Overview For The Day.....
A great overview for the day !
EURUSD 300 pips lower since Draghi jawboning
Yield curve negative through six years...can the ten year bund also go negative ?
Germany to say " Nein " on EU Deposit Insurance ?
ECB to extend QE by €500B through end-2017, comprising increase in purchased to €60B/month to March 2017 then tapering - Goldman
Over $1.5 Trillion worth of Eurozone government bonds now have negative yield http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-23/draghi-s-signal-adds-190-billion-to-negative-yield-universe …
Europe.....
Spain ....
Ara article says Catalan parliament would likely debate and vote on "solemn" breakaway declaration during first week of November.
Right-wing minority party Vox has already sent out a statement demanding Rajoy now suspend home rule in Catalonia:
The breakaway declaration—before Mas is appointed First Minister—would be the start of the road towards an "independent Catalan republic".
Poland .....
Here’s Why Poland’s Election Might Shake Up Europe http://bloom.bg/1QZSApp
as both #Ukraine and #Poland prepares for elections on Sunday, clouds over their relations writes @getmalyona http://iwp.org.ua/ukr/public/1778.html …
Forbes Opinion
Polls indicate Poland’s Law and Justice Party is poised to win Sunday’s elections: http://onforb.es/1RqS2sv
#Poland has benefited hugely from EU membership. It's now turning Eurosceptic http://econ.st/1LKur2u
#Coal Miners to Stage Warsaw Protest as Poland's #Elections Loom http://bloom.bg/1RpNimR via @business #poland #politics #silesia #unions
Portugal.....
NEW BLOG POST - Uncertainty ahead in #Portugal as Socialist Party looks set to vote down centre-right minority gov't http://openeurope.org.uk/blog/government-formation-takes-an-unexpected-turn-in-portugal/ …
Portugal Socialists vow to topple government with no-confidence vote http://reut.rs/1S0pEhK
Interesting stuff from #Portugal. Socialists set to vote down Passos Coelho's minority gov't. It means he'd have to make way for another PM.
Portugal next, after Greece: Defiant Portugal shatters the eurozone's political complacency — @AmbroseEP — http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11946412/Defiant-Portugal-shatters-the-eurozones-political-complacency.html …
Refugee Crisis ......
Austria calls for "Fortress Europe "
And note Slovenia is mulling the building of it's own border fence...
Germany to push for compulsory EU quotas to tackle refugee crisis http://gu.com/p/4dg3q/stw
#BREAKING Greece sees record 48,000 migrant, refugee arrivals in past five days: IOM
Refugee flows to #Greece surge, U.N. says Russian airstrikes not to blame http://reut.rs/1S0wW5h #refugeecrisis #Syria
Ankara, still blurry, now agrees to name Bashar al-Assad ‘honorary president’ for six months @fehimtastekin http://almon.co/2j7r
#SyrianArmy supported by airpower continues its offensive against #ISIL militants
http://sptnkne.ws/WPM
List of confirmed participants for @JunckerEU Leaders mtng on migratory flows #WesternBalkansRoute ~@Mina_Andreeva
Juncker urges EU member states to respect migrant aid pledges http://dlvr.it/CWzRXK
Orbán stares down Merkel on migration — calls Europe "rich and weak". http://www.politico.eu/article/orban-refugees-hungary-we-are-in-deep-trouble/ …
Takeaway - Merkel to seek refugees brought directly from Middle East to control numbers and avoid perilous journeys
Greece.....
Monti: Ignoring the Greek referendum was a violation of democracy with @VincentiDaniela http://www.euractiv.com/sections/euro-finance/monti-ignoring-greek-referendum-was-violation-democracy-318816 …
Negotiations dragging on regarding bank recap and Gov't stakes
Greece has to move quickly and make some tough decisions for those bailout fund dollops.
British Government Rejects Military Base in Cyprus As a New Migrant Path http://dlvr.it/CXFNy5 #Greece
'Quadriga' team of creditors' inspectors leave Athens after three days of inconclusive talks. €2bn tranche payment to #Greece looks unlikely
GREEK FINMIN SAYS SOLVING FORECLOSURES ISSUE IS MAJOR STICKING POINT IN TALKS WITH LENDERS
Greece's creditors demand further reforms @Euractiv in partnership with @LaTribune http://www.euractiv.com/sections/euro-finance/greeces-creditors-demand-further-reforms-318786 …
Who are these “armed, masked men in uniforms attacking migrant boats off Greece”? http://goo.gl/fb/ZUE0Ys
GREEK FINMIN SAYS SOLVING FORECLOSURES ISSUE IS MAJOR STICKING POINT IN TALKS WITH LENDERS
#Greece Tsipras attacks creditors' demands for conclusion of 1st review. "We can't accept neoliberal demands that will tear social cohesion"
Foreclosures becoming a major issue in #Greece re negotiations with the Quadriga. Back in crisis mode. (I know, you missed it)
Good piece w detail/background on Greek govs dismissal of top tax official as concerns grow about political meddling
Greek media strike over TV license overhaul http://dlvr.it/CX1Bh5
Cabinet dismisses revenues chief as bill seeks to increase oversight http://dlvr.it/CWzMCx
#Greece Q2 gg debt confirmed by Eurostat at €300.06 bln corresponding to 167.8% of GDP. #economy #ec #imf #markets
Remember the Greek market shutdown? Stocks are moving on http://dlvr.it/CWxYZf
Quadriga sees high cost cutting potential in #Greece banks, also incl payroll costs (via @euro2day_gr) #economy #banking #ecb
Final meeting between #Greece Fin & Econ Mins with quadriga mission chiefs at 1pm (via @capitalgr) #economy #ec #ecb #esm #imf
Draft bill on #Greece bank recap to be tabled for public consultation early next week & voted by Oct 30 (via @kathimerini_gr) #banking #ecb
Friday Data.....
EMU October PMIs Indicate Q4 Growth Momentum; Price Pressures
https://mninews.marketnews.com/content/emu-october-pmis-indicate-q4-growth-momentum-price-pressures …
Latest #Germany #PMI data suggests that further slowdown in production growth is likely http://ow.ly/TKCwd http://ow.ly/i/dV8rW
#Germany Mfg #PMI at 5-month low of 51.6: "Today’s numbers signal a note of caution for German manufacturers." http://ow.ly/TKrt4
Flash #Germany Composite Output Index at 54.5 in Oct (54.1 in Sep), Services at 55.2, Manufacturing #PMI at 51.6 http://ow.ly/TKrkA
Eurozone Oct composite PMI 54.0, beating 53.4 consensus
ECB professional forecasters lower inflation outlook to 0.1% 2015, 1.0% 2016 and 1.5% 2017; vs Q3 forecasts of 0.2%, 1.3% and 1.6%
October purchasing manger surveys suggest Eurozone growth likely to be steady at 0.4% in fourth quarter.
Output growth in #France quickest in 4 month in October. Composite Output at 52.3, Services 52.3, Mfg #PMI at 50.7 http://ow.ly/TKpTE
France Oct Mfg PMI 50.7 vs 50.2 consensus; 50.6 Sep
France Oct Service PMI 52.3 vs 51.7 consensus; 51.9 Sep
Climb in France Oct services PMI to 4-month high of 52.3 follows Insee report that Oct services sentiment index reached 4-year high of 100
Portugal president names incumbent Passos Coelho prime minster. Socialists and leftist allies say new center-right govt will be short-lived.
Citi on #Euro: At the very minimum we will see a move to $1.0800. This is building into a perfect storm of EUR making a new low by year end.
Citi: As we sprint through final straight of 2015, looks like year is going to belong to the ECB's Draghi, and not to the dilly dallying Fed
Chart of the day: 1y1y Eonia fwd rate dropped during ECB presser showing that mkts prices in a 10bp rate cut by >50%
MS: ECB has made it clear that it wants lower EUR, we will not fight it as prospects of more QE & lower depo rate suggests higher cap flight
RBS expects QE extension (by 6mths) & acceleration (to €90bn/mth) in Dec. In addition, now believes #ECB to cut deposit rate to -0.30%.
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