Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Special Report - Greece ( July 8 , 2015 ) - D- Day Summit Set for This Weekend ( Saturday Key EWG - Deal Or No Deal Time / Sunday Full EU - To Consider Plan B ? ) ..... European Parliament Debate This Morning Could Set tone though ( Tsipras / Tusk / Juncker Set To Give Speeches ) ..... State Of Play ( ECB Indicates ELA Could Be Cut If Weekend Is a Failure , What Proposals Will / Can Greece Offer That Satisfy Troika and Greece Electorate After Sunday's Referendum , Grexit / Default Openly discussed Now , Germany roiled , Is There Any Way Ou Politically for The Parties ? ) ...... Economic Odds and Ends......



Evening Tweets....






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Some of the key quotes from this morning's European Parliament









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After long hedging on Greek debt, the US ups the pressure on Germany by urging restructuring:











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What Plan B? One day after Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he had a Grexit scenario, his aides downplayed it









Always easier to stand on two legs









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IMF head says what has changed is clearly that Greece is in a situation of acute crisis, which needs to be addressed seriously & promptly







Export and import data point to recession









Haircut fears boost state coffers










MoF: Bank holiday extended until Mon, pensioners may withdraw (additional) €120 in 1 transaction from bank cashiers.






Morning Tweets.....




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debate with , and on starts at 9.30. Here's the speakers list.




We believe them...










auctions €1.25 bln 6-month T-Bills today. Total roll-over amount at €2 bln. Previous yiled at 2.97%.







More firms put staff on forced leave






No doubts left- till Friday we have to decide euro or drachma






Reminder: IF *big if* it comes to 3rd programme for - Schäuble would need mandate CDU/CSU - many MPs against. (1/2)








& CDU/CDU MPs more willing to rebel on bailouts - a record number (29) voted against 4 month extension in Jan: (2/2)










ECB NOYER: GREXIT WOULD REQUIRE MEASURES TO BOOST EZ CREDIBILITY - MNI










Noyer: Sunday is Final Deadline for . If No Deal By Sunday, Risk of Chaos In Greece. (DJ)








. to : Shame we didn't receive proposals from Athens yesterday. Hopefully we will get them by tomorrow.









Noyer: If No Deal, Greek Economy Would Collapse. Ready to Face Any Scenario. Working on Hypothesis Greece Remains in Euro. (DJ)








Noyer: Can't Indefinitely Increase Greece Risks Faces.





Contagion watch: 10y risk premium over German bunds falls as gives a final deadline.







*SAPIN SAYS IT WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE NOT TO PREPARE FOR GREXIT








*SAPIN SAYS IT WOULD BE DAMAGING TO EXCLUDE IMF FROM GREEK TALKS






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*NOYER: IF NO PERSPECTIVE FOR DEAL, ECB OBLIGED TO END ELA





Indication of mood for 3rd prog in DE - already taken to court for even *considering* it.






“The Tsipras proposals: Tails I haircut Europe, heads I haircut Greek depositors“. And not easy to say which is which




Yeah, I read Tsipras's choice as meaning either accept creditors offer to save banks by administering depositor haircut.




or try to stick out for debt relief, which might lead to Grexit.






Bottom line is still, if he is offered bank bail-in instead of debt relief Grexit outcome more likely.











So & creditors have 4 days to agree to more extensive and tougher program than the one they failed to agree on in last 4 months hmm




Greek haircut seems unavoidable in order to get 's debt burden to 120% of GDP, IMF's preferred level (via BBG)


DEBT TO GDP DECLINES TO IMF'S PREFERRED LEVEL







ELSTAT releases May Commercial Transactions.







What will happen in Greece? - By Nagehan Alçı | DS Column










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This isn't a queue at an Athens ATM, but a soup kitchen in Porto. Portugal did all the "right things".