Thursday, December 3, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( December 3 , 2015 ) - Europe Update ( Big data splash ( Germany , France , Spain , Italy ) , European equities optimistic ahead of today's big ECB meeting - Draghi expected to make major moves today , Greece inching back into spotlight ( Latest General strike today , Tsipras under the weather , Pakistan refuses to allow refugees from Greece off plane , latest batch of reforms needed in less than ten days remain to be implemented. I bn remaining in tranche which might not be released until January . First review of latest bailout scheme might not be completed until February - Greece ) , France may revamp Constitution to extend state of emergency - Unemployment data out today ) ..... Emerging Nations In Focus ( Oil and Opec Center Stage - Friday's meeting sparking all types of rumors and gaming of markets , data from South Africa - confidence & PMI ) ......... Asia In Focus ( Headlines and data from India , China and Japan in focus ! ) ...



Europe......







LATEST: National CIS election survey results: PP: 28.6%, 120-128 seats; PSOE: 20.8%, 77-89; Ciudadanos: 19.0%, 63-66; Podemos: 9.1%, 23-25;








Eu official:Institutions wil give short overview of what has happened+what is in pipeline no operational or political conclusions 2b drawed










Could remaining €1bn in current bailout tranche be extended to Jan if reforms not done? Presents "severe problems," says off'l










February is the new December for .










Greek police official says 26 Pakistanis deported from Greece being returned after Pakistani gov refuses to take them, 'action to be taken'









Border agency director troubled by internal EU fences


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| *EU OFFICIAL: WORK CONTINUES TO SET UP GREEK PRIVATIZATION FUND..the same fund that should have sold €50B by at least 2 years ago?





























Pakistan refuses to let 30 refugees deported from Greece off plane












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Draghi says Board to avoid meeting investors in quiet period. Ssys quiet periodic 7 days prior to policy meetings. (BBG)









PM 's scheduled interview at state broadcaster ERT is postponed because he is sick.







BNP expects to cut deposit rate by 20bps to -40bp, a €10bn increase in monthly pace of QE, and an QE extension by a year to Sep2017.










Euro soft ahead of policy decision as Goldman expects to drop to $1.03 on another dovish surprise.


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Time for big bang from : While consensus is for 0.1ppt reduction to -0.3%, many expect a bigger cut. (via BBG)


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services activity rises at sharpest rate in 3 months in Nov. Headline index at 56.7
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German Composite Output Index rises to 8-month high of 55.2 (54.2 in Oct), signalling further growth in Q4
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Final Germany Services Business Activity Index at 14-month high of 55.6 in Nov (54.5 in Oct)






Business activity growth in eases to 3-month low in Nov. Headline index at 51.0 (52.7 in Oct)










November sees solid rise in Italian service sector business activity (Index at 53.4)


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| *FRANCE MAY CHANGE CONSTITUTION TO EXTEND STATE OF EMERGENCY:AFP








How far will Draghi go today? Mkt expectations are quite high. 2y German govt bonds yields trade near low at -0.435%


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| Q3 ILO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 10.6% V 10.4%E; MAINLAND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 10.2% V 10.3%E

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Goldman expects to drop 3% tdy on Dovish Draghi as output gap in tremendous.


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Emerging Nations ......










MINISTER IS `OPTIMISTIC' ABOUT FRIDAY MEETING - BBG







| SAUDI OIL SOURCE SAYS "REPORT OF PROPOSED SAUDI CUT IS BASELESS"







| NOV SACCI BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 82.7 V 88.4 PRIOR


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:if we were buying oil from ,I wouldn't stay in power,those who accuse us should leave power









rebounds as the Opec rumour mill starts to speed up. Saudis to Propose conditional Cuts


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| IRAN OIL MIN URGES MEMBERS THAT OVERTOOK IRAN'S PRODUCTION SHARE TO REDUCE OUTPUT TO RESTORE STABILITY IN THE MARKET - SHANA











Standard Bank South Africa edges closer to stabilisation, rises to 49.6 (47.5 in Oct)


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Asia.......







Caixin surveys signal return to growth in November. Here's our analysis:


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| NOV PMI SERVICES: 50.1 V 53.2 PRIOR ...business optimism at record low
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| OCT TRADE BALANCE ...18th consecutive deficit

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| *KIUCHI: EFFECTS OF QQE HAVE ALREADY BEEN DIMINISHING







| Bans Some Asset Mgmt Products on Financing Concern: Herald







Nikkei closes almost unchanged at 19939.90 while Yen strengthens on decision day.


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