Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Economic News , Data and Views ( June 23 , 2015 ) - Broader Europe and Overnite Asia Updates ( PMIs for the EMU surge for June - Germany and France in focus , EMU Services PMI Activity strong as well , Spain items of note , Italy if focus - Renzi says Italy no longer sick man of Europe / Retail Sales data rise for May as well ) ...... Greece Updates ( ELA lifted another 1 BN by the ECB this morning as Banks look able to withstand another 20 BN of withdrawals at current collateral haircuts , For Tripras - selling deal at home will be a key - as well getting a debt relief pledge from Troika , Opposition to deal with GR not merely from Germany - Austria very vocal today and says deal needs concrete plan for implementation , ECB wants list of prior actions for GR spelled , next 48 hours seen as key for any deal - trust extremely low on all sides ! )



Tweets.....

Broader Europe





sales rise 0.7% m/m in June (-0.1% in May). Food sales up 1.0%, non-food sales up 0.5%




Flash Services PMI Activity Index at 49-month high of 54.4; Manufacturing at 14-month high of 52.5














FRANCE FLASH JUNE MFG PMI 50.5; MNI MEDIAN 49.7; MAY 49.4 FRANCE FLASH JUNE COMPOSITE PMI 53.4; MAY 52.0






GERMANY FLASH JUNE MFG PMI 51.9; MNI MEDIAN 51.5; MAY 51.1 GERMANY FLASH JUNE COMPOSITE PMI 54.0; MAY 52.6






EUROZONE FLASH JUNE COMP PMI 54.1; MEDIAN FORECAST 53.6; MAY 53.6




enlists US economist for green plan to create thousands of jobs






A Brexit? Why Gibraltar says no thanks to the UK's possible exit from the European Union







Italy no longer Europe's sick man says Renzi: Premier says country now 'part of solution'




sanctions show bright side as companies push to cut debt.












CHINA JUN HSBC MFG PMI FLASH INCREASE TO 49.6 (FCAST 49.4 ) VS PREV 49.2






manufacturing dips below 50 to end worst quarter for over 2 years. More here:








Downbeat Chinese manufacturers cut jobs at fastest rate for over 6 years. Full analysis here:






Greece......






Soc Gen: Greek banks can sustain further deposit flights of around €20bn at unchanged collateral haircuts





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stock market +3.4% today. Following Mon +9%, the General Index erased last week's losses of 11.3%.





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Greek bankers say daily outflows down to 400 million euros and many now cancelling their deposit removal orders.






(2) by mid-July ELA tap could stop "in order to force the government into accepting capital controls"






Next challenge for Greek PM Tsipras: sell any deal to his own party back in Athens. (h/t )









For Tsipras, pleasing lenders may be doddle compared to satisfying party - steps into SYRIZA's world







Labour Min Skourletis says pledge on debt relief important to complete deal with lenders. Tsipras needs this to clinch MPs' votes











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* Greek deputy parliament speaker says current offer to creditors looks difficult to pass - RTRS








Junior Coalition Partner ANEL parliamentary team meets at 14:30 (local time) over yday's updates.





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"Political solution" near in Greece. ie one which makes no economic sense, but which can be sold to parliaments.






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GREECE MUST PROPOSE CONCRETE ACTION PLAN, SCHELLING SAYS




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SCHELLING OPPOSES STARTING NEXT GREEK AID PROGRAM BY BACK DOOR









* Austrian finance minister says no agreement on Greek proposals without concrete plan for implementation, laws - RTRS










* Poland's Central Bank board member zajdel-kurowska says Poland ready for potential grexit, immediate impact would be limited - RTRS








* Lithuanian Central Bank governor says expects emergency funding approval for Greek banks to continue on a daily basis - RTRS






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negotiations: next 48 hours being described as "crucial" - deal not cut yet, talks ongoing government ministers insist









* EU commission says would like to see a list of prior actions for Greece spelled out - RTRS











Our reporting bank ELA increase just under €1bn & another gov council call is set tomorrow









ECB has again raised ELA ceiling for Greek banks this morning, reports. Obvious move in light of progress made yesterday.





Given timing likely GC have pre-approved daily ELA tranches through Thursday *ECB Said to Raise Greek Bank ELA Cap by Around EU1b: Reuters




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Varoufakis objected to Schaüble's capital control plan as Greek coast too unmanageable to patrol €s by





Greek bond yields move lower on deal hopes. 's 2y yields plunges to 22.2%.











raises emergency funding for Greek banks to around €89bn.








Eurozone convergence trade continues on hopes. Peripheral spreads shrink up to 5bps. 10y Bund ylds jump >0.9%










faces July Samurai default test as deal deadline looms













given 48 Hours to reach deal as EU leaders weigh debt.