Monday, July 25, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views .... July 25 , 2016...... Round The Horn For Monday 1. Markets : US Stocks Pull Back Ahead Of Fed Meeting , Earnings & Rowdy Start To DNC : Oil In Focus - Critical 100 Day Moving Average Breached. 2. US Politics In Focus - DNC / DNC Leaks / Polling Data. 3. Turkey Items Of Note - Purge Updates , Gulen Hunt , Turkish Threats / Accusations De Jour. 4. Germany Attempts To Deal With Wave Of Mass Murder & Terror Attack . 5.Odds & Ends.


Investors tap the brakes ahead of Fed meeting, earnings onslaught

Here's what stocks have historically done during the conventions

U.S. stocks end lower; earnings, oil drop weigh

Stocks Slide To Worst Day In A Month After Crude Carnage, Kuroda Chaos

Overnight from Asia , Morning/Afternoon From Europe , look ahead to New York opening.

WTI drops below key 100-day moving average technical level via

Perhaps more worrisome in today's price fall is that ULSD (the last hope for refiners) is leading the drop

Crude Crumbles To Fresh 3-Month Lows As Hedgies Unwind Record Longs

Turkey In Focus...

( More at Twitter T.L )

Not surprised.Erdogan previous ponder as to why should Turkey house & feed coup plotters for years-was informative.

Gulen rejects coup accusations, says any follower who might be involved in the coup attempt "betrayed my ideals"

Gulen says it's obvious that his trial in Turkey won't be a fair one, asks the US to resist the temptation to give whatever Erdogan wants.

Purge continues...on to Ambassadors.....

Binalı Yıldırım announces that "small" changes to the constitution may be made under State of Emergency, says larger changes in the pipeline

Thursday looks like an action packed day for the Military. Purge will be in high gear.

White House spox Earnest: claims about Gen Campbell behind the failed coup in Turkey are baseless and not worth of response.

Not much in the way of evidence to date. Confessions from possible torture victims , not going to move needle.

Purge numbers continue rising , almost 80,000 now..

Surprising admission , will fuel conspiracy theories.

Turkey detains 42 journalists in crackdown as Europe sounds alarm - RTRS

Democrat Convention / Presidential Politics ....

DNC emails give behind the scenes look at care of big donors

Media praises RNC after Dem convention plagued by poor coordination and logistics:

That is appropriate , might come too late to matter though.

Baltimore Mayor opens Dem convo

Chaos outside convention as demonstrators block entrance through sit-in

Sanders Booed After Saying Clinton, Kaine Must Be Elected

2016 Latest Election Polls Apocalypse now.

How Hillary Clinton's and Donald Trump's posititions in the polls have shifted.

National polls show 4-point swing toward Trump. If PEC used that swing Clinton's win prob. would fall to 65%. but...


6 hours ago
In past years, standard deviation of national opinion ~7%. 2000-2012 more like 3%. 2016 more like the latter so far

More bad optics..

Actually, both parties have seemed in this cycle to be dueling to see who could set their pants on fire first.


Police Union throwing politicians under the proverbial bus wheels.

Witnesses said Nice terrorist yelled "Allahu Akbar" driving down Prom yet German police chief didn't consider same war cry to be relevant

Bavarian Interior Minister: attack linked to Islamist terrorism

Really hard to argue these attacks have "nothing" to do with Merkel's refugee policies - Syrian refugees involved.

Don't panic -while heightened security rolled out for public places/transportation and hint of Army role floated.

Broader Europe....

European Commission says reports of a seven-year brake on free movement for an EEA UK is "wishful thinking"

Monte dei Paschi drops >8% amid capital concerns before stress test. Bank -77% ytd, reducing mkt value to €919mln.

How about an "indirect flow " of the taxpayer money then ?

Estimates of potential bill facing banks , for the resolution fund that bailed out Novo Banco - €2.9bn to €3.9bn.

Good Morning from Italy, Europe's pol high risk country w/ stress test this week & referendum in Oct (Chart via BBG)

Rajoy not going to try to form a Gov't once again ?

Hollande blazing a spectacular trail of unpopularity , when compared with recent predecessors.

China MOF: 1H 2016 SOE profits -8.5%, revenue -0.1% YoY. Coal sector turned positive, Steel & Base metals sectors remain in losses.

Thanks to CAS again that closing price 21,948.94 (-15.33) becomes 21,993.44 settlement price (+29.17).

BOJ Kuroda: G20 didn't mention HELICOPTER MONEY !! Is Kuroda trying to surprise the market on Friday? Or disappointing?

Happy Monday! G20 done, PBOC weakens daily yuan fixing most since July 6th, 6.6860/USD vs 6.6669 Friday.