Saturday, April 29, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views.......April 29 , 2017......Quick Hits For Saturday -1) Global Market Overview - April 2017 , Q-1 2017 , Trump Effect On US Stock Markets & Additional News/ Data To Consider ; 2) US Politics For Saturday Morning : First 100 Days For Trump ; StopGap Extension Signed By POTUS ; "DC Swampland " News ; Bannon Back In Good Graces ; Flynn Ties To Turkey Known Due To Background Check ; Additional Items To consider. 3) Europe In Focus : France Update - Presidency Race With Polling Data & News For Saturday ; Broader Europe Odds & Ends - EUCO Brexit Summit & Brexit News Items , Greece Economic Data , German Election Poll Data , Unemployment By Region ( 2016 ) , Additional Items To Consider. 4) Odds & Ends !




Markets.....






Doug Noland's Weekly Missive and compendium of global news & data !









In spite of various missteps-S&P has gained 5.32% in Trump's first 100 days-on top of 5.8% since the election. Tax & infrastructure hopium?









Today is Trump's 100th day in office. At least Mr. Market has not yet lost hope in him. US stocks gained 1.3tn in mkt cap since inauguration






Silver ETF ends the week down for the 10th consecutive day, tying the record set back in 2015.







S&P 500 (total return) finishes up 1.03% in April. Now up in 13 out of the past 14 months.







Volatility Index: lowest monthly close since January 2007, 3rd lowest in history.








Russia cuts rates for the 4th time in the past year, 50 bps move to 9.25%. Global Central Bank update...





US Politics.....






Half of those arrested in immigration raids only had traffic offenses or no record: report






Bannon is back from the dead:






Trump team did do a background check of Flynn, knew about ties to Turkey: report






"Why the polls are wrong about Trump. Again."







Tillerson to cut hundreds of jobs at State Department: report







North Korea disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President when it launched, though unsuccessfully, a missile today. Bad!







Current funding would have lapsed at midnight tonight; Congress cleared the short-term bill earlier today.







Trump has signed legislation to fund govt through next Friday as lawmakers work to finish plan for funding thru fiscal year, per







Day 99: Here's everything Trump has done so far








North Korea's missile test, fired just hours after a U.S. push for sanctions, appears to have failed






Europe.....





France, Ipsos exit poll 18-24 yrs Mélenchon: 30% Le Pen: 21% Macron: 18% Hamon: 10% Fillon: 9% Dupont-Aignan: 6%






France, Ipsos exit poll Men | Women Macron: 23 | 25 Le Pen: 24 | 20 Fillon: 18 | 21 Mélenchon: 21 | 17 Hamon: 4 | 8






France: Change of voting behaviour in 1st and 2nd round (Opinion Way poll).







1 hour ago
France: Presidential election (run-off), Odoxa poll: Macron (EM-*): 59% (-4) Fillon (LR-EPP): 41% (+4)






1 hour ago
France: Presidential election (run-off), Ifop poll: Macron (EM-*): 60% (-1) Le Pen (FN-ENF): 40% (-)





1 hour ago
France: Presidential election (run-off), BVA poll: Macron (EM-*): 59% (-6) Le Pen (FN-ENF): 41% (+6)






1 hour ago
France: Those who voted for (LR-EPP), (PS-S&D), and (FI-LEFT) unite against (FN-ENF) in second round.





Gaullist and anti-EU Nicolas Dupont Aignan has described Le Pen as 'amateurist' in the past....but he has agreed to be her PM if elected






Replying to 
President François Hollande says that “the choice on May 7,” the date of France’s second round vote, “is a choice on Europe”








1 hour ago
Marine Le Pen says she would annoint the very anti-EU Gaullist sovereigntist Nicolas Dupont Aignan as her PM. He got 4.7% in first round.






Using IFOP abstention numbers, Le Pen is still short 3.2 million votes, according to our calculation. IFOP tonight sees 60/40 for Macron.






Broader Europe....




U.K. SAYS BREXIT TALKS WILL BE TOUGH AND CONFRONTATIONAL





Open Europe report on unpicking true value of EU financial services ‘passport’ & strategies for UK in upcoming Brexit talks with EU-27.




: Barnier [EU's chief negotiator] thinks 1st phase of negotiations [the withdrawal] can be concluded by the fall





Brexit guidelines have been adopted unanimously. Ready for talks says Tusk







demands €450mn austerity cuts in unemployment, poverty allowances for 2018







Looking back....








"Whatever it takes "......







Disclosures show that Trump’s former campaign chairman participated in Ukraine lobbying






Replying to 
. On 3 May EU Commission will make detailed proposals for negotiation mandate which Council will adopt 22/5. We are ready





Replying to 
Romanian President: We can't have at the same time negotiations about exit &the relationship after. We have to start with exit






1 hour ago
Replying to 
EU's chief negotiator repeats Tusk and says a united EU is in the interest of the UK






1 hour ago
Replying to 
Estonian PM: EU ready for negotiations we stand strong & united we must protect rights of our citizens that will be first step






1 hour ago
Leaving the EU without a trade deal: this is the nightmare scenario for Britain's car industry
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Replying to 
Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, insists that the UK should pay the Brexit bill, saying that it would be a "considerable amount"







1 hour ago
Luxembourg has spoken. Does Bettel know Denmark just picked cherries?








1 hour ago
Replying to 
'No' says when asked whether if May was to come back with a stronger parl majority it would make a difference to EU27






Encouragingly, the Brexit guidelines unanimously adopted today do not fall in a category of "punitive" , per se.







Here is the text for EUCO 27 Brexit guidelines. .







Replying to 
.: UK will be in a worse postion in Europe than it is now

















1 hour ago
Merkel IV: CDU/CSU - greens - FDP? Bye bye









Italy's government may have to put more than the planned €6.6BN into insolvent Monte Paschi: La Stampa









Germany edges towards greater NATO role with troops in Lithuania via










EU-27 are today holding a special summit on Article 50 to adopt the negotiation guidelines






Replying to 
Tusk: We need to remain united as EU 27 it's only then we'll be able to conclude negotiations our uniy is also in the UK interest






Replying to 
Tusk: We also need solid guarantees for all citizens and their families affected by on both sides this must be priority





Leaders of the 27 countries that'll stay in the EU after the UK’s exit meet today — follow our LIVE blog
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.: We all want a close & strong future relationship with UK but before discussing future we'll have to discuss our past






Nationwide anti-Putin protests begin in Russia







Greek deposit flow turned positive in March, with inflows of 278 million







Greek retail sales climb 10.9 pct in Feb on strong rebound in almost all sectors








How did May/Juncker meeting go? "Badly." Juncker called Merkel at 7.30am next day. Hours later Merkel attacked UK:



Odds & Ends....




Turkey Purge update....







H/T to Mahir , details on latest mass purge in Turkey today !







BREAKING - Turkey blocks access to the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia.






Turkey blocks Wikipedia after Erdogan article citing Erdogan to be "a dictator"









1 hour ago
Erdogan just banned Wikipedia. Power being centralised in presidency. Opponents arrested or jailed. And FT columnist compares UK to Turkey





New State of Emergency decree bans "marriage programs" for matching conservative couples.








Here is an article discussing the two new decrees - run through Google Translate to get decent translation of piece !









14 civil society groups and Van's İpekyolu newspaper closed down by latest State of Emergency decrees






Turkish president issues 2 executive decrees, shutting down 1 newspaper, 1 magazine, 14 associations, 13 health clinics and 18 foundations.



Replying to 
484 academics and 98 administrative university personnel were fired.




Replying to 
3,939 public workers were fired.



Replying to 
216 health workers -- doctors, nurses, midwives -- were fired.



Replying to 
447 officers from Turkish Air Force were fired.



Replying to 
141 officers from Navy, including 13 colonels, were fired.



Replying to 
478 officers from Land Forces, including 1 general and 36 colonels, were fired.



Replying to 
44 personnel from General Staff and Defense Ministry were fired.



Replying to 
120 officers from Coast Guards were fired.



Replying to 
58 officers from Gendarmerie General Command were fired.



Replying to 
19 personnel from Foreign Ministry were fired.



Replying to 
201 imams and religious service members were fired.




Replying to 
28 personnel from high courts (Council of State, Supreme Court) were fired.




Replying to 
509 personnel from dozens of other ministries and state bodies were fired.




Replying to 
These fired workers were stripped of their titles, can't apply for a public job again, their passports revoked, ejected from public housing.





North Korea Conundrum...






Two guideposts from China pov: denuclearization of Korea Peninsula ; full implementation of UNSC Resolutions on NK.













's amphib carrier in to bolster allied show of force against .







South Korea presidential front-runner says North Korea's missile launch futile







North Korea fails in latest test of ballistic missile






BREAKING: North Korea test fired KN-17 intermediate range ballistic missile at 4:23 ET into Sea of Japan, US officials