Friday, February 19, 2016

Economic News , Data and Views ( February 19 , 2016 ) Overview ( 1. Global Equities In focus. 2. Two Year US Bond - Compared With Japanese , German and Swiss Two Year Debt. 3.EM Currencies Rebound A Bit. 4. Commodities In Focus - Gold Is The Star this Year. ) Europe In Focus (1. UK- EU Reach Deal Today - Initial News & Analysis . 2. Greece Domestic Items Of Note , Troika Related Matters , Economy . 3. NATO - Turkey . 4. Ukraine In Focus. 5.Spain Political Updates. 6. Odds & Ends. )


Global Equities in a better place than last week (up to 7 countries pos YTD), still much damage to repair...

2-Yr Yields US: 74 bps Japan: -20 bps Germany: -53 bps Switzerland: -97 bps If low yield = low growth, US is winning

EM currencies showing some small improvement from their lows. This is good, want to see more.

Gold: +15.7% YTD. Good to see Lumber move to pos YTD. Want to see continued improvement there & Copper as well...


UK- EU reach a deal today...... time to celebrate.

. says Cameron failed to deliver "live and let live" EU he wants. Says will be a hard sell. But doesn't obviously back either side

David Cameron announces UK-EU deal

second edition front page.

Here's 's initial take on the UK-EU deal. More detailed analysis to follow.

RT FT : Why the UK's EU referendum is an existential problem for London — and Paris

'Crystal clear' that deal includes no eurozone veto for UK, Juncker says

He is correct as to this point.


No breakthrough on refugees in Brussels talks

Farmers’ blockade at border stoking tension in Bulgaria

Gov’t plan for forced use of cards runs into the market’s failure to adapt

Minister finally asks Athens Airport chief to proceed with contract extension

Annual targets for slashing bad loans

NATO - Turkey In Focus......

See my piece on Ankara attack: the first ever Rojava-inspired vehicle-borne suicide attack in Ankara via

Lux FM "NATO won't provide unconditional support to Turkey in the case of a Turkish-Russian conflict"

militant group claims it was behind bombing

Ukraine Situation .....

Crisis heats up

Today Pres Administration received a letter of resignation from Pros Gen Viktor Shokin – acc to

Sergii Leshchenko: ’s house of cards

What the hell just happened in Kiev? As explains, yesterday’s showdown proves who still runs Ukraine:

Spain Political News Of the Day ....

Rajoy repeats that he wants to be the PP candidate if there are new elections in Spain.

Rajoy repeats that it is "reasonable and sensible" for parties that came first, second and…fourth…at general election to govern together.

Rajoy says it would damage EU and damage UK, if UK voted for Brexit in referendum: "We want to be together".

Rajoy says he "gets the feeling Sánchez hasn't wanted to talk to us" about the "reasonable and sensible" PP-PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition option

MOODY'S: Spain's "political environment is likely to be highly fragmented for the next 3-4 years".

Sánchez has just 12 days to:
1) do a deal; 2) organise grassroots ballot; 3) hold federal committee meeting;

Odds & Ends......

Stephen Roach: Negative interest rates may be a "final act of desperation."

Rising US Stockpiles. No production cuts looming from RUS/Iran/Saudis. Questions re: storage capacity at Cushing.

Eurozone consumer confidence falls sharply, -8.8, Exp. -6.6, Last -6.3

Wonder why leaders care more abt than ? New numbers show 4,800 arrived in y'day

MPs continuing to vote in Parliament while wearing gas masks to avoid being teargassed by Vetevendosje MPs.