Sunday, April 17, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( April 17 , 2016 ) Overview - Top Items For Sunday ( 1. Doha Oil Producers Meeting In Focus - While Awaiting Continuation Of The Doha Meeting Amid Talk Of Changes to Draft Accord Language Regarding Iran - Consider Current Near Production Levels For Russia And Opec ( With Iran Also Ramping Back Up As Well.) Also Note These Talks Occur With Oil Prices Still Low And Fiscal Pressures In Gulf Countries Very , Very High. 2. IMF Spring Meetings - Greece In Focus , World Growth Slowing As Austerity Seems A Dead Letter In Spring Economic Fashion Season ( Except For Greece Naturally. ) 3. Brazil Impeachment News & Views. 4. Greece Creditor Talks - Set To Possible Take Months , Conditional Austerity Measures Trial Balloon Floated ( 3BN Euros Of Conditional Measures On Top Of 5 BN Austerity Measures - 8.1 BN Euros Total For Austerity Measures Potentially For Greece. 5. Odds & Ends - Ecuador 7.8 Mag Quake Updates , Libya News Of The Day , Syria Peace Talks Updates , Spain Political Tidbits.)

Doha Talks & Current Oil Production Levels ......

fail; no surprise to me. I am staying with my forecast of prices falling to $10 to $20/barrel. Down 6% already today

Chart: WTI crude oil futures in response to Doha -

Crude -7%. Thanks for playing.

Elevator drop for Brent tonight ....

Yen jumps after Doha oil accord on output limits failed & Japan won little sympathy from G20 for interventions.

Until Iran is willing to freeze it's production , why call these fruitless meetings ?

Never should have called the Meeting...

Not a shocker , as Iran didn't even attend these Talks. ..

From earlier today.....

LATEST : Freeze Talks Delayed to Address - Differences

LATEST from : Doha Freeze Talks Delayed Amid Changes to Draft Accord



If countries struggle to freeze at nearly record production levels, imagine talks about output cuts


LATEST Doha -Freeze Talks Delayed Due to vs Differences

And of course, away from is anti-freeze (note data is up to March, April likely to be higher)

and oil production is at its highest ever

CHARTS production is at a post-Soviet Union record high

Thousands of Kuwait oil workers go on strike against pay cuts

LATEST from : - UAE finance minister tells IMF Gulf countries "facing unprecedented fiscal pressures"

IMF Spring Meetings - World Growth , Greece  ......

IMF countries vow to boost slowing world growth | "It urged countries to boost public spending and avoid deflation."

members urge ‘growth-friendly’ spending, new lending tools

Schauble on Greece, via FT. Pues eso...

IMF: Greece exempts 55% of households from income tax vs 2% in Portugal, 5% in Ireland, and 8% in the Eurozone.

French FinMin Sapin: Any departure of IMF from supporting Greece would have political fallout in Europe - By Europe he means French banks.

Latest from at IMF / World Bank Spring meetings in Washington


"These discussions have barely started," says 's Poul Thomsen on debt relief negotiations for .

"The numbers are truly extraordinary," says 's Poul Thomsen of those who are exempted from paying taxes in .

Brazil - Impeachment Updates ......

As a reminder - here is the process for Impeachment ....

The impeachment process in Brazil as President Rousseff faces key vote late Sunday

Opposition gets vote 342-Rouseff impeachment will go forward. Congress Lower House cheers as if Brazil beat Germany 7-1 in the World Cup.....

In a few minutes, Brazil's House of Representatives will officially approve president Dilma's impeachment. The proceeding now moves to the…

BREAKING: Brazil's ruling Workers' Party concedes defeat in Rousseff impeachment vote in lower house, party caucus leader says - Reuters

•Yes: 327. •No, abstained or absent: 125. •15 votes needed to impeach Rousseff.

400 votes cast in Brazil's impeachment: Yes: 298 - No: 98 - Abstentions: 4 (342 - 2/3 of total - needed to send to Senate: getting close).

If they limited their impassioned statements, this would be over already...

Brazil impeachment vote continues with now 300 votes cast: 224 in favor (342 needed), 72 against, 4 abstained; 213 votes left

Brazil vote 201 yes and 51 nay...

lower house vote: After 200 deputies — 155 for, 42 against, 3 abstentions. 342 required to pass

Dep César Messias (PSB): "If we impeach Dilma, we get Temer. If we impeach Temer, we get Cunha. After that, Renan. So I vote no."

Brazil's Impeachment Tally After 100 Votes: 73 For, 27 Against

Current vote tall in impeachment: YES (impeach): 68 NO: 24 Abstentions: 3

BREAKING NEWS: Impeachment vote begins in . Early votes side with impeaching Rousseff

Seems all 500 members of Brazil's lower house will vote 1-by-1, giving little mini-speeches each time (approx 320 face corruption charges)

Highly dramatic moments for as vote underway for Rousseff's impeachment. So far: 49 for impeachment 16 against 2/3 majority needed.

Chaotic scenes in Brazil as Dilma Rousseff impeachment session kicks off - ABC

Dilma Rousseff’s fate sparks protests on both sides in Brazil

Rousseff impeachment session starts in high tension

Debate Turns Vitriolic in Brazil as Impeachment Vote Nears via

Brazil Gears Up for Crucial Vote on Whether to Impeach Dilma Rousseff - Wall Street Journal

This has been, and continues to be, the central fact of Brazil's impeachment battle

Brazil vote 6pm London. Yes I know nobody else cares.

Watch: Brazil debates future of President ahead of impeachment vote

Brazil Congress votes on Rousseff impeachment


Good work by Katerina Soku , Lagarde sticks to official IMF position on Greece ....

Tsakalotos threatens to resign over if creditors (IMF) insist on reducing the tax-free threshold below 9,091 euros.

Bailout talks to resume but swift conclusion not expected

govt confirms that creditors weigh extra conditional measures to break deadlock, says it would accept it depending on total[1/2]

Austerity package on the table and if it is followed by relief [2/2]

govt offcls confirm & story on add'l €3bn 'buffer' measures, say they cld be considered if bundled w debt relief.

German Finance Minister urges to 'do more'

Greece’s creditors are weighing conditional austerity measures to solve bailout deadlock

Relocations from Greece by 11 April. By taking 12 today, and Vatican have done more than 21 EU countries.

There's a growing risk of Greece debt talks taking months - and it has a big payment looming

Odds & Ends.....

Ecuador Hit By 7.8 Mag Quake

Ecuador earthquake death toll climbs to 238

Car 'swallowed' by road following 7.8 earthquake in Ecuador (via )


's Hollande: UN-appointed Sarraj is the only gov't in Then 's Sisi: We support Hafter & the LNA

BREAKING: UN Libya has envoy has moved to Tripoli.

Agenda for HoR session Tmrw 1- Voting on GNA & Constitutional Amendment 2- Rejecting sanctions on Agela Saleh

Syria Peace Talks Faltering & Battlefield Updates....

Bloody urban warfare continues inside city - Map update

"We might suspend (our participation in) the talks if things carry on this way," HNC member Abdulhakim Bashar told AFP

Syrian opposition says will not negotiate 'forever' if Assad attacks continue

: HNC threatened today to suspend participation in Geneva talks unless it sees progress on Assad role, transition, humanitarian issues

: File under "wasn't breaking last time, isn't this time either" - Baath party + electoral allies win 200 out of 250 parliament seats


Says he wants Spanish state to hand over all tax collection duties to Catalonia: "then we would be responsible".

Says he wants Spanish state to hand over all tax collection duties to Catalonia: "then we would be responsible".