Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( February 17 , 2016 ) Overview ( 1. Japan Trade Data For January - Not good. 2. Stocks vs Oil - Returns Since March 2009 . 3. A Look at Global Equities - Positve YTD. Emerging Markets Starring Presently . ) Europe In Focus ( 1. UK-EU Talks / Brexit Items . 2. Refugee Crisis / Border Security. 3. Ankara Attack Turkey - Syria Situation. 4. Ukraine Political Situation - The Day After The Failed Vote Of No confidence . 5. Spain Political Updates De Jour. 6.Greece Items Of Note Today



Overview......





Japan's January trade data out... not good. Exports -12.9% (est. -10.9%) Imports -18% (-15.8%) Deficit at $1.04B








JAPAN JAN IMPORTS POST 13TH STRAIGHT Y/Y DROP






JAPAN JAN EXPORTS TO CHINA -17.5% Y/Y, 6TH STRAIGHT DROP










Since March 9, 2009...
S&P 500: +223% Crude: -33%
Still believe the S&P needs higher Oil?







Most interesting here: Industrials, Energy, & Materials outperforming with Crude still down 17% YTD and ISM Manufacturing at 48.2.






7 Global Equity indices Positive YTD...
Colombia Indonesia Mexico Turkey Argentina Russia Thailand All Emerging Mkts







Europe......



UK- EU Talks / Brexit ....



BORIS JOHNSON SAID `LEANING TOWARDS' BREXIT: ITV






Refugee Crisis / Border Security.....




With no Davutoglu in town tomorrow, no point of having the meeting in the Austrian perm rep. EU official says it's cancelled.












sets migrant cap and increases border controls








Merkel vows to keep seeking common ground on migrants








Number of Syrian at Turkish border rises to about 150,000







shifting strongly away from her "European solution" to redistribute migrants around EU w/quotas.






Austria moves to ‘plan B’, defies - wide solution to refugee crisis –






CSU's Seehofer calls for national solution to : "We can't rely on other countries to do the work." (IE Merkel's 'EU solution')








What the EU risks turning into.










Ankara Attack / Turkey-Syria  ......







Good piece on the situation in northern Aleppo and 's stance: /via







Initial signs point to Kurdish PKK militants in Ankara bombing: Turkish security source






Turkish Deputy PM: We don't know who are the perpetrators of Ankara attack. But we know they carried out their attack without a flaw







CHP MP Eren Erdem: 3 military buses burnt to ashes, at least 52 dead, 58 injured





PHOTO: Explosion in reportedly near Turkey’s parliament -






Oil.....




S&P: "We do not expect the agreement on Feb. 16 between oil ministers from Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela to freeze oil output "






Iran Oil Minister Offers No Commitment to Iranian Oil Production Limits in State Media Reports After Tehran Oil Meeting With Qatar






Buzz about OPEC/non-OPEC deal potential misses the point: OPEC itself can't reach a deal yet on output, whether it's cuts or freezes.







Ukraine.......






Samopomich convenes special meeting of party leadership: Samopomich will hold a special meeting of party leade...







Samopomich boycots Rada sessions, held 'emergency meeting' on 'oligarch coup.' Not clear if they'll leave coalition.






UKRAINE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE SAYS CHIEF IS ON VACATION: IFX








Batkivshyna Party leader Yulia Tymoshenko announced her faction was leaving the ruling parliamentary coalition.












files lawsuit over $3bn bond








Spain........













- Caretaker FM Margallo facing strong criticism from MPs over UK-EU deal. Podemos wants gov't to veto it, PSOE asks for delay.








Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias asks Spanish FM Margallo to reject UK-EU deal, says caretaker gov't "cannot compromise future of Spain".














Greece........






Greece begins 2016 with a return to falling consumer prices








Deputy Minister Sgouridis handed in his resignation after comment that PM misled by promising too much







China's COSCO named preferred bidder for privatization of 's largest port (File Pic)







IMF WANTS FULL GREECE NPL SALE, WARNS OF MORE BANK RECAPS - SOURCES







EU, IMF STILL DISAGREE ON GREECE DEBT SOLUTION - SOURCES








1664% increase in migrants in the last 12 months going from to into EU









Stocks, past year. France: -11.8% UK: -13.7% Germany: -14.5% Poland: -16% Italy: -18.6% Sweden: -19% Spain: -22% Greece: -44% Ukraine: -45%








Hundreds of trucks & private cars stranded on Greek-Bulgarian border due to farmers’ protests