Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views.....May 2 , 2017......Quick Hits For Tuesday -1) Markets : Asia Calendar For Wednesday , Japan Closed For Its Golden Week Holiday , Market Moving News & Data As It Develops ; US Stock Indexes Up Modestly Today , Oil Falls Sharply ( Although Private Oil Inventory Data Showing Larger Than Expected Crude Draw Has given a Pop In Price After Regular Trading & May Buoy US Oil Wednesday ) , Spot Gold Treaded Water Day , US Treasuries Notable Drop In Yields. 2) US Political Round Up : Healthcare Bill Still Doesn't Have Votes In House ; Rundown Of Trump-Putin Call Today ; " Swampland " News. 3) Europe In Focus : News From Germany To Consider ; UK-EU Talks - EU Seems To Be Going Out Of Its Way To Doom Talks From The Start ; French Election News & Terror Plot Foiled In France Today ; Italian News Including Updates On Troubled Alitalia ; Greece Reaches Deal ( For The Most Part ) With EG & IMF Regarding Second Review. 4) Odds & Ends To Consider !



Economic data due from Asia today (Japan on holiday)

Good morning from Berlin! Asia stocks ride global momentum BUT poor Apple results & upcoming Fed meeting pour some water into the risk wine.

’s 1y interest-rate swaps keep rising as Beijing tries to deleverage the economy. (via BBG)

China Sold CNY 36Bln Of 10-Year Govt Bonds At An Average Yield Of 3.52% BTC 2.20

China Sold CNY 36Bln Of 1-Year Govt Bonds At An Average Yield Of 3.32% BTC 1.47

PBoC To Inject CNY 170 Bln Via 7 Day Reverse Repos CNY 20 Bln Via 14 Day Reverse Repos CNY 10 Bln Via 28 Day Reverse Repos

PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.8892 (prev fix 6.8946 prev close 6.8965)

PBoC Reverse Repo Rates: -7 Day: 2.45% -14 Day: 2.6% -28 Day: 2.75%

1 hour ago
Australia - Services PMI for April: 53.0 (prior 51.7)

New Zealand Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) Q1: 0.3% (exp 0.7%; prev -0.3%)

New Zealand Pvt Wages Ex-Overtime (QoQ) Q1: 0.4% (exp 0.4%; prev 0.4%) - Pvt Wages Inc-Overtime (QoQ) Q1: 0.4% (exp 0.5%; prev 0.4%)

New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q1: 4.9% (exp 5.1%; prev 5.2%) - Participation Rate Q1: 70.6% (exp 70.5%; prev 70.5%)

PBOC To Avoid Extreme Volatility In Liquidity – Sec Journal


US stocks end the day little changed at the close.

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Auto sales not so great. Oil moves lower.

Private oil inventory data shows bigger than expected draw in crude stocks

CRUDE -4.158mb GASOLINE -1.93mb DISTILLATES -0.436mb CUSHING -0.215mb

Russian govmt official says country favours extending cut deal by 6 months

WTI Futures Settle At $47.66/Bbl, Down $1.18

US Politics.....

Sally Yates to testify she forcefully warned White House about Flynn, contradicting WH claim: report

1 hour ago
NEW: GOP healthcare bill faces major obstacle over pre-existing conditions provision

1 hour ago
Replying to 
When asked by , the White House acknowledged the discussion of a possible Trump-Putin mtg. at the upcoming G20 summit.

1 hour ago
Replying to 
Kremlin notes on the call mentioned discussion of a possible in-person mtg. between Pres. Trump and Pres. Putin; White House notes did not.

JUST IN: White House: North Korea, Syria, terrorism among issues discussed in phone call today between Pres. Trump and Pres. Putin.

1 hour ago
Puerto Rico 2014 general obligation bondholders file suit in New York State Court

Breaking: Jim DeMint out at Heritage Foundation

Replying to 
White House readout leaves out Kremlin revelation that both leaders talked about meeting in July

House GOP still short on votes to pass HC Bill...

BILLY LONG: "The MacArthur amendment strips away any guarantee that pre-existing conditions would be covered and affordable."

Kushner failed to disclose financial ties to Goldman Sachs, George Soros: report

Top GOP chairman: "We're not going to do a Russia sanctions bill"

Not sure that a Gov't Shutdown is the remedy the Doctor would order , but morning thoughts from POTUS.

South Koreans baffled by Trump's praise for North Korean dictator:



Germany Questions Swiss Ambassador Over Espionage Allegations

Leaders interject themselves in foreign elections all of the time.

Germany must lift border controls, EU executive says via


EU doing everything possible to scupper Talks with UK , it would appear. First leak of Juncker dinner meeting with May. Now this travesty.

Replying to 
Juncker seems to want the Brexit talks to fail. My column in tomorrow.

1 hour ago
"Brexit Fee" keeps getting larger and larger..

I suspect that he just may learn the hard way that PM May can be a " bloody difficult woman."


French anti-terror police seize heavy weapons and arrest five in raids: reports

Macron team denies to Bloomberg he plans to walk out of the TV debate in the middle of it

DIRECT "Macron menace: s'il sert de punching-ball à Marine Le Pen, il quittera le plateau au bout d'une demi-heure" dit
Translated from French by 
DIRECT "threatens Macron: if he's a punching bag for Marine Le Pen, he will leave the Board at the end of half an hour" says

Two-thirds of French far-left supporters to abstain in presidential vote: party

Mélenchon's movement says 34% of nearly 250,000 sympathisers consulted online will vote for Macron - with2/3 for abstention/invalid ballot

Replying to 
Pollsters also say that up to 15% of his 1st-rnd voters will go for Le Pen but this choice "was not offered as an option" in consultation...


Italian police bust neo-Nazi group who targeted foreigners

Recent Alitalia + Italy's definitely-not-nationalisation/state aid/it's a 'BRIDGE LOAN' FFS headlines...


Alitalia senior unsecured bond -31 to 15 cents today. 6 months ago this lavatory paper traded at par.



Avg 9% cuts to pensions in 2019 & lowering tax-free threshold by €3,000 in 2020 loom large over tax reductions & spending increases

Doesn't seem that Schauble believes all technical issues are resolved between Greece , EG and IMF.

IMF notes even after Bailout Deal , debt relief still needed for Greece.

After French elections

A necessary, balanced and viable deal which will reinforce the economy's stability acc to 's gov spox


Greek Spokesman Tzanakopoulos: Sought Medium Term Debit Relief Agreement Will Enable IMF To Conclude Debt Sustainability Analysis

Odds & Ends...


Tense call between Tillerson and Cavusoglu - as rumors heat up that Cavusoglu is soon to be replaced....

Replying to 
LIVE — Erdoğan: Turkey's ultimate goal is to act together with the US and the coalition to clear Daesh terrorists from Raqqa

LIVE — Erdoğan: Turkey will say goodbye to EU if it does not open remaining accession chapters

Replying to 
Turkish President Erdogan says EU has no options but to open new chapters on accession, "Goodbye if you don't"

Turkish President Erdogan says Turkey has nothing to discuss with unless it keeps promises, open new chapters. (Reuters)


While Haftar and Serraj meet in Abu Dhabi , this meeting is also occurring in Libya.

Let's see what comes from this...

Oil Production at 760,000 bpd for 1st time since 2014. Hafter &Serraj meet in UAE. Will reach stability both economic &security-wise?

14 tank trucks intercepted en route to Tunisian with smuggled fuel

The Quartet in is shaping. I have been calling for it as the logical next step. Agelah/Swihili and now Sarraj/Hafter. Good News

Serraj and Haftar announce new deal on elections.

For a first meeting , encouraging progress made. Follow up meeting set with Sisi to participate !