Syria......
Earlier in the week, the talk was of dramatic escalations of arms to rebel factions and possibly the establishment of a no-fly zone. Now, the talks are also said to include the possibility of “limited” US strikes.
http://www.debka.com/article/23692/Obama%E2%80%99s-Iran-policy-wins-key-point-Saudis-drop-its-lead-antagonist-Prince-Bandar
For Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu, this counts significantly as the loss of the only other Middle East leader ready to publicly decry President Obama’s policies on Iran and Syria as promoting the negative forces in the region and damaging to America’s own interests.
Prince Bandar was widely reported in the Middle East to be in secret ties with Israeli intelligence on Saudi and Israeli moves against Iran. Tehran claimed more than once that he had paid clandestine visits to Tel Aviv. Those ties, such as they were, may be presumed to have been discontinued following his removal.
Bandar never arrived in Washington and no one in Riyadh was ready to answer questions about his whereabouts. US sources were more forthcoming - although less complimentary. In some reports he was dismissed as “hotheaded” or “erratic.”
The most striking evidence of his comedown came from his absence from the secret conclave held recently by Middle East intelligence chiefs to coordinate their positions on Syrian with Washington.
Instead of Prince Bandar, his seat was taken by his leading adversary on Syria, the Saudi Interior Minister, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef.
Now, a faction calling itself the Islamic Law Council of Deir Ezzor has issued a new statementdemanding all women in their territory wear face veils at all times in public, threatening “punishment” to those who resist after Saturday.
The aid delivery didn’t go nearly as well as planned, however, as starving refugees flooded the distribution center, and UNRWA workers refused to hand anything out for several hours until order was restored. By then, the day was almost over and they soon left.
The compromise bill, penned by Australia, Jordan and Luxembourg and based heavily on Russia’s own draft, is urging all sides to lift restrictions on aid shipments, threatening sanctions on an individual basis against those who block shipments.
http://www.juancole.com/2014/02/breakthrough-ignoring-stockpile.html
Iran had been performing 20 percent enrichment to make fuel for the US-built Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), but has stopped the enrichment and is converting its stockpile into fuel. The stockpile peaked at 196 kg in November and is down to 161 kg.
EU diplomatic chief Catherine Ashton termed the talks “three very productive days” and said a timetable for four more months of talks on all of the issues involved in the deal were agreed to.
Sherman insisted the US has done everything they promised as well, though since one of their promises was no new sanctions throughout the deal and hawks in Congress are still pushing those sanctions, that remains speculative.
Obama Looks to Escalate Military Role in Syria
Officials Mull 'Limited Strikes' on Syria
by Jason Ditz, February 20, 2014
After failing to sell the American public on a full-scale invasion of Syria, President Obama let the matter drop, briefly at least. Now, officials are mulling ways to escalate their military involvement in the nation again.
Earlier in the week, the talk was of dramatic escalations of arms to rebel factions and possibly the establishment of a no-fly zone. Now, the talks are also said to include the possibility of “limited” US strikes.
The theory is that such strikes would be palatable to the American public, especially if they focused on al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). Officials are said to be exploring the “risks” of such a strike sucking the US military into deeper involvement in the war.
Which of course is likely the whole idea. The administration was so determined to invade in the past they argued that American public opposition was irrelevant, and after finally relenting in the face of such overwhelming opposition, many in the administration would like nothing more than to backdoor America into the war after all.
http://www.debka.com/article/23692/Obama%E2%80%99s-Iran-policy-wins-key-point-Saudis-drop-its-lead-antagonist-Prince-Bandar
The live wire of the Saudi royal house’s drive against President Barack Obama’s détente with Tehran has been dropped. Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Saudi Arabia’s National Security Adviser and Intelligence Director, has not been seen for more than a month. He was reported by DEBKAfile’s US and Saudi sources Wednesday, Feb. 19, to have been removed from the tight policy-making circle in Riyadh.
For Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu, this counts significantly as the loss of the only other Middle East leader ready to publicly decry President Obama’s policies on Iran and Syria as promoting the negative forces in the region and damaging to America’s own interests.
As recently as Tuesday, Netanyahu declared: “I would like to tell the world today that Iran has changed neither its aggressive policy nor its brutal character... Iran continues to support the Assad regime which is slaughtering its own people.”
Prince Bandar was widely reported in the Middle East to be in secret ties with Israeli intelligence on Saudi and Israeli moves against Iran. Tehran claimed more than once that he had paid clandestine visits to Tel Aviv. Those ties, such as they were, may be presumed to have been discontinued following his removal.
There has been no official word from Riyadh disclosing any change in Bandar’s status. Our sources report that the prince, a long-serving ambassador to the United States, vanished off Saudi and Middle East radar screens in mid-January, shortly before he was scheduled to visit Washington to arrange President Obama’s forthcoming trip to Riyadh in the last week of March.
Bandar never arrived in Washington and no one in Riyadh was ready to answer questions about his whereabouts. US sources were more forthcoming - although less complimentary. In some reports he was dismissed as “hotheaded” or “erratic.”
The Saudi intelligence chief crossed the Americans by supplying weapons and money to Syrian rebels belonging to Islamist militias – though not al Qaeda. He was the driving force behind the formation of the Islamic Front coalition, which last month beat the Free Syrian Army backed by Washington into the ground.
Some Gulf sources say he is paying the price for the kingdom’s failure in Syria. Bandar promised King Abdullah that he would take care of getting rid of Bashar Assad. He not only fell down on this task, but he generated a clash between the Obama administration and the Saudi throne on the Syrian issue, say those sources.
Some Gulf sources say he is paying the price for the kingdom’s failure in Syria. Bandar promised King Abdullah that he would take care of getting rid of Bashar Assad. He not only fell down on this task, but he generated a clash between the Obama administration and the Saudi throne on the Syrian issue, say those sources.
The most striking evidence of his comedown came from his absence from the secret conclave held recently by Middle East intelligence chiefs to coordinate their positions on Syrian with Washington.
Instead of Prince Bandar, his seat was taken by his leading adversary on Syria, the Saudi Interior Minister, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef.
Prince Mohammed is a favorite at the White House and a close friend of Secretary of State John Kerry and CIA Director John Brennan.
The Saudi interior minister, by taking Bandar’s place at this important forum, may also be stepping into his shoes as intelligence chief – albeit without the formality of an official notice from Riyadh.
Women in East Syria Forced to Wear Veils as Islamist Rebels Spread
Deir Ezzor Rebels Vow to 'Prevent Vice'
by Jason Ditz, February 19, 2014
Salafist rebels imposing harsh interpretations of Sharia law on the locals is old news in northern Syria, where al-Qaeda factions rule large portions of the region. Their sway is growing elsewhere in the nation, however.
Now, a faction calling itself the Islamic Law Council of Deir Ezzor has issued a new statementdemanding all women in their territory wear face veils at all times in public, threatening “punishment” to those who resist after Saturday.
The Islamic Law Council is a faction within the Islamic Front, the so-called moderate Islamist rebels. The group’s statement also claimed “sins are the main reason delaying victory” and promised to “prevent vice.”
Across much of rebel-held Syria, women are facing increasing severe restrictions on going out in public. This is a major change from the secular society Syria has been for decades .
On Syria, Obama Dons His Interventionist Cap – Again
John Glaser, February 19, 2014
The United States met secretly this week with spy chiefs from Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The subject was the Syrian civil war and how to better support the rebels, which are by and large al-Qaeda-linked jihadists.
David Ignatius at the Washington Post:
Western and Arab intelligence services that support Syria’s struggling opposition gathered for a two-day strategy meeting in Washington last week that appears to signal a stronger effort to back the rebels.The spymasters’ conclave featured Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, Saudi Arabia’s minister of the interior, who will now supervise the kingdom’s leading role in the covert-action program.
The Nation‘s Bob Dreyfus says this is “a sign that the [Obama] administration’s commitment to diplomacy is fading, and that Obama is prepared to let the covert operators go to work with a freer leash.”
“Sources” told David Ignatius that these Arab countries “agreed to coordinate their aid so that it goes directly to moderate fighters rather than leeching away to extremists of the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).”
That is not a credible promise. For years now, aid from Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE has been going to Sunni extremists and most likely contributed significant military and political gains of the al-Qaeda-linked jihadist groups, over the less popular and less numerous “moderate” groups. Even if these regimes were sincere in their efforts to keep lethal aid from al-Qaeda-linked groups (which is dubious) the logistical challenges associated with making sure only “moderate” rebels get the aid are steep enough to doubt such a covert program’s effectiveness.
Ignatius even explains how “aid flows have been disrupted by political infighting between Turkey and Qatar, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and Jordan, on the other.” Extremists got their hands on this aid in any case: “The situation has been especially chaotic in northern Syria, south of the Turkish border, where the al-Qaeda affiliates have taken advantage of the confusion.”
In addition to this, Ignatius also notes, the CIA has been covertly training and arming Syrian rebels inside Jordan.
One would have thought we were passed this. After the failed effort in Washington to boost support for Syrian rebels and the bumbling screw up that was the Obama administration’s quickly-aborted plan to bomb Syria, it seemed as if power brokers in the White House and Capitol Hill came to grips with the fact that there were no good options. A no-fly zone would worsen the humanitarian situation and produce a dangerous power vacuum with the end of the Assad regime and boosting arms supplies to the rebels seemed dumber and dumber due to the increasingly extremist make-up of the opposition. The political science literature is pretty clear on this: civil wars in which competing foreign powers support both sides tend to last longer and reach stalemate, making both the humanitarian and the strategic circumstances all the worse.
Given these realities, the Obama administration’s continued efforts to meddle in the Syrian civil war lack common sense. It won’t save lives (as liberal interventionists are wont to claim as their motivation) and it will either produce further stalemate or, although it’s extremely unlikely, generate the collapse of the Assad regime (which would consequently increase the position of jihadist groups). None of these are desirable outcomes.
The New York Times speculated the other day about why the Obama administration was apparently changing its mind on more active support for the rebels: “Mr. Obama’s apparent willingness to drop objections to supplying the rebel groups with heavier weapons may simply be an acknowledgment that Saudi Arabia and gulf states that are frustrated with American policy are now prepared to do so anyway, without Washington’s blessing.”
Ah yes, Saudi Arabia – the tail that wags the dog. Either that or Obama’s ‘do-something’ mindset simply hasn’t yet been exhausted.
Syria Enemies Cross the Front Lines in Damascus. But Will the Truce Hold?
It is a surprising sight but one that may become more common in Damascus. Under the terms of a local ceasefire in the outlying district of Babbila in the south of the capital, armed members of the rebel Free Syrian Army mingle with Syrian soldiers and appear on friendly terms. The images show fighters from both sides talking and joking together.
Residents of the neighbourhood were said to be “overjoyed” by the truce. According to the AFP news agency, a group began chanting: “One, one, one! The Syrian people are one!”
The inside of the district, long under siege and bombarded by the army, will be policed by the FSA. Inhabitants who appear on the streets look overjoyed that for the moment the danger is over.
The terms of the truce in Babbila, assuming it is similar to that negotiated in other former rebel strongholds like Barzeh and Muadamiyat, provide for the FSA to hand over heavy weapons, but its fighters will stay in Babbila or can join the army. There will be a mixed FSA/army checkpoint at the entrance to Babbila and the army will not enter the district where the FSA will retain some of its positions in case the truce is broken. The government guarantees a rebuilding programme.
The main street is full of half-ruined buildings hit by artillery, but the government agrees to reconnect the water and electricity supply and reopen roads.
How far are these ceasefires and truces the shape of things to come? There are some aspects of these agreements that are very important, such as the release of prisoners in Barzeh, which late last month the local FSA commander told The Independent the government had not complied with. In most of these areas the majority of the people fled the shelling long ago and are likely to return to find their houses in ruins. It is not clear how far they will be compensated.
The government’s main strategy in dealing with rebel-held areas in Damascus has been to surround them with checkpoints, cut off water and electricity and bombard them. They have not, except when they are close to strategic roads, sent in ground troops to storm them; that would lead to casualties that government forces can ill-afford. Local people are weary and generally eager to see an end to the fighting.
The truces are taking places in the smaller and more isolated rebel enclaves. Bigger ones, like Eastern Ghouta, with a present population estimated by the UN to number 145,000, are more likely to continue to resist because the rebel fighters may be hardcore Islamists such as al-Qa’ida-linked Jabhat al-Nusra. Bigger areas are also more likely to have better supplies of food and are more difficult to isolate effectively.
Syria rebel commanders reject leadership shakeup
BEIRUT (AP) — The former leader of the Western-backed Syrian opposition’s military wing on Wednesday rejected his recent dismissal, and along with more than a dozen senior insurgent commanders severed ties with the political opposition-in-exile, further fragmenting the notoriously divided rebel movement.
The statement from Gen. Salim Idris comes two days after the opposition Syrian National Coalition announced that Idris had been sacked as head of the Supreme Military Council and replaced by Brig. Gen. Abdul-Ilah al-Bashir — an experienced, moderate field commander from southern Syria. The move was widely seen as an attempt to restructure the military council and to persuade Western allies to boost their support for mainstream rebels trying to oust President Bashar Assad.
Moderate opposition fighters have been eclipsed over the past year by ultraconservative Islamic groups and extremist factions that have emerged as the most powerful brigades on the rebel side.
But the move also holds the potential to further fracture rebel ranks and sap what little strength the military council currently has.
In a video posted online Wednesday, Idris said that after consulting with forces inside Syria, he and the 15 other signatories of the statement were breaking ties with the council and the opposition’s political leadership.
‘‘We stress that all that emanates from them does not concern us in any way,’’ he said, reading from the statement.
Sitting at the head of a table and flanked by men dressed in fatigues, Idris said he has been asked to overhaul the rebel military leadership, and called on all rebel forces on the ground to rally under his command. He also accused some members of the political and military opposition of making decisions based on ‘‘individual and personal interests.’’
Most of the other men in the video could not be immediately identified, but among the statement’s signatories were regional front commanders.
It was not clear what impact Idris’ break with the council and the political opposition abroad would have, or whether the rift caused by the general’s dismissal could be mended.
But the Coalition sought to head off any dispute over the council’s leadership, issuing a statement late Wednesday reaffirming al-Bashir’s appointment. It also confirmed that al-Bashir was assuming his new duties immediately.
Still, Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center, described Idris’ move as a potentially significant development.
‘‘He appears to enjoy the support of a wide range of senior commanders whose zones of command cross Syria,’’ Lister said by email. ‘‘Until the dust settles, this essentially leaves Syria with two military opposition councils,’’ — one under Idris and another al-Bashir.
And the longer the division continues, he said, ‘‘the more dangerous it could be for the long-term viability of the SMC.’’
Idris was named the head of the Supreme Military Council shortly after it was formed in late 2012. During his time in command, Idris, a secular-leaning moderate, was criticized by many in the opposition for being ineffective and lost the confidence of the U.S. and its allies, particularly after Islamic extremists seized a weapons depot from moderate rebels.
Washington and its European allies have long tried to mold the Council’s Free Syrian Army into an effective partner inside Syria. But the loose umbrella group was always seen as weak, with Western and Arab allies dithering over whether to give them powerful weapons. The group eventually fell into disarray and in the past year has been overshadowed by more powerful Islamic groups and the rise of al-Qaida-inspired extremist factions.
Inside Syria, meanwhile, an official with the Syrian Arab Red Crescent said aid workers have evacuated 11 more people, mostly Christians, from besieged areas in the central city of Homs.
Khaled Erksoussi, head of operations for the Red Crescent, said the 11 left rebel-held districts in Old Homs that have been under government blockade for more than a year. Government and rebel fighters are battling for control of Homs, Syria’s third largest city.
More than 1,000 people have been evacuated from Homs since a humanitarian truce went into effect on Feb.7.
At U.N. headquarters in New York, Security Council ambassadors negotiated behind closed doors into the early evening again Wednesday on the text of a resolution aimed at getting immediate access to all areas of Syria to deliver desperately needed humanitarian aid to millions in need.Continued...
UN Food Aid to Syria Refugee Camp Resumes After Rebels Withdraw
Residents Stormed Distribution Center
by Jason Ditz, February 19, 2014
UNRWA food deliveries entered the Yarmouk Refugee Camp in Damascus today, the first since Jabhat al-Nusra rebels were reported to have left the camp, which has seen rampant food shortages and even some starvation deaths.
The aid delivery didn’t go nearly as well as planned, however, as starving refugees flooded the distribution center, and UNRWA workers refused to hand anything out for several hours until order was restored. By then, the day was almost over and they soon left.
Civilians trapped in the camp were none too happy with the chaotic scene, demanding the UNRWA make the food distribution more efficient, and calling for refugees to be allowed out of the camp and back to normal civilian life.
Yarmouk is a refugee camp for displaced Palestinians, but before the civil war was largely treated as just another neighborhood in the capital, with Syrians as well as Palestinians living there and people free to come and go as they pleased.
When the rebels took over the camp, a large number of Palestinians fled to neighboring Lebanon. They’ve had a hard time there as well, but nowhere near as bad as those who remained in Yarmouk, which had been held by Islamist rebels for over a year now.
UN Vote on Syria Aid Could Happen This Week
Australia, Jordan Pushing Compromise Draft
by Jason Ditz, February 19, 2014
After the initial Britain-France draft on humanitarian aid for Syria got loaded down with threats of sanctions and military action against the Assad government and rejected by Russia and China, a compromise draft bill is making the rounds.
The compromise bill, penned by Australia, Jordan and Luxembourg and based heavily on Russia’s own draft, is urging all sides to lift restrictions on aid shipments, threatening sanctions on an individual basis against those who block shipments.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says a deal on the final language of the bill could happen as soon as this week so long as no one tries to “politicize the issue” or put in any “one-sided” language.
In addition to threats of military action, Russia has objected to text in past proposals that had nothing to do with the aid itself, but presented a narrative about the civil war which put the blame virtually exclusive on the Assad government.
Iraq........
AQI has been taking over increasing amounts of territory in recent weeks, including large portions of the Anbar Province and more recently the town of Sulaiman Bek.
Iraq Offers $17,200 Per Killed ‘Foreign Militant’
Also Offers Bounty for Captures
by Jason Ditz, February 20, 2014
Increasingly desperate to get a handle on the surging al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) seizure of territory, Iraq has announced a bounty of $17,200 for each foreign militant linked to AQI killed, and another $25,800 for each captured.
AQI has been taking over increasing amounts of territory in recent weeks, including large portions of the Anbar Province and more recently the town of Sulaiman Bek.
The bounty announcement comes in the wake of pledges by the Maliki government of millions of dollars in cash and weapons to Sunni militias in return for fighting AQI in Anbar.
The plan is risky, however, as Iraq has struggled with corruption for years, and the offer of cash for “dead foreign fighters” may encourage cash-starved militias to kill random foreigners and try to pass them off as AQI.
87 Killed, 121 Wounded in Ongoing Iraq Bloodshed
by Margaret Griffis, February 19, 2014
The violence was spread far and wide today. Bombings took place in several cities. Security operations against militants also too place throughout the country. At least 87 people were killed and 121 more were wounded.
In Ramadi, a sniper killed a soldier. Clashes left another soldier dead and three wounded.
Shelling in Falluja killed a woman and a child, while also wounding four others. Two more people were reported killed in shelling; seven others were reported wounded.
Security operations in Suleiman Bek left 20 militants dead, but parts of the city are still under their control.
Militants attempted to storm Garma, in Anbar province, but were repelled during ensuing clashes.
A bomb at a Mahmoudiya vegetable market killed six people and wound 18 more.
In Tuz Khormato, a bomb targeting Salah ad Din’s police chief killed a bodyguard instead and wounded two more. Also, two Iraqi helicopters were shot at. Baghdad accused Peshmerga fighters, but they denied being involved. A bomb left two dead and 18 wounded.
Three people were killed and 20 more were wounded in Dujail when a car bomb exploded at a market.
In Baghdad, two people were killed and seven others were wounded by a blast at a souk in Amil. A sticky bomb left on a car in Nahda wounded the driver critically. In Doura, four civilians were wounded in a bombing. A civilian was killed in Ghazaliya.
In Mosul, a sniper wounded an army lieutenant. A bomb wounded five civilians. Gunmen killed two taxi drivers. A soldier and four women were wounded in a small arms attack. A bomb wounded seven civilians.
Four soldiers were killed and three more were wounded in a roadside bombing inKhalis.
Gunmen near Baquba killed three soldiers and wounded five more at dawn. Apoliceman was killed and another was wounded at a checkpoint.
A policeman and a gunman were killed in a clash in Imam Weis.
A police officer was shot to death in Albu Ajil.
Seven gunmen were killed during operations in Shura.
Twelve militants were killed in clashes in Jbela.
In Jurf al-Sakhar, seven gunmen were killed.
In Sadr City, a sniper apparently killed a goalkeeper during a game. A bombwounded the driver of an oil tanker.
A government employee was shot dead in Madaen.
A Sahwa member was killed near Tikrit.
The head of the Turkmen Front was targeting in a bombing in Kirkuk that wounded two civilians instead. Two I.E.D.s wounded six policemen.
A bomb in Aldor killed four people.
Iran.......
US television newscasters have often slipped up and spoken of an Iranian nuclear “weapons program,” even though no UN inspectors have found firm evidence of any such thing and Iran maintains that its program is for peaceful purposes.
Now that there is positive evidence of thorough Iranian cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, US television news is ignoring a clear sign that Iran is hewing to the breakthrough agreement of last November. I’m saying this should be a headline on tv news but it is not:
Reuters reports that the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that Iran is abiding by the commitments it made last November to mothball its enrichment of uranium to 19.25 percent for its medical reactor, to produce isotopes for treating cancer. Iran committed to ceasing enrichment to that level, sticking to enriching to 5 percent, the level needed for fuel for Iran’s three Bushehr nuclear reactors.
“Its report said Iran’s most sensitive nuclear stockpile – uranium refined to a fissile concentration of 20 percent . . . had declined significantly for the first time in four years and was now well below the amount needed for one bomb, if processed to a high degree.Since halting this enrichment under last year’s deal, Iran has diluted some of the material to lower-level uranium and converted some into a less proliferation-sensitive oxide form.”
Western powers, including Israel, were worried that with gas centrifuge enrichment technology, it is slightly easier to enrich uranium already at 19.25% to the 95% level of enrichment needed for an atomic bomb than it would be to bring 5% enriched uranium all the way up to bomb grade. That Iran’s stockpile of low enriched uranium at the 19.25% level has fallen for the first time in the past few years, and is now below the amount that would be needed for a bomb if it were enriched to 95% should be a major advance in allaying Western fears.
In fact, Iran lacks the capacity to take the 19.25% enriched uranium up to bomb grade, and there is no evidence that it has solved the many thorny technical problems involved in bomb-making.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly ruled that producing, stockpiling and using nuclear weapons is contrary to Islamic law and has forbidden weaponization of Iran’s enrichment program. As a religious leader, Khamenei would suffer severe loss of credibility if he gave these rulings and then secretly tried to make a bomb. Western journalists are mostly secular in outlook and do not understand Shiite Islam, and so they tend to dismiss Khamenei’s rulings as unimportant or dishonest. Israeli hawks and their American fellow travelers have also tried to muddy the waters on this issue.
The IAEA said last week that “Iran has taken the initial practical measures that were foreseen” in the November agreement on six practical measures Iran was to take to reassure the West of the peaceful character of its civilian nuclear enrichment program:
On 8 and 9 February 2014, the Agency and the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran) held constructive technical meetings within the Framework for Cooperation that was agreed between the parties last November.During the meetings, the two sides reviewed progress on the implementation of the six initial practical measures that were agreed three months ago. Iran has taken the initial practical measures that were foreseen.Iran and the Agency reached agreement on seven practical measures to be implemented by Iran by 15 May 2014.The agreed measures are:Providing mutually agreed relevant information and managed access to the Saghand mine in Yazd;
Providing mutually agreed relevant information and managed access to the Ardakan concentration plant;
Submission of an updated Design Information Questionnaire (DIQ) for the IR-40 Reactor;
Taking steps to agree with the Agency on the conclusion of a Safeguards Approach for the IR-40 Reactor;
Providing mutually agreed relevant information and arranging for a technical visit to Lashkar Ab’ad Laser Centre;
Providing information on source material, which has not reached the composition and purity suitable for fuel fabrication or for being isotopically enriched, including imports of such material and on Iran’s extraction of uranium from phosphates; and
Providing information and explanations for the Agency to assess Iran’s stated need or application for the development of Exploding Bridge Wire detonators.
There has been a rash of articles about how difficult the negotiations of the UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany are and how unlikely they are to succeed.
But these pieces are burying the lede. The IAEA, which has been hostile to Iran under the leadership of Yukiya Amano, is saying that Iran is fulfilling its side of the bargain so far and that a key source of anxiety, the stockpile of 19.25% LEU, is no longer worrisome.
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Related video
IAEA: Iran Sticking to Deal, Reducing Uranium Stockpile
Levels Drop on 20 Percent Enriched Uranium
by Jason Ditz, February 20, 2014
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest report on Iran’s nuclear program shows that the nation is meeting its commitments for the interim P5+1 nuclear deal, and is reducing its stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium.
Iran had been performing 20 percent enrichment to make fuel for the US-built Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), but has stopped the enrichment and is converting its stockpile into fuel. The stockpile peaked at 196 kg in November and is down to 161 kg.
20 percent is well short of weapons-grade uranium, but was the highest enrichment Iran was doing by far. Its 5 percent enrichment program, for the Russian-built Bushehr Power Plant, continues to run and its stockpile of that level increased slightly over the quarter, as construction of one of the processing plants for fuel saw a delay.
The IAEA report confirmed Iran’s enrichment is at levels in keeping with the P5+1 deal, and that it has not installed any new centrifuges nor installed any components to the Arak reactor, per the six month deal.
Iran Nuclear Talks Reach Framework on Permanent Deal
'Three Productive Days' End With a Plan for Months of Talks
by Jason Ditz, February 20, 2014
The P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran finished today in Vienna, capping off the first round of talks on a permanent nuclear deal with a “framework for comprehensive negotiations” governing the path to a final settlement.
EU diplomatic chief Catherine Ashton termed the talks “three very productive days” and said a timetable for four more months of talks on all of the issues involved in the deal were agreed to.
Officials on both sides of the negotiating table were pessimisticgoing into the Vienna talks, the first since the interim P5+1 deal went into effect. With the interim deal going well, there seems to be some momentum to keep pushing forward on a settlement.
The next round of talks will be technical in nature, and the next diplomatic meeting related to the framework deal has been set for March 17, also in Vienna.
Nuclear deal needed before lifting all Iran sanctions – US official
The US wants to see all sanctions on Iran lifted but that can only happen "in total" after a comprehensive deal on Tehran's nuclear program is reached, Reuters quoted a senior US official as saying on Thursday. Iran and six world powers earlier agreed a framework for negotiations on the nuclear dispute in the coming months. Most US and other sanctions on Iran remain in place despite a limited easing under an interim agreement reached between Iran and six world powers in November.
Iran, 6 world powers to meet again in March – official
Iran and six world powers have agreed on an agenda for negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program, a senior Iranian official has said. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told IRNA that the involved parties “have agreed on an agenda and a framework and the next round of talks will be in the second half of March in Vienna.”If confirmed, it would indicate an early step forward in the search for a settlement of the nuclear issue, Reuters said. Negotiators from Iran and the US, France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia have been meeting since Tuesday to hammer out an agenda for talks on a final deal.
Iran Keeping Its Promises, US Admits
State Department Downplays Chances of Further Deal
by Jason Ditz, February 19, 2014
After months of threats to really stick it to Iran if they renege on the interim P5+1 nuclear deal, US State Department official Wendy Sherman today conceded that Iran has actually done everything they promised to do under the deal.
Sherman insisted the US has done everything they promised as well, though since one of their promises was no new sanctions throughout the deal and hawks in Congress are still pushing those sanctions, that remains speculative.
Either way, Sherman continued the administration’s policy of downplaying the chances that the new talks would net a permanent nuclear settlement, saying any deal would “be very tough.”
The ongoing talks in Vienna went through their second day today, and officials say that good progress was made, though only two days into a six month process it is still awfully soon to predict a breakthrough.
Libya......
Libyan PM announces ‘compromise’ after militia ultimatum
TRIPOLI: Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan said late Tuesday a “compromise” had been reached with ex-rebel militias who had given Libya’s interim assembly a deadline to hand over power.
Powerful militias made up of former rebels from the western town of Zintan had given the General National Congress, the country’s highest political authority, a late Tuesday deadline to quit, threatening to seize any lawmaker who ignored it.
Zeidan said the deadline had been extended by 72 hours but did not give further details of the compromise, telling journalists only that “wisdom has prevailed” after discussions with representatives from the militias, the assembly and the UN.
The potential crisis arose exactly three years after the start of the Arab Spring uprising that toppled dictator Moamer Kadhafi but left the sprawling North African country with a weak central government that has struggled to impose order on former rebel brigades.
The commanders of the Zintan militias had said in a televised statement that they were giving the assembly five hours, until 1930 GMT, to “hand over power”, pointing to a February 7 end of its mandate that it had extended.
“Any member of Congress who stays will be... a legitimate target and will be arrested, then judged,” they said.
However the deadline passed with no action taken by the militias, and Zeidan — who himself was kidnapped and briefly held by armed men last year — announced the enigmatic “compromise”.
The ultimatum had triggered a meeting between the head of the UN mission to Libya, Tarek Metri, and the militias’ commanders.
“I asked them to give a chance to political dialogue on the basis of general elections being held,” Metri told AFP.
The speaker of the General National Congress, Nuri Abu Sahmein, had earlier rejected the militias’ ultimatum, calling it “a coup d’etat”.
He said the army had been ordered to act against the militias, though no unusual troop movements were observed in the capital Tripoli following the video threat.
The Zintan militias issuing the ultimatum included the Al-Qaaqaa and Al-Sawaiq brigades, two of the most powerful and well-disciplined militias in the country, both nominally loyal to the regular army.
Zintan, in the mainly Berber highlands southwest of Tripoli, was one of the bastions of the NATO-backed uprising that ended the four-decade rule of Kadhafi, who was captured and killed by rebels.
Libyans are set to vote Thursday for a panel to draft a new constitution, but the polls have aroused none of the enthusiasm that attended its first free election in July 2012.
Yielding to popular pressure in the wake of street protests, the General National Congress agreed Sunday to hold early polls to elect new transitional authorities rather than wait for the constitution to be finalised.
Discussions are still under way on institutions that might replace the body — a new congress, or a parliament and a president.
The charter is to cover key issues such as Libya’s system of government, the status of ethnic minorities and the role of Islamic sharia law.
But only 1.1 million people have registered to vote, compared with more than 2.7 million in the 2012 polls for the interim parliament, from an electoral roll of 3.4 million.
US Ambassador Deborah Jones said the United States, which took part in the NATO air campaign that helped topple Kadhafi, “supports fully the legitimacy of the transitional democratic process”.
“Use of force is not a legitimate means of changing democratically elected institutions,” she wrote on Twitter.
In a joint statement with European allies, Washington said it would “support fully the legitimacy of the transitional democratic process as outlined in the constitutional declaration of August 2011”.
Powerful militias made up of former rebels from the western town of Zintan had given the General National Congress, the country’s highest political authority, a late Tuesday deadline to quit, threatening to seize any lawmaker who ignored it.
Zeidan said the deadline had been extended by 72 hours but did not give further details of the compromise, telling journalists only that “wisdom has prevailed” after discussions with representatives from the militias, the assembly and the UN.
The potential crisis arose exactly three years after the start of the Arab Spring uprising that toppled dictator Moamer Kadhafi but left the sprawling North African country with a weak central government that has struggled to impose order on former rebel brigades.
The commanders of the Zintan militias had said in a televised statement that they were giving the assembly five hours, until 1930 GMT, to “hand over power”, pointing to a February 7 end of its mandate that it had extended.
“Any member of Congress who stays will be... a legitimate target and will be arrested, then judged,” they said.
However the deadline passed with no action taken by the militias, and Zeidan — who himself was kidnapped and briefly held by armed men last year — announced the enigmatic “compromise”.
The ultimatum had triggered a meeting between the head of the UN mission to Libya, Tarek Metri, and the militias’ commanders.
“I asked them to give a chance to political dialogue on the basis of general elections being held,” Metri told AFP.
The speaker of the General National Congress, Nuri Abu Sahmein, had earlier rejected the militias’ ultimatum, calling it “a coup d’etat”.
He said the army had been ordered to act against the militias, though no unusual troop movements were observed in the capital Tripoli following the video threat.
The Zintan militias issuing the ultimatum included the Al-Qaaqaa and Al-Sawaiq brigades, two of the most powerful and well-disciplined militias in the country, both nominally loyal to the regular army.
Zintan, in the mainly Berber highlands southwest of Tripoli, was one of the bastions of the NATO-backed uprising that ended the four-decade rule of Kadhafi, who was captured and killed by rebels.
Libyans are set to vote Thursday for a panel to draft a new constitution, but the polls have aroused none of the enthusiasm that attended its first free election in July 2012.
Yielding to popular pressure in the wake of street protests, the General National Congress agreed Sunday to hold early polls to elect new transitional authorities rather than wait for the constitution to be finalised.
Discussions are still under way on institutions that might replace the body — a new congress, or a parliament and a president.
The charter is to cover key issues such as Libya’s system of government, the status of ethnic minorities and the role of Islamic sharia law.
But only 1.1 million people have registered to vote, compared with more than 2.7 million in the 2012 polls for the interim parliament, from an electoral roll of 3.4 million.
US Ambassador Deborah Jones said the United States, which took part in the NATO air campaign that helped topple Kadhafi, “supports fully the legitimacy of the transitional democratic process”.
“Use of force is not a legitimate means of changing democratically elected institutions,” she wrote on Twitter.
In a joint statement with European allies, Washington said it would “support fully the legitimacy of the transitional democratic process as outlined in the constitutional declaration of August 2011”.
Militias' ultimatum heightens Libya tensions |
Leader of parliament calls the demand for power handover an "impending coup", as different factions compete for power.
Last updated: 19 Feb 2014 06:04
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Successive governments have relied on fighters who overthrew Gaddafi to fill Libya's security vacuum [AFP]
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| Two Libyan militias have called for the country's legislators to step down or be detained, but the head of the interim parliament has refused and called the ultimatum an impending coup. The term of the Libyan parliament, or General National Congress (GNC), expired on February 7. However, legislators voted to extend it with plans to hold new elections in the spring. Since then, hundreds of protesters have held daily demonstrations demanding the GNC be dissolved. Rival militias, which wield the real power in Libya, have lined up behind competing political factions in what has become a power struggle between Ali Zidan, Libyan's Western-backed prime minister, and Islamist factions in parliament that are trying to remove him. The ultimatum came a day after Libyans marked the third anniversary of the start of their revolution that toppled longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi but left the country with no strong central government or military. Successive governments have relied on former rebels who fought Gaddafi to fill the security vacuum, but the fighters formed armed groups that have gradually turned the country into fiefdoms independent from government authority. Prelude to standoff Al Jazeera's John Hendren, reporting from Tripoli on Tuesday, said that the militias' ultimatum was the prelude to a standoff. "Sides are beginning to align, with some militias still in support of the government," he said. "We could have a standoff. We have the potential for a confrontation, but this is just at the talking stage." Tuesday's political drama unfolded when the al-Qaaqaa and al-Sawaaq militias called on the parliament "to hand over power" by 9pm local time (19:00 GMT), saying legislators who refused to do so would be considered "usurpers" and be detained. Several militiamen appeared on TV, with one reading out the joint statement. The commander denounced Islamists, saying they are an "epidemic disease for which we will be the cure" and pledged, "in front of God and the people, that we are not and we will not be seekers of power ... but protectors of the nation until it stands on its feet to build its military and security institutions". The Libya International Network later broadcast live exercises of men in uniform with a timer counting down the five-hour period given in the ultimatum. Movement of those forces was likely to provoke rival militias in the city of Misrata into action as they back the Islamist factions in parliament. However, the ultimatum expired without major forces' deployment to the convention centre where the GNC convenes. Militias on alert Tripoli-based militias were on alert, with militia members gathered inside their camps waiting for commanders' orders. The National Forces Alliance - which is among the largest blocs in parliament and backs Zidan - distanced itself from the militias in a statement on its official Facebook page, insisting it has "no armed wings" and saying efforts to defuse the situation "requires contacting the group that delivered the statement". Many Libyans blame militias and infighting inside parliament for a lack of progress in the transition towards democracy since the revolution. Oil production, Libya's lifeline, has slowed to a trickle as armed protesters and tribesmen have seized oil ports and fields across the vast desert nation to press political and financial demands. Al-Qaeda-inspired fighters, meanwhile, are spreading. The group Ansar al-Shariah, which is believed to be behind the 2012 attack on a US diplomatic post in the eastern city of Benghazi that killed the ambassador and three other Americans, is increasing its strength not only in Benghazi, but in cities further west like Sirte and Ajdabiya. |
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