Friday, July 10, 2015

Greece Special Report ( July 10 , 2015 ) Here's what we know presently ( Greece has submitted its Proposals to the Creditors , who have begun their assessments. Greek Gov't will begin the process of moving " Prior Actions " through Parliament , Key Eurogroup set for Saturday - the make or break session - key news and views touching upon " very fluid " state of play ! )

Evening Wrap......

This just gets better and better: 15 Syriza Lawmakers Who Voted ‘Yes’ Say They Oppose Bailout Plan.


Greek Parliament approves measures, authorises Tsipras & Tsakalotos to negotiate with lenders: 250 in favour, 32 against & 8 abstain

Questions now if Tsipras can continue with this set-up or whether he needs new MPs/coalition/elections. Also, will lenders trust him

Strong support for proposals in Greek Parl't (250/300 MPs) but problem for PM is only 145 from coalition, raising Qs about majority

It appears SYRIZA-Ind Greeks coalition has failed to maintain majority in this vote, although proposals pass with opposition support

Parl speaker & Syriza MP Constantopoulou to vote 'present', saying can't support proposal. Says Greece 2nd case of blackmail after Cyprus

Alternate Minister for Social Security Stratoulis abstains along with three others so far


Creditors make 'positive evaluation' of Greek debt proposals: EU source v: ↦ 58 (ESM) + 16 (IMF) billion


Several thousand anti-austerity protesters in front of 's parliament saying to another memorandum

Chances of deal still 50-50 because hardliners like Germany have to be convinced, EU sources say /via

Morning Tweets.....


So, the Greek government's red lines were actually lines in the sand. And they are now being washed away.

What was the point of the referendum? This:

Tsipras urges SYRIZA MPs to back deal, says no mandate for 'Grexit'

Greek proposal to lenders & loan request to be examined by Parlt cttee at 3pm w debate to begin at 7pm + vote very late

SYRIZA MP Vitsas tells Skai TV that he's "sure" parliamentary group will remain united

SYRIZA MP Vitsas: "We want clear reference to debt relief & a commitment from lenders to begin discussing this from October"

Technocrats in EC & French economic & finance committee officials in Brussels helped Greeks write proposals on Weds

Bill submitted last night authorises Tsipras & Tsakalotos to negotiate with lenders. Has to pass through ctte, then plenary

Left Platform Lafazanis and ANEL boss Kammenos not happy. Greece may be heading for national unity govt of some sort. Big role for Potami?

Greek ball is now in German court. Either Merkel agrees to (serious) debt relief and Bundestag backs it, or Grexit + default + EMU fiasco

Difficulty for Tsipras is that Greek referendum has life of its own. He can't call it, then ignore message. Storing up big political trouble

Syriza has accepted terms rejected by the Greek people in the Referendum. Unless he gets debt relief, can't see how he can sell this

Blanchard: IMF debt sustainability report seen as "too pessimistic" by Europeans but in fact it's much much worse


I expect & both of which have made trouble for management in the past, to be tricky

German Ministry of Finance on : Debt restructuring that involves reduction in present value of debt would count as classic haircut.

German Ministry of Finance on : Repackaging of Proposals From End June Won't Be Enough.

* Imf's Lagarde, EU's juncker, ecb's Draghi, eurogroup's Dijsselbloem to confer on Greece at 1100 gmt - eu source - RTRS

Greek proposal needs unanimity of all 19 in eurogroup to begin talks, 6 parli votes on Mon/Tues incl. (no new loans) Finns & angry Germans





Greek parliament to begin debate at committee level at 3pm, BBG reports.

Post-sleep: VAT/pension plan almost identical to June troika plan. Good enuf for 3yr prog? Does Berlin trust to implement?

Just noticed new econ reform plan goes after smaller boats: lux tax in creditors' plan was on yachts > 10m


A must-read on long-awaited economic reform proposal Greece wants to remain a member of the Eurozone

Deutsche Bank: It is possible the government will need to make additional compromises over the next forty-eight hours

* German cdu lawmaker fuchs says has a little bit of a problem with trusting Greek proposal - RTRS

* Austrian chancellor faymann says there is a chance for agreement on Greece that must be used - RTRS


Most importantly, why hold a referendum and then agree to pretty much the same proposal rejected by over 61% of Greek voters?


Skimmed through new Greek proposals. Kωλοτούμπα it is. Still some discrepancies on labour market and military spending.

So we can begin "discussing" it [debt relief language]" forever

My view: without the ECB's move on ELA collateral and that too end ELA for Greek banks, Tsipras would not have capitulated.


IMF: Greece needs more debt relief, more funding, more bank recap. than before referendum via


1. With some minor changes this reform package is substantively the one offered by creditors on 26th June and rejected in the referendum.


2. But if Greece has capitulated on the reforms, it's not a total climb down. They are asking for years of financing in return not months.


3. Debt relief isn't in the offer to creditors but is the stuff to the Greek Parliament and a related non-paper.


4. Seems likely that *if* the Greeks carry out the reforms offered, some kind of maturity extension/rate cut is possible.

7. Economy has taken a huge hit in last two weeks (1-2% of GDP lost) and a big hit over last 5/6 months. The big question, was it worth it?

8. Can't see many concessions won by the referendum call, can see lots won by the creditors "deal or you're out" threat though

speaking on proposals


Playing down Syriza split


Deputy CSU caucus leader Friedrich: “Greek government is either cheating their own people or us again.” ~BBG |

Greece’s Development Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis May Resign

government made significant concessions to creditors - it is now proposing much of what the Greek people rejected (1)

Significant challenges still remain following the proposals but this is a step towards a deal (2)

Deep VAT & pension reforms, vague commitment to debt relief, and unhappy Left wing/right wing ministers. A summary

This is Greece’s Final Bailout Proposal to the Creditors; Full Document of Reforms

Notably signatures of Energy Minister Lafazanis, Defense Minister Panos Kammenos not alongside those of cabinet peers

Greece's loan request to ESM + prior actions on Parl's site w doc seeking commitment to restructuring debt after 2022

If the proposal gets the green light by then it will allow for negotiations to take place. This is not the final proposal.


LISTEN: on why latest reform plans from herald more austerity, not less

Gov non-paper says request for 3-year loan program sent to ESM includes ‘regulation’ of debt + 35-bln-euro ‘front-loaded investment package'

IMF Warns of Tougher Future Conditions in Greece

Greek PM to brief Syriza MPs on proposal to creditors Fri 8 am and, according to , gov might legislate as early as Sat