Sunday, April 30, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views .....April 30 , 2017.....Quick Hits For Sunday -1) French Election Run-Off Updates . 2) Italy Democratic Party Primary Today , Renzi Expected To Win By A Wide Margin. 3) Polling Data For Germany & UK. 4) Greece Updates For Sunday - Economy , Creditors , Local Politics , & More. 5) UK- EU Talks - Items To Consider For Sunday . 6) US Politics For Early Sunday Morning - Updated As the Day Goes By. 7) Odds & Ends - North Korea , Libya , Syria , Iraq And China PMI Data In Focus.


Le Pen an "outie" , but trying to be coy , so as not to scare off voters...

How will Marine Le Pen tweak her media strategy? by

Can Macron address economic woes of France ?

French voters sceptical Macron, Le Pen have answers on unemployment, security -

French business relishes the prospect of President Macron

Mélenchon voters make slight shift toward Le Pen ( from 11% to 19% ) , but most voting will go for Macron ( 40%.)

Replying to   and 
41% of voters will abstain in wake of movement, while only 40% will vote for .

France: All you need to know about Le Pen and Macron

Why Macron's bid to haul out of its malaise will be harder than he thinks as France hasn't fiscal leeway.

Mélenchon joue avec le feu! En 4 jours, le taux d'abstention des électeurs Insoumis passe de 23 à 45% pour le second tour
Translated from French by 
Mélenchon plays with fire! In 4 days, the rate of abstention of voters rebel goes from 23 to 45% for the second round

Macron more dangerous than Le Pen ? So says Guaino Henri .....

One week to go .....

Polish workers unfazed by French campaign fury over outsourcing

Champs Elysees attacker's father 'threatens' French police

The French election is Facebook’s fake-news litmus test

Replying to   and 
State of emergency: Marine Le Pen supports the banning of all protests. FYI, Mélenchon supporters

Emmanuel Macron hunts for votes in rural France where his far-right opponent Marine Le Pen is making inroads

France: Presidential election (run-off), Odoxa poll: Macron (EM-*): 59% (-4) Le Pen (FN-ENF): 41% (+4)


Renzi had about 72% of the vote , Justice Minister Andrea Orlando had 19% & Michele Emiliano- governor of Puglia region, had about 9%.

Renzi expected to beat his two rivals, Justice Minister Andrea Orlando and Michele Emiliano, Governor of the southern region of Puglia.

Primarie PD, è il giorno del voto per eleggere il nuovo Segretario, l'incertezza su affluenza
Translated from Italian by 
Primary PD, is the day of the vote to elect a new Secretary, the uncertainty about turnout

Democratic primaries today in Italy.Real question is not winner (former PM Renzi) but turnout.Was 3mln in 2013,1 mln expected today

🇮🇹Today chooses by open primaries its new national leader

Additional Polling Data Of Note....

UK, ORB poll: CON-ECR: 45% ↑ LAB-S&D: 30% ↓ LDEM-ALDE: 10% ↑ UKIP-EFDD: 8% ↓

UK, Opinium poll: CON-ECR: 47% ↑ LAB-S&D: 30% ↑ LDEM-ALDE: 8% ↓ UKIP-EFDD: 7% ↓

UK, YouGov poll: CON-ECR: 44% ↓ LAB-S&D: 31% ↑ LDEM-ALDE: 11% ↑ UKIP-EFDD: 6% ↓ Greens-G/EFA: 2% ↓

Germany, Civey poll: CDU/CSU-EPP: 36% SPD-S&D: 29% ↓ AfD-ENF: 9% LINKE-LEFT: 9% GRÜNE-G/EFA: 7% FDP-ALDE: 6%

Germany, Emnid poll: CDU/CDU-EPP: 36% SPD-S&D: 29% ↓ AfD-ENF: 9% LINKE-LEFT: 9% GRÜNE-GREEN: 7% ↑ FDP-ALDE: 6% ↑

A new poll suggests Martin Schulz’s SPD party is losing traction 2 weeks before elections in Germany


Varoufakis new book: Tsipras was overwhelmed, Macron offered deal, Schaeuble blocked any…

Large fire on Zakynthos abates

+6% last week +6.9% during Apr +10.6% year to date banks +16.6%, +18.8% and +6% respectively.

Athens upbeat that deal will be wrapped up soon

Meetings of government with institutions' mission chiefs on Sat 19.00 Privatisations 20.00 Tax 21.00 Product markets

Gen Sec of Fiscal Policy tells a large part of 2016 fiscal over-performance is recurring (via ).

Minister pushing for backdoor hirings in public sector

deposit flow Mar: +278 mln Jan-Mar: -2 bln Dec-Mar: +791 mln funding Mar: -775 mln Jan-Mar: -1.29 bln

UK- EU Talks....

PM May on the campaign trail in Scotland !

Next steps in the EU side's Brexit negotiations. Agenda for the EU27 delegates to the EU meeting on Wednesday 3rd. Some thoughts. 1/x

. expects divorce talks to be tough; EU alarmed at Brexit 'illusions':

EU Commission sources think more than 50% chance of failure to reach deal - following May-Juncker meeting

1 hour ago

Japan's Abe warns of 'confusion' without UK/EU Brexit deal

: Barnier [EU's chief negotiator] thinks 1st phase of negotiations [the withdrawal] can be concluded by the fall

No Brexit bill sum was presented at says

EU 27 leaders agree Brexit negotiation guidelines in rapid time

US Politics....

Congressional negotiators alleged to have reached a deal to fund the Gov't through September.

More reports being floated of deal to fund Gov't through September - this tweet from Washington Post.

Trump: I won't touch "the concept of Medicare"

Let's wait and see what actually in the House Bill.....

Trump blasts "dead" ObamaCare: New healthcare plan "on its way"

NEW: Dem lawmakers, not trusting Trump to make key ObamaCare payments, seek a permanent fix

Trump: Dems have become the "party of obstruction"

Dem lawmakers blast Trump's climate change policies during Climate March

NSA McMaster on THAAD system / S. Korea: "What I told our South Korean counterpart is, until any re-negotiation, that the deal is in place."

South Korea says McMaster has reaffirmed that U.S. will pay THAAD costs:

1 hour ago
Trump national security adviser to South Korea: US will pay for missile defense system

Trump invites Philippines president Duterte to White House

Will political normality return in 2017?

Face the Nation's is aboard Air Force One with Trump tonight. Part of interview to air 10:30ET Sunday, part 7-9a Monday.

Trump: Trade concessions w China may prevent "massive warfare with millions, potentially millions of people being killed."

Trump on why N Korea's missile tests keep fizzling: "Perhaps they're just not very good missiles. But eventually, he'll have good missiles."

TRUMP: If he does a nuclear test, I will not be happy. DICKERSON: Not happy mean military action? TRUMP: I don't know. I mean, we'll see.

DICKERSON: They're going to want, in Congress, to make up on the spending side, to change Medicare. TRUMP: I'm not going to touch it.

DICKERSON: Mr. President say there's a guarantee of pre-existing conditions (in new bill). TRUMP: We actually have a clause that guarantees.

"I didn't say, Don't test a missile. He's going to have to do what he has to do," Trump on Kim Jong Un, in partial transcript

Despite complications, Republicans are quick to point out their wins in the first 100 days of the Trump era

Although voters are divided about Trump, they remain optimistic about the economic conditions of the country

Expect drama as Congress gives itself a week to avert government shutdown

Has Trump been delivering the results Americans have been looking for?

Odds & Ends.....

Chinese PMI Data ( Official ) ....

Both China Apr PMI 51.2 and non-mfg PMI 54.0 are worse than expected. The internals are even worse. Employment fell to 49.2 ...

China Manufacturing PMI (April): 51.2 (expected 51.7)

China Services PMI (April): 54.0 (prior was 55.1)

North Korea......

Trump national security adviser: Trump will resolve North Korea issue "one way or another"

French ship in Japan for naval drill as N.Korea tensions rise

Japan's Abe says latest N.Korea missile launch was a flagrant violation of UN decisions


New head of eastern government’s foreign media authority appointed in fresh shakeup -

A disturbing anecdotal explaining how some ISIS fighters may have "melted away" from Sirte & Benghazi to Misrata and then to Turkey.

oil production rebounds as Sharara (largest oil field) and El Feel (dependent on Sharara for power) restart

Syria & Iraq.....

New: In biggest single admission of casualties yet, Coalition lifts estimate of civilians killed in Iraq/Syria to 352 (up 50% on last month)

Replying to 
2) Coalition reports 45 new civilian deaths from 9 incidents in Iraq & Syria between Nov 2016 and March 2017 - though not Al Jadida event

Looks like reports of Jaish al-Islam wiping out HTS in E Ghouta have turned out to have a basis in fact.....

Iran considering deploying ground forces to counter US intervention in Syria: reports

Turkey's Erdogan vows to continue airstrikes against in Northern Syria and

In Syria-airstrikes near Dayr Az Zawr , near Raqqah & near Tabqah. In Iraq - airstrikes near Al Qaim , Habbaniyah , Mosul , Rajah & Tal Afar

Army 9th Division made new gains in west & is getting closer to Counter Terrorism axis to circle the rest of the districts.

Iraqi commander vows to complete capture of Mosul in May

A few minutes ago, ISIL executed 6 people while trying to flee from Rifa'i district. 5 children were taken by ISIL.

US servicemember killed outside Mosul today, announces.

Exclusive: shows progress of forces in Battle

Additional Items Of Note....

Saeed Karimian of GEM TV & along with a Kuwaiti business partner shot dead by unidentified assailants in Istanbul.

Germany's Merkel begins Gulf trip with stop in Saudi Arabia