Wednesday, November 20, 2013

War watch update November 20 , 2013 - Iran , Afghanistan , Libya and Syria in focus ...

Iran....



Israel Growing Resigned to Iran Deal, But Will Still Oppose It

Israeli Officials Insist Deal May Mean War

by Jason Ditz, November 19, 2013
Israeli officials are very public in their opposition to diplomacy between the international community and Iran, but seem increasingly resigned to the idea that their shrill predictions of doom may not be enough to destroy the talks outright. Instead, they’re planning for the “day after,” and what to do if and when the P5+1 and Iran reach an interim deal, something which may well come this week.
“We will be more frustrated than before, because we were more optimistic that we would be able to convince some of the countries that this is the wrong path,” conceded MP Tzachi Hanegbi, who insisted that the campaign against diplomacy will continue even after the deal is signed and that Israel will not simply “sit on its hands” if the pact is signed.
The interim deal is designed to cover six months, during which time the P5+1 and Iran will hammer out a final pact. Expect Israel to be there every single deal, reminding everyone how against diplomacy they are, and spinning even minor bumps in the road as vindication.
That and threatening war. While Israeli leaders used to like to throw threats to attack Iran out as the triumphant close to speeches (which usually had nothing to do with Iran to start with) they are now threatening to start war not because of anything Iran is doing, but as some sort of angry retaliation for the US and others signing a deal. Though many analysts see such an attack as unlikely within the six month “interim” stage, they also say that “day 181,” when the interim pact expires, might be Israel’s last chance to start a war their leadership maintains it desperately wants.

As Talks Resume, High Hopes for Iran Deal

Iran: 'Good Chance' for Talks to Succeed

by Jason Ditz, November 19, 2013
The latest round of talks between the P5+1 and the Iranian government are set to resume on Wednesday, and after the last round ended just shy of a deal, there are high hopes that one will be reached in the next three days.
Reports have suggested that the deal that was almost reached at the last round of talks will more or less be the final agreement, with Iran offering to agree to a deal without any explicit acknowledgement of their right to enrichment, insisting the right is “self-evident” from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif says this is an “historical opportunity,” and that he believes there is a good chance for a deal to be finalized in these talks.
British Prime Minister David Cameron calling to talk to President Rouhani, the first call between British and Iranian leaders in a decade, also points to strong momentum toward a deal, though after France killed a pact last time when a signing ceremony was imminent, it’s impossible to say for sure if the pact will really be finalized this time around either.






Afghanistan.........


Kerry, Karzai Agree on Pact to Keep US Troops in Afghanistan

Deal Won't Include an 'Apology'

by Jason Ditz, November 20, 2013
According to Secretary of State John Kerry, he and Afghan President Hamid Karzai have reached a final deal on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), which will keep US troops in the nation beyond 2014, and reportedly beyond 2024 as well.
The deal, as reported yesterday, will allow night raids in “exceptional circumstances,” and will not include any specific final date, meaning that instead of a decade-long Status of Forces Agreement, the pact could keep the US in Afghanistan more or less forever.
The pact will be voted on tomorrow by the Afghan Loya Jirga, a collection of leaders which has the right to either approve or reject any agreement. The US Congress will not get such an opportunity.
Kerry is also insisting that, contrary to previous reports, there was no request for a US apology for civilian casualties or other wrongdoings in the occupation up until now. Afghan officials had suggested they want a written “admission of wrongdoing” but that it wouldn’t necessarily be called an apology, however, meaning Kerry’s comments don’t necessarily rule anything out.

















Afghan Pact Would Keep US Troops Indefinitely

US Denies That Agreement Is Finalized

by Jason Ditz, November 19, 2013
Though the US insists there are still details to be worked out, reports suggest that theBilateral Security Agreement (PDF) is more or less finalized.
The deal will reportedly allow US night raids on Afghan homes to continue in “exceptional circumstances.” There are reports about the US admitting to “mistakes” as part of the deal, though the US says it will never “apologize” for anything.
The most disturbing aspect is that while previous reports had suggested that the document would open up the US to stay beyond 2014 through 2024, indications are that there will be no such deadline, and the text explicitly says it will remain in effect “until the end of 2024 and beyond.”
The pact makes no mention of the size of the occupation force, but Afghan officials say they envision it being between 10 and 15 thousand. US officials suggested that may include NATO troops as well as US troops.

Afghans Demand Admission of US ‘Errors’

Karzai: Letter Would End Opposition to Night Raids

by Jason Ditz, November 19, 2013
The Afghan government is demanding a letter from President Obama admitting US errors during the war, along with a “display of contrition” for innocent Afghans harmed by it.
The White House is insisting that President Obama absolutely will not apologize for anything the US military has done during the occupation of Afghanistan. But is that just a semantic point?
It could be, as Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s office says that the letter would be “tantamount” to an apology but not technically an apology, and they seem fine with the US not really saying they are “sorry” for anything.
In return for the admission of some wrongdoing, Karzai will reportedly end all public opposition to US night raids, one of the most controversial aspects of the occupation, and the pact will allow them to continue unfettered.



White House: No Apology for Occupation of Afghanistan

Initial Reports Said Post-2014 Pact Included Promise of Apology

by Jason Ditz, November 19, 2013
Though initial reports from the Afghan government say that the pact on keeping US occupation forces in the country beyond 2014 included “assurances” that President Obama would issue a letter of apology for “mistakes” made during the invasion and subsequent occupation, the White House insists that will not happen.
“There is not a need for the United States to apologize to Afghanistan. Quite the contrary,” insisted Susan Rice, who said that no apology was even being considered by the White House.
Several incidents stand out particularly dramatically among Afghans, including the Kandahar massacre and the military’s burning of Qurans at Bagram. The massive civilian death toll of 12+ years of occupation is, of course, also a concern.
But war means never having to say you’re sorry, at least in the minds of Congressional hawks, who insist that an apology would be unacceptable on any grounds, and see a protracted occupation by American troops, which may now extend well beyond 2024, as the only “reward” the Afghan government needs, or will ever get.

Libya ......

Tripoli relaxes with Misratan departure, but citizens now want all other militias out too


By Libya Herald staff.
Tripoli residents celebrate the departure of Misrata forces from the capital (Photo Aimen Eljali)
Tripoli residents celebrate the departure of Misrata forces from the capital (Photo: Aimen Eljali)
Tripoli 19 November 2013
There were explosions in Tripoli this evening, but it was not the shell and smalls arm fire that people have come to dread, but the return of noisy fireworks, so beloved of people in the city.
There was a palpable sense of relief at the withdrawal of the majority of the Misratan militias within the 72-hour deadline, which ends tomorrow. Most of the last makeshift barricades had been cleared away by the afternoon.
More striking was the appearance of police at major intersections throughout the capital. Smartly turned out in new blue and white camouflage uniforms, they took control of traffic movements, even where there were functioning traffic lights.  Not only did they manage the flows of vehicles very efficiently, but the majority of motorists seemed perfectly content to do as they were being told.
There was remarkably little impatient honking and a lot of waving from people in cars as they drove past police officers, who nevertheless were being tough on traffic offenders. One driver told the Libya Herald that he had been stopped and given a talking to by an officer, when he had driven across a set of lights, three seconds before they went green.
Meanwhile the tide of popular opinion against the militias continued to run high.  At its peak, a demonstration in Algeria Square drew some 200 people, who were responding to calls from  Tripoli Local Council leader, Sadat Elbadri, to support the national security forces and protest the continued presence of all militias.
Mahmoud Tekalli, an aeronautical engineer told this newspaper that, in particular, he was supporting Elbadri: “We are calling for the activation of the police force and the army and the legitimate forces in the country” he said,  “We support the people who have the right to be protected and the institutions which are there to protect them.”
Waad Imzdawil, a cofounder of the student-oriented  Movement for Public Peace, was busy collecting signatures in the square. She said her group was “focusing on the issues which unite all Libyans”. The Tripoli engineering student continued: “We started collecting the signatures on the 1 November, before the Gharghour attacks. We want to  demonstrate to the government and the militias, through the sheer number of our supporters, that the situation has to change.”
Many in the square had been personally effected by the deaths on Friday. Black banners had been put up alongside the Libyan flag and mourners clutched pictures of those killed.
Jihad Mohammed said he had come to “get the militias out of Tripoli,” adding that they “terrorise, steal and kidnap people”. Mohammed, an immigration officer, added: “The government is very weak. They cannot protect the people. More people will come here to protest peacefully, but if the militias come again with guns, we will use guns. I am very sad and angry about what happened on Friday. Seven people from my street were killed and it damaged something inside of me.”
The crowds began to lessen at around three in the afternoon. However, this did not prevent a series of victory laps by police cars around Martyrs Square, to the cheers of onlookers. Throughout the day a large police and army presence had been noticeable in the square, where the expected demonstrations failed to materialise.
Meanwhile there were demonstrations in Tarhouna and Zliten today in support of  Tripoli and condemning the Black Friday massacre.

Iraqi diplomats “quit Tripoli for five days”


By Libya Herald staff.
The Iraqi embassy in Tripoli this evening
The Iraqi embassy in Tripoli this evening (Photo: Khaled Jebril)
Tripoli, 19 November 2013:
The Iraqi embassy in Tripoli is understood to have been closed and all staff and dependents moved to Tunis.  Guards at the building in Gurji Road, next to the Tripoli International School, told the Libya Herald that the embassy and consulate would be shut for five days.
The evacuation is understood to be related to the execution of Adel Zuwai, a Libya convicted of the killing of Iraqi citizens. News of the hanging, which took place in Baghdad on 7 November, only broke today. Zuwai’s family is particularly upset because they have been given no opportunity to reclaim his body.
The building showed no sign of activity today, though a huge new Iraqi flag continues the fly above the entrance.
Attempts to contact embassy staff by phone were unsuccessful, nor could a Libyan foreign ministry spokesman be reached this afternoon for confirmation.

Jadu brigade gives up Tripoli base


By Ashraf Abdul-Wahab.
The Tourist Police are to take control of the eastern part of the Regatta beach resort in the west Tripoli suburb of Siyahia.
The move follows two days of talks between Tripoli and Jadu local councils which agreed that it should be handed over to the Ministry of Tourism. The resort, developed by Hannibal Qaddafi, had been the Tripoli base for the Jadu Brigade after the revolution although most of the members have since long departed. However, anxious not to be tarred with the same brush as the Misratans after last weekend’s carnage in Ghargour, the brigade decided that the site should be handed over to appropriate authorities in the capital.
Tripoli Local Council has expressed its appreciation of the Jadu council’s decision to comply with its demands that the capital be free of all militias other than the police and army.
The western part of the Regatta club is being held by forces from Zintan.





Syria.....


Syria troops seize strategic town of Qara

Fall of Qara strengthens the regime's hold of a highway linking the capital to government strongholds along the coast.

Last updated: 19 Nov 2013 13:32
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State media SANA also quoted a military source saying that the army "eliminated terrorists" [EPA]
Syria troops have captured the village of Qara in the mountainous Qalamoun region along a key supply route between Damascus and Homs.
The capture of the strategic area on Tuesday comes days after pro-Assad forces launched an offensive against the town near the Lebanese border.
"After three days of fighting, the Syrian army has taken full control of Qara," a Syrian military source told AFP news agency, adding that a "large number" of rebel fighters were killed.
State media SANA also quoted a military source as saying that the army "eliminated terrorists" last gatherings and destroyed their weapons".
There was no immediate comment from rebels, who use the region around Qara to cross over from Lebanon. But regional news channel Al Mayadeen broadcast images of a reporter walking with Syrian soldiers through Qara's empty streets.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitoring group, said that the al-Nusra Front, a rebel group, had announced its withdrawal from Qara and "promised to be back soon".
The fighting in Qara, which is about 100km north of the capital, forced at least 1,700 families across the border into Lebanon, which is already hosting more than 800,000 Syrian refugees and has suffered from rising unrest linked to the Syrian conflict next door.
The UN refugee agency UNHCR estimates at least 6,000 people have fled to the Lebanese town of Arsal, near the border, since last Friday.
"Refugees have told us that they spent days living in underground shelters before deciding to flee," said Adrian Edwards, a spokesman for the UN refugee agency.
The Syrian civil war has claimed an estimated 120,000 lives and generated the biggest refugee crisis in two decades, raising fears that the conflict could spill over into volatile neighbouring states like Lebanon and Iraq.






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