Saturday, April 1, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views......April 1 , 2017 ...... Quicks Hits On April Fool's Day 1) : Market Round Up For Quarter One : Doug Noland Weekly Missive Focuses On "Q-1 " 2017 & "Sure Bets That Weren't " ; Global Stocks Gain 4.8 Trillion USD In Q-1 , Global Bonds Gain 1.5 Trillion USD In Q-1 , Q-1 Stars & Slackers ( H/T Holger Zschaepitz ) ; Additional News Of Note. 2) Europe In Focus : UK / Brexit : Spain Plays Games Regarding Gibraltar , EU Plays Games Regarding Brexit ; France - While Much attention Rightfully Place on Macron / Le Pen And Fillon - Keep Your Eyes On Dark Horse Melenchon Who Has Been Making Up Ground On The Leaders ; Greece In Focus : Eurogroup Pours Cold Water On April 7th Deal , IMF Discusses State Of Play On Staff Level Agreement ( Work In Progress , Prognosis Uncertain ) ; Political Corruption Updates , Domestic & International Odds & Ends. 3) Libya News Of Note For Saturday


April Fool's Day News.....



The White House Now Investigated for Ties to Greece -





1 hour ago
April Fools: George Takei jokes he’s running for Congress






Markets......





Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Q1: Sure Bets That Weren’t






Global bonds have gained $1.5trn in value in Q1, paring Q42016 losses of $3.2trn as investors bet on goldilocks scenario w/ dovish CenBanks.







Global stocks have gained $4.8trn in mkt cap in Q1, equal to GDP of Japan, most since 2012 on corp earning bounce & glob growth acceleration







India had a fantastic Q1. With valuations like these, are markets getting this one right? Our roundtable discussion







Emerging Markets best asset class in Q1'17 followed by EU stocks, , EM debt. BUT debt, Oil & broader commodities underperformed.








Asian markets officially shut for Q1. Confirmed.








Links from Friday Afternoon....




[Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Meander on Last Day of Stellar Quarter: Markets Wrap

[Reuters] Oil retreats, set to become worst-performing asset in first quarter

[Reuters] Fed signals it could promptly start shedding bonds from portfolio this year

[Bloomberg] Venezuela Crisis Deepens, Bonds Sink as Maduro Ally Pushes Back

[Reuters] Top Venezuela official breaks with government, protests escalate

[CNBC] The looming budget disaster, in four charts

[Forbes] Proof That Mr. Market Is Losing His Mind

[CNBC] From a $200,000 Aston Martin sports car to $1,000 an hour escorts, Wall Street spending is up

[NYT] Caution Signals Are Blinking for the Trump Bull Market

[FT] ‘It ain’t a normal cycle’, BAML reminds investors





Europe.....




UK......






Foreign direct investment in the UK rose sharply in the final quarter 2016 to £110 billion, the highest level since 2014





Current account deficit fell from 5.3% to 2.4% GDP, lowest since 2012; biggest quarterly decline since records began in 1955.




UK current account deficit improved by largest amount on record -- deficit fell to £12 billion in Q4 2016 v £25.7 billion in Q3






Fate of Gibraltar hangs in balance amid Brexit row with Spain






FULL statement from government of Gibraltar in response to Spain's new EU Brexit veto (pdf):









Significant that Spain has succeeded in getting Gibraltar on the draft guidelines: Spain has veto on exit deal applying to Gibraltar






to bill every citizen €500 if May fails to pay divorce settlement








So it's "tough" when it's the EU and "threats" when it's the UK.








Weekend long read: Legal and procedural issues in the UK’s withdrawal from the EU






France.....






Macron meets member of Fillon’s party, sets tongues wagging







French centrist candidate Macron meets Sarkozy ally Estrosi






The far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon is shaking up the already turbulent French presidential campaign






France's Macron preaches hope to gritty suburbs






What happened today in France's presidential election















From ‘fake jobs’ to Russia 'fantasies', Fillon talks Putin







Fillon insults Macron with Hollande slur as dirty campaign signals French win for Le Pen







Le Pen says she still needs campaign funds after approaching lenders in 7 countries
















This is unemployment in France since 1995. Four more charts to explain France's election here -->




This is how Le Pen's party's vote share has risen since 2002 Four more charts to explain France's election here -->








France: Odoxa poll shows significant moves to the far-left. (GUE/NGL) (*) gain.










Isn't it now time for Hamon to drop out & endorse Mélenchon? Get behind the one with a chance, etc.—the way the left is always told to?









THE DEBATE - Party Over? French Socialists split ahead of presidential election (part 1)






Greece...




The International Migration Organization & Greece to double incentive to rejected asylum seekers to decline appeals-from 500 to 1,000 euros.








PASOK issues warning after latest firebombing at HQ









ND leads SYRIZA by more than 13 points in new poll









1 hour ago
Stylida Municipality to hold referendum over refugees accommodation center:






Eurogroup President Says No Expectations for Agreement by April 7







Civil Servants, Policeman, Lawyer Among 25 Arrested in Sham Marriage Scheme






Thirteen Indicted for Defense Contracts Signed when Papantoniou was Minister







Closed Reception Centers will Reinforce Asylum Procedures, Says Migration Policy Min Mouzalas







IMF:Discussions continue but differences remain, and it is too early to speculate about the prospect for reaching a staff-level agreement









Marginal drop in time deposit rate, sharp decline in corporate lending rates in Feb








FinMin sources say rumours of row between Tsakalotos & Tsipras are as well-grounded as claim marriage is main reason for divorce








Replying to 
FinMin sources add minister relieved that although man is only intelligent being in universe, there's not an infinite no. of fools on earth








retail sales rebound 1.4 pct in Jan after brief fall in Dec







No return of institutions to Athens yet as differences persist







records net profits of 73 mln in Q4, turns profitable for whole year







Alpha Bank reports net profits of 20 mln in Q4, leading 2016 earnings to 42 mln




Italy....





Graffiti vandals damage Kentridge Rome frieze









Vespa wars: Italy fears sting of Trump trade barriers










Rare happy ending in Mediterranean migrant drama










La La Land isn't just a movie--it's also & Gov of : Gen. Serra today said militias must surrender weapons & disappear 😂









Wonder why flows of smuggled illegal via to get worse with IOM? IOM Libya: "We don't believe in stopping migration"





Libya.....






EU extends sanctions on Agilah Saleh, Nuri Abu Sahmain and Khalifa Al-Ghweil








Interesting piece written by Wolfgang Pusztai *The Failed Serraj Experiment of Libya*





IOM expects to fly up to 10000 migrants out of Libya in 2017 - Citizen TV (press release)







Meanwhile in central region, alleged pictures published on FB regarding a LNA unit managing a checkpoint last night at 20km from Sirte.








GNA arrived to Tripoli a year ago when USD exchange rate was 2.70. Today it's 7.2! Well done!









1- the Prez Council remains deeply divided, not representative & lacks real mandate & legitimacy.









2- the presidential council made all its decisions in clear violation of the very LPA that brought it into existence.








3- The only legitimacy that the Presidential Council has is its international legitimacy & recognition from foreign governments.








4- not to forget that in less nine months the the presidential council & LPA will expire. Unless some say we didn't start yet?







5- If we didn't start yet, then that is an acknowledgement that the Presidential Council & all its decisions have been illegal.






Libya map: Operations are resuming at Ras Lanuf after two weeks of suspension and Oil Crescent back to "normal" after hostilities