Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( October 13 , 2015 ) ..... Europe In Focus ( News & Data Splash for EZ - Industrial Production August at -0.5 ( matches consensus ) / EU Summit - Focus on Refugee Crisis , UK Issue / Future of euro / UK Ref ; Euro and Oil in focus ; Greece news & Data , Sweden political item ; Additional data of the day from Italy / UK / Spain / France / Finland ; Dutch Referendum on EU- UKR Treaty officially confirmed ) ...... Asia and Emerging Markets ( China news & data ; India wholesale prices data ; Japan - economic weakness leads to rate cut speculation ; Singapore data of the day ; Malaysia scandal for Goldman ; Brazil in crisis )


Overview ........







Morning Note: 1. Trading pain at JPMorgan. 2. Federal Reserve board divided. 3. China lowflation








Refugee crisis.....







EU setting up 'centres for identification and expulsion'. 'People are not allowed to leave them' - commission official






: To be blunt, the member states will have to do as they've promised on in September.










23% of Turkish asylum seekers have their claims recognised in EU countries. Safe?






: High time for the EU MS to match Commission's financial commitments to tackle .






: We will assess situation in Greece by end of Nov, so that Dublin can be applied again.








: Commission will soon put out a statement on the temporary reintroduction of border controls by some countries.






Worked intensively with Italians&Greeks 2 establish hotspots.Fully operational in Lampedusa, next week Lesvos says







: All EU needs to work together - urgently need experts to assist at the 'hotspots' on front line counties.






: We need to see a substantial number of relocations take place each month.






: First EU relocation of aslyum seekers have taken place, as well as return flights for economic migrants.








: Response to cannot be a piecemeal. Measures to be enforced at the EU level, national & local levels.








: Guarding external borders has to be stepped up - COM believes that European Coast guard would be a contribution to that.







: Reform of Dublin necessary - when Dublin came about, the current was not envisioned.







Broader Europe.....






German government lowers 2015 forecast to +1.7% (prev. +1.8%), 2016 prediction unchanged at +1.8%. forecast: +0.3% (2015)








2,000 protest in Barcelona over legal action against self-rule vote: Mayor Colau leads demo













Notice german debt going negative again ! 5 year bund sold at -0.03 today











HRADF says Fraport, preferred bidder 4 regional airports, renewed its offer, concession agreement expected to be signed by year-end.










Apart from that.....









Eurozone August industrial production -0.5%, matching consensus








| *SWEDEN DEMOCRATS REQUEST NO CONFIDENCE VOTE IN FINANCE MINISTER








German MPs are standing up to Merkel. I don't recall this happening with the eurocrisis or her failing









| Aug General Government Debt: €2.18T v €2.199T






UK Unemployment 5.4% Vs est 5.5%. Average weekly earnings 3% Vs est 3.1%















Ruble weakens as recent oil rally turns out to be a 'dead dog bounce,' as Citi puts it.











NBG expects GDP to contract 2.1% in Q3, 5.3% in Q4 & 1.3% in 2015, sees recession of 1.2% in 2016.








| Sept Spanish Banks ECB borrowings at €135.8B









*EU OFFICIAL SAYS ONE-DAY SUMMIT TO FOCUS ON MIGRATION CRISIS. U.K. ISSUE, FUTURE OF EURO ALSO ON SUMMIT AGENDA LEADERS TO WORK ON U.K. REF.









Second lowest negative reading since 2001.









. Euro driven by delayed Fed lift-off expectations. Markets see 1st rate hike by mar2016 meeting.










creeps up and now trades near session high of 1.1413 w/ no news behind the move.









says visit to Athens is postponed due to 'very serious family matters'.







| SEPT FINAL CPI M/M: -0.3% V -0.3%E; Y/Y: -0.9% V -0.9%E









| SEPT CPI M/M: -0.4% V -0.4%E; Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.1%E




















| Sept CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.2%








Asia , Emerging Markets......




| *YUNNAN COPPER SEES JAN.-SEPT. NET LOSS 384.4M-434.4M YUAN





| One of the big 4 Chinese automakers..FAW CAR EXPECTS 9-MO. NET TO FALL UP TO 96% ON YEAR; 3Q NET LOSS OF UP TO 154.2M YUAN






| *MAERSK SAID TO SELL DEC. AL-SHAHEEN OIL AT $1.60-$2/B DISCOUNT






| PBOC TO EXTEND TRADING HOURS IN DOMESTIC FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET TO 15:30 GMT (23:30 CHINA TIME) - RTRS






| SEPT WHOLESALE PRICES: -4.5% V -4.4%E







| *CHINA JAN.-SEPT. COTTON IMPORTS DROP 42% ON YEAR: REUTERS








| *JAPAN SAYS ECONOMIC WEAKNESS SEEN, FIRST CUT IN VIEW SINCE 2014





| Q3 ADVANCED GDP Q/Q: +0.1% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.3%E








| SEPT CGPI (PPI) M/M: -0.5% V -0.4%E; Y/Y: -3.9% V -3.9%E








Debt-fueled trading drove boom & bust in stocks. Now strategy has shifted to bonds.











| MoF sells 10Y bonds at 2.99% v 3.10%e (lowest yield since Dec 2008)








Wednesday session started on a ‘risk off tone” after deflationary numbers from . Nikkei ends down 1.9% at 17891









| SEPT PPI Y/Y: -5.9% V -5.9%E; (43RD MONTH OF DECLINE)








China September un-inflation, more of the same. Dumpling index (pork/veggies) slowed, PPI contracted for 44th month.














Goldman Sachs Entangled in Scandal at Malaysia Fund 1MDB









| SEPT CPI Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.8%E; Rate of growth slowed for first time in 4 months






Brazil's Next Big Crisis Is Scaring Bankers and Wiping Out Jobs








The Next China Default Could Be Days Away as Steel Firms Suffer








remains biggest exporter of deflation. Sep producer prices extend slump for 43rd month









Good Morning from Berlin. Asia mkts down as deflationary pressure from China rises. Producer prices drop for 43rd mth








says 8 non-OPEC nations have been invited the next OPEC meeting on Oct21in Vienna.