Friday, May 13, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( May 13 , 2016 ) Overview For Friday The 13th ( 1. Markets & Market Related News - Quite A Disconnect From Friday's Retail Sales Report & Earning From The Major Retailers Themselves , US Treasury Yield Curve Flattening Underway 2's & 10's Compression Continues , S&P 500, Dow Sell Off, Log 3rd Straight Weekly Drop , China Stocks Drop For 4th Week In A Row , Accompanied By Commodities Carnage & Additional Items Of Note . 2. Brexit News For Friday. 3. EU-Turkey Refugee Crisis Deal On Life Support As Both Turkey And EU Dig Into Their Positions Deeper. 4. Greece In Focus - Creditor Talks Updates , Updates On Banks & NPL , Economic Data. 5. Libya In Focus . 6. Odds & Ends. )



Markets.....






Retail Sales, year-over-year (%) Overall: +3.0% ex-Autos: +3.0% ex-Autos/Gas: +4.4%
























US Yield Curve near the flattest level of the expansion: 95 bps spread b/t 10-year and 2-year yields.








Want to know the stock market's next moves? Ask the Treasury market. Here's why:








S&P 500, Dow sell off, log 3rd straight weekly drop






China stocks posts fourth week of declines ( commodities under pressure too) and US stocks selling off on Friday.







Seasonal weak period for Commodities spells another downdraft in prices. June through September swoon looms.





Eurozone GDP SA (QoQ) Q1 P: 0.50% (est 0.60%; prev 0.60%) -GDP SA (YoY) Q1 P: 1.50% (est 1.60%; prev 1.60%)







OPEC unchanged on their outlook ahead of the June meeting, WTI up 75% since the lows seen in February







| CITING SECONDARY SOURCES, SAYS GROUP'S CRUDE OUTPUT ROSE 188,000 BARRELS PER DAY TO 32.44 MILLION BPD IN APRIL - MONTHLY REPORT







Brexit........






A Evans Pritchard really calls out IMF for scandalous Brexit pressure tactics.






A historian argues that could be helpful in forcing reform of the entire EU










IMF : negotiations between post Brexit UK and European nations and other trading partners could "take years" raising uncertainty"








IMF's Lagarde just now. Brexit -1.5% to GDP at best, to -9.5% worst. "CA deficit to play possible accelerating factor for downside risk"








Right before the Referendum.....









EU-Turkey Deal & Refugee Crisis Items .....








Commission officials and met Turkish Europe minister Volkan Bozkir this morning - talks "constructive".







EU - Turkey Deal on life support...









Turkey reiterates it has no plans re : revising its anti terror laws & ball in EU court to revise V.F.T conditions.










Important to check on how Greece is fulfilling its obligations . MEPs should check on Turkey's compliance , as well.








£9.3m EU mission to shut down people smugglers in Mediterranean is making their job EASIER








Note , Austria can implement controls at Brenner under a different set of Schengen rules , if applicable.








Migration minister vows to evacuate makeshift camp at Piraeus by mid-June









EU wants a "floating hotspot" for search-and-rescue operations for migrants, coming to Italy from Libya/ Egypt.













Expect refugee & migrant numbers to start to increase...






Germans not high on the EU - Turkey Deal...






Greece.......






Current state of play..







BoG Stournaras: If agreement on May 24th, Capital Controls will be lifted








EU official: Contingency steps need to be in final deal, Europe institutions seek contingency legislation next week








EU Official: Eurogroup To Decide On Greek Loan Size On May 24th








* PENSION, TAX REFORMS STILL TO BE VERIFIED: EU OFFICIAL: BBG












 

11 hours ago
Reinstatement of waiver & participation of GGBs in QE wld potentially lead to pos impact of €400-500 mln on 2017 bank results.







Greek GDP (QoQ) Q1 A: -0.40% (est -0.70%; prev 0.10%) -GDP NSA (YoY) Q1 A: -1.30% (est -1.40%; prev -0.70%)






Libya......








Libya’s Economic Outlook- Spring 2016 via Interesting read.






US Government press release on sanctioning "obstructionist" Agila Saleh, Speaker & President of 's Parliament







Restated correctly -Central Bank in the East locked out of its underground vault. Code in possession of Tripoli CB.






94 bloc,former GNC MPs led by Jibril,say GNA is an UNdemocratic"international agreement"that doesn't represent Libya




's infighting is depleting the wealth of the country,now humanitarian crisis.More in upcoming memo






US + EU hold Libya summit Monday in Vienna. Ahead of it, US talking-up special forces, calling for lifting arms embargo, to tackle IS





Odds & Ends.....



Looting for chicken & flour a sign of extreme desperation in Venezuela.








S&P affirms at BBB-; one notch above junk, outlook stable. Reflects eroded competitiveness.






| *ITALIAN GOVERNMENT DEBT ROSE TO RECORD EU2.23 TRLN IN MARCH














Second breach , no details presently as to how much taken.