Saturday, July 11, 2015

Greece Special Saturday Report ( July 11 , 2015 ) - Updates (Trust is big issue - will Troika demand de facto national unity Gov't to ensure imprementation ? Initial take by Fin Mins - Greece proposals insufficient , just basis for Talks Saturday ! Friday saw Greece's Parliament approve Thursday's Controversial Bailout Proposals submitted to the Troika , which in turn gave the green light for Saturday's EWG Talks .....State of Play at present - Greece political situation after the events of Thursday and Friday , initial reactions / perspectives and viewpoints of various EWG Fin Mins ahead of EWG - France seemingly remains Greece's only visible and helpful friend at EWG , additional news & views of the day ) .


AND WE'RE OFF - EWG finally underway !




He would know!


Remains biggest obstacle: differences between creditors (IMF & EZ) and between MS too

Debt Sustainability Analysis on is going to be a huge problem


1) Decision must be made this weekend 2) Proposals are nowhere near good enough 3) we don’t trust the Greeks anyway. 1+2+3 =


German FinMin Schäuble: Greek Financing Gaps Now Go Beyond Anything Talked About in Past. (DJ)

Guindos: Greek proposal just a list of prior actions. New Memorandum will have to be prepared if negotiations go ahead.


Guindos: "We have to listen to the Troika" "[Greek] Credibility is very low" "I hope Grexit will not take pace"

Gramegna (Luxembourg): Obvious that needs some help with debt. When we're going to agree on that is another issue.

seem to be saying to Tsipras the problem is not your measures its you

finance minster hits the nail on the head. bailout request silent on what the banks need to reopen.

Mramor (Slv): Debt reprofiling unavoidable. No use in postponing that discussion and not putting figures on the table

Dijsselbloem says it will be "quite a difficult meeting".

Quite a bit of criticism, lack of trust, concerns on implementation, ownership, President says ahead of the meeting.

The infernal triangle is still there: 1. No haircut. 2. No deal without the IMF. 3. IMF insists on debt restructuring. Vvv hard to reconcile

Italian FinMin Padoan: "We're not here to finalise negotiations tonight. We're here to assess whether negotiations can start". Amen.

's FinMin Padoan says it's not striking a deal tonight. (BBG)

Sapin: There's no debt taboo, but we don't want nominal reduction. It's red line for many member states.

"There is no taboo about the debt", though "we will not discuss nominal haircut" (Sapin).

Sapin: Greek PM has said important reforms can be voted by parliament as of next week. That's good way to rebuild trust.

"I heard say reforms will be voted through parliament next week", important in order to restore trust (Sapin)

None of them will say it, but they obviously won't trust this govt to implement until it formally includes ND and/or Potami. and/or PASOK

Dombrovskis: Willingness from Greek side to reach agreement, but still many issues and concerns to be addressed.

No doorstep comments from Belgian FinMin Van Overtveldt, who's just arrived.

will decide the context of a 3 years reform program. Monitoring and conditionality's main issues. Tsakalotos under pressure.

Troika Says Greek Proposal Not Enough To Meet Targets, Serves As "Basis For Negotiations"

' Georgiades Says Must Remain in Core of European Union. (BBG)

dutch delegate wiebes says serious reservations about greek commitment

IMF's Lagarde stated on Sat upon her arrival to meeting that she hopes that there will be progress on Greece's issue today. (ANA)

New Greek Bailout Terms May Be More Austere Than Before: Rajoy

Dutch Eric Wiebes: Greek plan "missing specificity" "weaker than it should be in certain areas" and raises severe doubts about implementing

Potami leader Theodorakis calls for national unity government

LOL! 's FinMin Schelling Says Should Guarantee Reforms to Be Implemented. (BBG)

Austria's Schelling: The concern (with Greek programs) has always been about implementation

Netherlands' Wiebes: More steps needed to rebuild trust with Athens


French FinMin Sapin to meet 's counterpart Tsakalotos before , BBG reports citing Figaro.

Dombrovskis: Today we have to discuss giving mandate to institutions to start negotiations about ESM programme.


Estonia's FinMin Sester says several questions still unresolved. (BBG)


~: Important day for and . Greek government has made important gestures.

Useful table showing Greek concessions to creditors + where proposals still deemed to fall short

After vote last night, Tsipras essentially has 3 choices: Reshuffle, new coalition or snap elections


Outcome of mtng on wll depend on 'discussion btwn EZ Mins'; Mr Schäuble will not try to preoccupy outcome ~German offcial

zone FinMins hv serious doubts abt 's request, deal to start talks is far frm certain, sources close to the talks say ~



Syriza dissent worsens, 15 more MPs say they won't back austerity (despite supporting Tsipras last night)

Last night vote was the product of him leading 's strategy for 5 months, he was not there even to support Tsipras

Zoe had the reputation of the ballsiest in SYRIZA, at a moment that required balls she abstained

50-50 chance of Greek bailout deal, sources say ahead of . (dpa)

BOOM: Schäuble said to think the Greek proposals are inadequate and opposes any further talks


EU source: Will be tough meeting. Much scepticism among member states. Mistrust & lack of confidence in Greeks after so many wasted months


Oh, give me a break! Creditors Say Greek Plan Not Enough to Meet Budget Target: FAS

Troika don't think Greek fiscal measures will hit budget surplus targets. Capital controls can do that to an economy

Working Group meeting underway ahead of Eurogroup due at 3pm (CET). 3rd aid package seen at €78-84 bln (via )

Ahead of the on , a YouGov poll illustrates how harshly the Finnish public views debt relief


So overnight the Greek bailout offer passed 250 Yes, 32 No. But from 162 govt MPs, 8 abstentions, 7 absent, 2 no. More later

will need about 80-85 bln for its new rescue package acc to estimations


govt suffers wider losses than expected - Tough days ahead for Tsipras - Almost impossible to pass bailout laws under this coalition

Chances of deal still 50-50 because hardliners like Germany have to be convinced, EU sources say