Saturday, June 3, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views.....June 3 , 2017.....BREAKING......Terror Attack At London Bridge & Stabbing Incident At Borough Bistro......Quick Hits For Saturday -1) Greece : EU Mulls Secret "Plan B" For Greece - International Monetary Fund To Be Sidelined , Debt Relief Curbed And Need For Austerity After 2019 Also Allegedly To Be Curbed ; Interview of ESM Chief Economist Rolf Strauch Pertaining To Greece ; Economic Data To Consider. 2) UK - General Election Updates and Uk Politics For Saturday. 3) Germany - Polling Data For Fall Election. 4) US Politics. : Comey Testimony Set For June 8th But Executive Privilege Question Still Dangles ; Swampland News ; Paris Accord Withdrawal Items ; Additional News Of Note. 5) Iraq Updates - State of Play In Long Running Battles To Root Out ISIS In Iraq. 6) Libya Updates - LNA and Local Forces Capture Jufrah Including Jufrah AB , Next Steps For LNA Could Be Bani Walid Or Sirte. 7) Odds & Ends : Markets Overview ; Kabul : Kabul Suicide Attack At A Funeral Of Protesters Over Kabul Violence And Security Failures ; Philippines Updates.

BREAKING....Saturday Evening Terror Attack...

What we know-6 people dead , three attackers dead & we also know London Ambulance transported 20 people to 6 different London Hospitals.

10. Chilling testimony from eyewitness who says he saw assailants stabbing a girl, while screaming, "This is for Allah."

1 hour ago
Our latest statement about the incident in . We have taken at least 20 patients to six hospitals across London.

Video of one "alleged" suspect apprehended by police....understand things are moving very fast tonight.

MORE: British Prime Minister May calls London incident a potential act of terrorism

Pls continue to avoid to allow the emergency services to deal with the ongoing incidents

Theresa May has said that the "terrible incident" in London is being treated as a "potential act of terrorism".

We have plans for every incident and keep these under constant review.

Marine 2 and Marine 3 are part of the response to the Bridge incident. Working with lifeboats to evacuate the public.

We have multiple resources responding to the incidents in London tonight. More information to come

Info available at this stage: from 2208hrs officers responded to reports of a vehicle in collision with pedestrians on Bridge. 1/3

Replying to 
Officers have then responded to reports of stabbings in . Armed officers responded and shots have been fired. 2/3

Replying to 
Officers are now responding to an incident in the area. 3/3

BREAKING: Downing Street: Prime Minister Theresa May will chair a meeting of the government emergency response committee Sunday

Not for the squeamish -- but this is real life. This is what has happened today. So , we have to keep it real.

ISIS claiming London Attacks already ???

Breaking news re incident in has been spreading on key Islamic State-linked Telegram channels (no claim has been issued by IS)

A very real possibility exists of a connection between recent burst of terror incidents and is the story.

More than one dead at London Bridge, police say, amid reports of stabbings in Borough and incident in Vauxhall

, where an active incident is occurring according to ,is where MI6, the CIA of Britain is located

A THIRD incident in London, says Met: - London Bridge - Borough Market - Vauxhall

Now there is police response to an incident in Vauxhall area...

Images coming from near of members of the public are being escorted by police from area with their hands on their heads.

Police making people walk away from London Bridge area with their hands on their heads. This means they're still looking for attackers.

Borough Bistro stabbing - eyewitness video of police entering Bistro...

Just come out of Borough Bistro where attack happen - saw man wielding knife and people on the floor in blood. In total shock

Replying to 
Police on scene now. I saw it just when it happened but we were sent to the basement as safety mesuare. Staff amazing in keeping us safe

Please follow for updates. The emergency services are dealing with the incident at London Bridge.

incident: Reports bomb disposal unit has arrived at London Bridge as injured being given CPR

BBC reporter Holly Jones said the van was driven by a male driver and was "probably travelling at about 50 miles an hour".

Several London tube stations closed, The Shard skyscraper on lockdown following London Bridge incident. Scary on a warm Saturday night

VERY IMPORTANT.....driver of van involved in incident has not been apprehended yet. Be very vigilant if in the area.....

This was scene as we left London Bridge.

It seemed south side of London Bridge epicentre of what seems a terrorist attack. We have been escorted by police from bridge.

Terror attack in London.Seems to have very recently occurred-London Bridge location. Man crashed into numerous people-then stabbing attack.

Something big going down on London Bridge. View from work.

Passerby says 15-20 people have been run over. "Westminster bridge all over again". Another says 7 or 8.

Replying to 
Black can driver shouts that there has been "terrorist attack". Have seen two casualties - one on pavement, one edge of road.


Chief Economist Rolf in interview with To Vima (Greece)

: ESM outlined options for medium-term measures for Greece, decision lies with member states after program ends in August 2018

: I believe there is substantive goodwill to come to a consensus on Greece at June 15 Eurogroup

: Greece’s best contribution to Eurogroup discussions is to fully implement the prior actions

: ESM will be ready to make a disbursement if an agreement is reached at Eurogroup

: We estimated that short-term debt measures will reduce Greek gross financing needs by around 5 pp and debt-to-GDP by 20 pp

: ESM outlined options for medium-term measures for Greece, decision lies with member states after program ends in August 2018

: The favourable ESM terms of lending are a sign of European solidarity

: Evidence from other countries shows that 3.5% primary surplus can be maintained for some years

: It is up to to reap the benefits of reforms in terms of higher growth & sustaining sound public finances

gg arrears' stock up by €380 mln year to date, Apr figure below €5 bln mark for first time since Jan.

SA household consumption +0.4% QoQ for 4th straight quarter to €32.54 bln in Q1, highest reading since Q2 2012.

deposit interest rates largely unchanged in April, average loan rate increases

Q1 GDP provides a positive surprise with 0.4 pct quarterly growth

Q1 real GDP +0.4% QoQ and YoY, nominal GDP +0.4% QoQ and +0.9% YoY.

Q1 GDP +0.4% YoY Final consumption +1.7% Gross capital formation +13.6% Gross fxed cap formation +11.2% Exports +4.8% Imports +10.9%

Q1 GDP +0.4% QoQ Final consumption +0.4% Gross capital formation +48.3% Gross fixed cap formation -0.4% Exports -2.3% Imports +4.5%


Saturday morning catch up...

Very interesting thread from Callimachi & Schmitt - Manchester bomber tied to key ISIS unit.

I wrote this yest: May's generals believe momentum has swung back. 6 & 12 point leads today. Blip or start of turn?

One view on recent polling....

Finally tally of Saturday polls: Survation (1pt Tory lead) YouGov (4pts) Opinium (6pts) ORB (9pts) ICM (11pts) ComRes (12pts)

A summary of today's UK polls: Tory 47%, Labour 35%: ComRes Tory 43%, Labour 37%: Opinium Tory 40%, Labour 39%: Survation good luck

U.K. Conservatives at 45%, Labour at 36%: Telegraph/ORB Poll

1 hour ago
CON lead still 12%with ComRes

CORRECTION CON lead down to just 6 in latest Opinium poll for Observer Con 43 (-2) Lab 37 (+2) LD 6 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc)

UK: prognosis: CON-ECR: 359 (-8) LAB-S&D: 220 (+12) SNP-G/EFA: 42 (-4) LDEM-ALDE: 7 (+1) PC-G/EFA: 2 UKIP-EFDD: 1

UK, YouGov projection: CON-ECR: 308 (-5) LAB-S&D: 261 (+4) SNP: 47 (-1) LDEM-ALDE: 10 PC-G/EFA: 2 Green-G/EFA: 1

UK, Lord Ashcroft prognosis: CON-ECR: 355 (-41) LAB-S&D: 224 (+44) SNP-G/EFA: 46 (-1) LDEM-ALDE: 5 (-1) PC-G/EFA: 1 (-1)

UK, prognosis: CON-ECR: 354 (-5) LAB-S&D: 214 (+5) SNP-G/EFA: 54 LDEM-ALDE: 7

UK, prognosis: CON-ECR: 360 LAB-S&D: 210 SNP-G/EFA: 48 LDEM-ALDE: 9 PC-G/EFA: 3 Green-G/EFA: 1

File under time will tell...

Boris Johnson to keep Foreign Secretary position after General Election..

Conservatives rule out income tax rise for high earners:

Rift deepens between Diane Abbott and Corbyn’s other allies over media appearances:

1 hour ago
Jeremy Corbyn refuses to say he would press the nuclear button if PM:

WATCH Theresa May says: I had the balls to call an election:

Nicola Sturgeon urged to investigate ‘cash for votes’ SNP scandal:

- Ariana Grande's music label will donate $ 500,000 to victims of suicide bombing.

- Latest update on ongoing investigation. 17 arrested, 11 still in custody.

UK, Britain Elects projection: CON-ECR: 362 (+32) LAB-S&D: 206 (-26) SNP-G/EFA: 47 (-9) LDEM-ALDE: 11 (+3) PC-G/EFA: 4 (+1) Green-G/EFA: 1

UK: prognosis: CON-ECR: 367 (-12) LAB-S&D: 208 (+13) SNP-G/EFA: 46 LDEM-ALDE: 6 (-1) PC-G/EFA: 2 UKIP-EFDD: 1

UK: prognosis: CON-ECR: 362 (-6) LAB-S&D: 213 (+5) SNP-G/EFA: 50 LDEM-ALDE: 3 PC-G/EFA: 3 Greens-G/EFA: 1

UK, YouGov projection: CON-ECR: 313 (-4) LAB-S&D: 257 (+3) SNP: 48 (+1) LDEM-ALDE: 10 (+1) PC-G/EFA: 2 (-1) Green-G/EFA: 1


Germany, YouGov poll: Lowest / No degree CDU/CSU-EPP: 43% SPD-S&D: 23% AfD-ENF: 13% LINKE-LEFT: 8% FDP-ALDE: 7% GRÜNE-G/EFA: 4%

Germany, YouGov poll: CDU/CSU-EPP: 37% SPD-S&D: 23% ↓ LINKE-LEFT: 10% ↑ FDP-ALDE: 9% AfD-ENF: 9% GRÜNE-G/EFA: 8% ↑

Germany, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll: CDU/CSU-EPP: 39% ↑ SPD-S&D: 25% ↓ LINKE-LEFT: 9% AfD-ENF: 8% ↑ FDP-ALDE: 8% GRÜNE-G/EFA: 7%

US Politics....

Sorry , would not pick this location for a reception. Even if the only venue in the fricking City......

Thought this would be the case , sanity prevailed.

Democrats warn Trump against trying to block Comey's testimony

A hacker group calling itself “GlobalLeaks” has begun distributing hacked emails stolen U.A.E. ambassador

Trump to hit the road for a jobs-focused reset in tough week

Comey "angry" that Sessions and Justice Department blindsided him with firing: report

Trump's budget chief apologizes to CBO analyst

White House won't rule out blocking Comey's public testimony

Defense chief: Recent US decisions "does not mean we are turning our back" on the world

Government ethics office will release dozens more Trump ethics waivers

1 hour ago
Trump on Friday made official what Bloomberg reported in early March: he's nominating Richard V. Spencer to be Navy secretary.

“Pressure” is not obstruction of justice

The New York Times fires its public editor for resisting the Resistance

Trump’s decision on the Paris agreement has already had consequences on his alliances with business and tech leaders


"Allegedly" white phosphorus being used by Coalition aircraft in West Mosul - note the structure on fire.

The resilience of the people is unbelievable, the ice cream parlor that was hit with a car bomb in 3 days ago has reopened.

A detailed map of the current situation in west , are going to control miles of the - borderline in a few days.

map update. Green= completely liberated. Orange= frontline clashes. White= control.


Tripoli LIA: Our response to the so-called "Steering Committee"

Macron Admin is conducting complete review of approach to situation in Libya , seeks to coordinate with various parties including Egypt.

Source: LNA entered Sawknah without any clashes.

Haftar: Appreciate the role of the people of Jufrah in liberating the region.

- since loss of Jufrah, rumors of clashes in between and locals preventing entrance to the city; movement to Bani Walid

Replying to 
- more images coming out confirming that LNA is in control of Airbase

1 hour ago
- Photo purportedly showing fighters of LNA 21st inf. bn. on a MiG-25 after capturing Jufrah Airbase

1 hour ago
pt Pic showing Mohammed Bin Nail and some other well known leaders of Libyan National Army in Jufrah Airbase. Old MiGs-25 are still there.

1 hour ago

A combination of good timing, local outreach & planning led to LNA's quick victory in . Can the LNA make it sustainable?

- LNA captures in less than 48 hours of mobilizing forces towards the area. Is this sustainable? Where next for BDB?

No reaction from to military developments in . Area was under Misratan forces control before allowing BDB in.

Map showing areas now taken by . The LNA now has full control of region after fierce clashes with

For 1 year, BDB has used Jufra as a base to launch incursions east & south. That’s why ’s Haftar took it—& will use it for next step.

Odds & Ends....

Market Overview....

Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Liquidity Trade D. Noland-Liquidity Trade

Bitcoin Value Surpasses US$2500 Again as Chinese Exchanges Resume Withdrawals via →

Shock Waves Spread from Spain’s New Banking Crisis

Michael Kors announced it would be closing over 100 locations. Radio Shack closed 1,000 Franchisor Owned Stores across America.

’s Banco Popular studying steps to bolster weakened liquidity as default probability even of sen bonds jumps.

We've never had it so good: Global equities now worth $74.7trn, highest value in history. Equals to ~93% of world GDP.

Looks as if Trump reflation trade just fake news. Wall St banks have lost 4% this week, have erased nearly all post-election outperformance.

Global stocks gained $617bn in mkt cap this week to fresh high of $74.7trn, boosted by rise in BIG TECH as narrative takes hold.

Kabul Suicide Attack At A Funeral Of Protesters Over Kabul Violence And Security Failures...

- CEO says an investigation must be carried out into today's blast to find out how this attack could happen

- CEO Abdullah says killing of civilians at cemetery and at Friday's rally will be investigated. He condemned both incidents

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- Abdullah, who was present at the time, says suicide bombers were among the mourners when they detonated their explosives

- CEO Abdullah Abdullah confirms in a televised address that 3 suicide bombers detonated explosives at a burial service on Saturday

- TOLOnews journalist in the Zanbaq square area says shooting has stopped but gunfire can be heard near Emergency Hospital

- Gunfire reported from areas close to Emergency Hospital in .

: At Least 87 Wounded In Cemetery Blast, Up To 20 Dead: Sources

Once again within days, staff at Emergency Hospital in downtown are treating victims of a suicide attack, 16 so far today

1 hour ago
BREAKING: At least 19 killed in attack on funeral for Kabul protester who demanded more security in Afghanistan

: 3 back-to-back explosions ripped through the burial service of a Senator’s son on Saturday


Replying to 
Duterte: Resorts World Manila incident not work of ISIS | LIVE:

(Global News): attack in casino leaves at least 38 dead : ISIS has claimed..

Per usual, a great report from . Solid background for IS activity in Southeast Asia

More turmoil in Philippines raises concerns among local Filipinos but siege in Manila not necessarily ISIS

AFP calls Marawi attackers 'Maute-ISIS' LIVE — CNN Philippines (cnnphilippines) June 3, …

EL Ethos UT: Philippines rejects repeated ISIS claim over Manil...

ISIS claims Philippines casino attack, but doesn’t give evidence

Grab Bag....

UAE- Qatar Public feud takes on new dimension as UAE Ambassador has explosive emails leaked...

India will go ‘above and beyond’ Paris Accord, Modi tells Macron

ISIS Calls on Supporters in Europe to Kill Christians in Ramadan

Syrian Army Makes Major Advance against ISIS in Aleppo Province ,

Moroccans Hold Mass Rally Demand Release of Protest Leader

US Airstrikes Kill 43 Civilians in Syria’s Raqqa

37 injured as Explosion Hits Hypermarket in Shiraz, Iran (+video)

UN Rights Chief Urges Probe of Protestor Deaths in Bahrain

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