allow greatly expanded access and far lower costs for HealthCare. Millions of people benefit!

Health Insurance stocks, which have gone through the roof during the ObamaCare years, plunged yesterday after I ended their Dems windfall!

Sens. Corker & Cotton to introduce legislation that dovetails with Trump's move to decertify the Iran nuclear deal

Las Vegas....

The Mandalay Bay security guard who survived after being shot before Stephen Paddock suddenly disappears prior to scheduled presser.


Illegal migrants from Morocco being held in Tripoli begin hunger strike.

Pres. Council allocates 1 million dinars to solve water issues in Gharyan.

United Nations provides urgent assistance to families affected by clashes in Sabratha.

Source: Production at Shararah oilfield at 220,000 barrels per day.

Italian Embassy: has sent urgent humanitarian aid to manage the migratory flows in Sabratha & Zuwara.

UN envoy Salamé meets with representatives of 's minority groups from the Tebu, Tuareg and Amazigh people

Odds & Ends....

North Korea..

More North Korean threats today, warning the US not to start their military drills.

Replying to 
Ballistic missiles mounted on launchers being transported out of hangars near Pyongyang and in the North Pyongan Province.

North Korea 'preparing to launch another ballistic missile' in retaliation over US naval drill

comments on the coming American military drill in the Japan sea, branding it a ''reckless act of war maniacs"-Oct 14, 2017(KCNA)

Kim Jong Un's time in September was split between emphasizing resolve abroad, and party loyalty at home

Former defector 60-year-old Ju Ok Soon returns to DPRK and appears in video released by state media

New Zealand company Pacific Aerospace pleads guilty to North Korean sanctions breach

North Korean atlas shows Crimea as part of Russia

UAE joins countries in reducing diplomatic ties and issuing visa restrictions for North Koreans

China says September trade with N. Korea down nearly 40 percent

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