Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Economic News , Data and Views ( May 19 , 2015 ) - Greece Updates ( Creditor Talks Update , Polls show Syriza still holding large lead over New Democracy , Tourist Arrival Data Increases for April and 4 month average , Local Gov'ts not providing reserves according to Plan ) ...... Broader Europe - UK in Deflation , EU extends Russia Sanctions , ECB's Coeure and Noyer sound dovish notes , Euro heads lower , Bunds have a better morning , Germany / Austria item re: Creditor Talks with Greece , additional items of note )


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Greece....



Greece-Creditors Differ on Negotiation Progress




Greek Opinion Poll: SYRIZA Holds Significant Lead Over New Democracy




international tourist arrivals +6.6% in Apr and +17.5% in 4-month (from +28.8% in Q1), acc to SETE.





Proposed overhaul a stepping stone towards agreement with lenders?




: government plan to draw on local governments’ reserves seems to be failing





Broader Europe......





EUR/USD now *below* the level assumed by staff in March (1.13). Staff forecasts likely to be revised higher in June.








GERMAN ZEW MAY INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS 41.9; MEDIAN EST. 49






GERMAN OFFICIAL:EU RUSSIA SANCTIONS TO BE EXTENDED TO END 2015








UK in deflation: CPI dropped to -0.1% YoY in April, a fresh historical low and worse than consensus forecast at 0.0%.






in free fall after very dovish comments from 's Coeure and Noyer.







Noyer: ECB ready to extend Asset purchases if needed to meet inflation target. Inflation expectations already bounced






German Bunds start higher to the session. 10yr yields almost 2bps lower at 0.63 as Citi sees squeeze risk w/ QE.





EU SAYS MORE TIME, EFFORT NEEDED TO BRIDGE GAPS ON GREECE






MERKEL SAID TO SEEK TO HEAD OFF PARTY REVOLT AGAINST GREEK AID







AUSTRIAN FINMIN SCHELLING SAYS IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS GREECE THAT ATHENS CAN REACH DEAL WITH CREDITORS IN COMING DAYS







RUSSIA'S GAZPROM SAYS WILL START LAYING PIPES FOR TURKISH STREAM EARLY NEXT MONTH






: Calendar adjusted construction output fell 2.5% Y/Y in 1Q ... recovery gaining momentum!





JUNCKER RULES OUT POSSIBILITY OF GREECE AID DEAL IN RIGA






COEURE SAYS DEPOSIT RATE CAN IN THEORY BE EVEN MORE NEGATIVE






COEURE SAYS ECB TO ACCELERATE QE NOW BEFORE SUMMER MARKET LULL






Overnight // VAROUFAKIS: POTENTIAL REFERENDUM WOULD BE ABOUT EURO MEMBERSHIP






This chart shows why Bund yields will not rise further as there were too few sellers as the buys. (via Citi)