Economic Recovery ?
GDP Disaster: Final Q1 GDP Crashes To -2.9%, Lowest Since 2009, Far Below The Worst Expectations
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/25/2014 08:41 -0400
Remember when in January 2014, Q1 GDP was expected to rise 2.0%? Well, here comes the final Q1 GDP revision and it's a doozy: at -2.9%, far below the -1.8% expected and well below the -1.0% second revision, it is an absolute disaster, and is the worst print since Q1 2009.
And while a bad GDP print was largely expected, the driver wasn't: personal consumption expenditures somehow crashed from 3.1% to just 1.0%, far below the 2.4% expected, meaning that all hope of a consumer recovery is dead. Finally, as a reminder, US GDP has never fallen more than 1.5% except during or just before an NBER-defined recession since quarterly GDP records began in 1947. Good luck department of truth propaganda machine.
And GDP broken down by components:
For some context, this is a 6 standard deviation miss - as economists were striongly biased to the upside beat...
Do you believe in miracles?
Source: Dept of Commerce
Durable Goods Orders Tumble; Biggest Miss In 2014
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/25/2014 08:36 -0400
Following last month's far-stronger-than-expected 'defense-spending-stuffed' Durable Goods orders, which were subsequently revised downwards, they plunged in May (at the heart of Q2 GDP creation). Against expectations of no gain, Durable Goods Orders tumbled 1.0% - the biggest miss in 2014. It seems the brief bounce back from weather has now gone entirely as it seems no submarines were ordered this month or excess Blackhawks to save the day. Not exactly great news for Q2 GDP (especially after the Q1 collapse). New orders ex transportation dropped for the first time since January - again hardly differentiating Q1 'weather' from Q2 'rebound'.