Friday, April 22, 2016

Economic News , Data & views ( April 22 , 2016 ) Overview - TGIF Round-Up ( 1. Markets Still Enjoying Sugar High & Risk On Run - Global Equity Indices Total Return in Local & US Currencies . Credit & Bonds Items Of Note - NIRP Highlight , Crude Still On Fire From Feb Lows . 2. Greece - Creditor Debt Talks Items , IMF Seems To Be Caving Again , 2. Spain - Journalists Strike In Protest Of Massive Layoffs. 3.Brexit Items For Friday - Obama Thrusts Himself In UK Referendum On EU . 4. Ukraine In Focus . 5. Libya Political News For Friday. 6. Odds & Ends. )




Markets........





Who the let the (market) dogs out ?????












Average Global Equity Returns YTD... In US Dollars: +5.4% In Local Currency: +2.1% Brazil leading in both...






Leveraged Loans are now less than 1% away from surpassing their all-time highs from last May.







CCC High Yield bonds continue to rally in vertical fashion.






The US 3-month Treasury bill yield is the same as the German 10-year bund yield: 23 bps.






European/Japanese yields: lower and lower they go, where they stop, nobody knows...






In 2011 Italian/Spanish 2-yr yields peaked at 7.6%/6.1%. Today they are negative. There is no impossible in markets.






5-Year Yields...
Switzerland: -0.70% Germany: -0.32% Japan: -0.26% France: -0.20% US: +1.36%






Crude up nearly 70% from its Feb lows. The longest downtrend in its history is over. POST:





Greece......





Creditors have worked out their differences regarding contingency measures..









In Greek law you cannot legislate contingently - whatever solution we reach over the few days must be credible says








Contingent measures have to b credible,need 2b legislated,if its mechanism or indiv. measures this has 2 b discussed says






upfront package 3% of GDP contingency measures 2% Reprofiling of debt to be triggered when needed 2-seat majority







Key concerns for after :
- Contingency measures must be legislated now - IMF says debt relief only “triggered when needed”






Greece Must Legislate Contingency Measures, says Eurogroup Chief















EU's Dijsselbloem: Greek contingency measures must be worth 2% of GDP. (DJ)







's Lagarde: Greek 'debt operation' doesn't have to happen on Day1. Can be subject to bailout implementation (DJ)





's Lagarde: Greek contingency measures have to be legislated upfront. Must be triggered w/o much discretion (DJ)






Here we go again: Greek Liquidity situation is becoming tight, ’s Regling says.






The 'hermetic sealing' of migrant route from Turkey to Greece appears over - Intern"l Organization for Migration.







Spain.....











 






Brexit......











Obama Today .......Telling UK To eat their peas and remain .....














. says comments on were not intended to impact vote outcome






Key bit of Obama's intervention: UK would be "at back of queue" after Brexit, as priority for US would be to negotiate trade deal with EU.








Q.T economist" if we leave the EU we’ll be able to fund and repay the national debt by the time 2030 comes.”

















Ukraine.....











Alexander J. Motyl: Ukraine's new Cabinet




Libya Items De Jour......






approach being employed by the UN & Western Countries is to just move ahead with the GNA even without a HoR vote & hope for the best.






*DJ LIBYA'S EASTERN GOVERNMENT POISED TO SEND ITS FIRST CRUDE EXPORTS






Presidencial Guard in charge of securing HQs rejects accusations its forces closed the meeting room & prevented MPs from entering






Odds & Ends.....





Kerry: US not against foreign banks dealing with








's banks are the weak link in Eurozone. Cap buffers low while exp recovery rate from insolvencies low as well.







Morning Note: 1. Google + Microsoft disappoint. 2. Obama weighs in on Brexit. 3. BoJ to lend at negative rates?







Relentless...yields on super-long Japanese bonds continue to evaporate. 40-year falls to record 0.28%







German automakers to recall 630,000 over emissions irregularities







: truce 'in great trouble' without urgent action: UN envoy








: Syria ceasefire "can definitely get back on track but will require urgent efforts" - de Mistura